“NATO’s internal conflict is a gift package for Putin”, writes the American major newspaper Washington Post in its editorial on Saturday, and warns against letting the conflict drag on.
“Putin is the only winner in the settlement to let Sweden and Finland become part of NATO,” the newspaper writes further.
Two Norwegian experts interviewed by Dagbladet share the Washington Post’s view.
– I completely agree. When Putin himself says that he finds himself at war with NATO, it is clear that the Russian president benefits from all possible divisions in NATO, says Russia and diplomacy expert Iver Neumann, director of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute.
– If the situation becomes even more deadlocked, it is very serious. NATO membership is very important for Sweden and Finland, says NTNU professor Jo Jakobsen, expert on international relations.
Accused of terrorist support
Less than three months after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, both Sweden and Finland formally submitted their NATO applications on May 18 last year.
With that, both Sweden and Finland moved away from neutrality and freedom of alliance in favor of NATO’s security umbrella.
Bitter dispute: “Stealing”
What many imagined would be a relatively quick and painless process turned out to be far more complicated when the NATO country Turkey raised a number of objections.
NATO’s 30 member states must be unanimous in order to admit new members to the alliance, but Turkey has accused Sweden in particular, but also Finland, of being havens for Kurdish terrorists.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has therefore asked for a number of concessions from Sweden, Finland and the NATO alliance in general, in exchange for Swedish and Finnish NATO membership.
– Big challenge
Swedish, Finnish and American diplomats have traveled by shuttle to Turkey. Sweden and Finland have made concessions, including deciding to resume arms sales to Turkey, and the US is now working to supply Erdogan with F-16 aircraft.
Not good enough, the Turkish president said on Saturday, as he made it clear that Turkey is not ready to approve Sweden’s NATO application at this time.
Israel and Turkey escape
– Turkey uses this as a bargaining chip and to shine a spotlight on its own interests. For Turkey, this is a great opportunity to milk the West, and especially the USA, for things that are important to them, says Jakobsen.
He describes Turkey as “the different country in NATO” because they have become increasingly assertive in foreign policy.
– Many of Turkey’s goals run counter to the goals of other Western countries. It has been, is and will continue to be a big challenge, says the NTNU professor.
May have to choose
The director of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Iver Neumann, is strongly critical of how Turkey has handled Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO application:
– What Turkey is doing now is gambling with NATO’s unity. They make a point of pressuring not only Sweden and Finland, but also the other NATO countries, which are in favor of Swedish and Finnish membership. It creates discord, that is a fact. There is also no doubt that this is harmful, says Neumann.
He believes that Turkish diplomacy, with the undiplomatic Erdogan at the helm, may in time be able to balance on a knife’s edge.
– It doesn’t take much
– Eventually you will be able to get to a point where you have to choose between Turkey and Sweden and Finland.
What speaks for Turkey’s case is that the country has been a member of NATO since 1952, and that they are an important power for NATO’s involvement in the Middle East, says Neumann.
– But now that Turkey has again and again broken with NATO’s unified line, the country is about to appear as an uncertain ally. Eventually, one may have to ask the question whether it is just as well for Turkey to leave the alliance, says Neumann.
– Will be very surprised
We are not there now, points out Neumann. However, it will be a major foreign policy blunder for Turkey if the question is even asked in the future, he believes.
– I would guess that this is what the discussions between Erdogan and his advisers are about right now, says Neumann.
The diplomacy expert describes Turkey’s diplomatic corps as “well-known for being good”. Neumann, on the other hand, is not impressed by the Turkish president.
Putin had to wait: – Erdogan’s revenge
– Erdogan is a completely different type. He pushes until he gets what he wants, or not, without any thought of negotiating with the same countries later. That’s not how you act in an alliance. There you have to pay attention to some things, in order to get other things in the future. Erdogan’s diplomats are probably frantically trying to explain to him what diplomacy really entails, says Neumann.
Both Jakobsen and Neumann believe that the conflict between Turkey on the one hand and Nato, Sweden and Finland on the other will be resolved.
– I will be very surprised if Sweden and Finland do not become members of NATO, says Jakobsen.
– Unrealistic to believe
The NTNU professor describes NATO membership as “very important” for both Sweden and Finland.
– Turkey has nothing fundamentally against them becoming NATO members, but is using the opportunity to see what they can get out of it, says Jakobsen.
– They can say no, but that will be devastating for Turkey’s position within NATO. We must also remember that Sweden and Finland have in practice been integrated into NATO for a long time.
Wants extradited dead doctor
And both Neumann and Jakobsen warn against overdramatizing the current conflict within NATO.
– In an organization as large as NATO, there will always be division and disagreement. It can be harmful that not everyone pulls in the same direction, but it is also unrealistic to believe that all NATO countries will do it all the time. We don’t need to exaggerate this division, says Jakobsen.
