Ukrainian authorities, the American think tank ISW and a former Norwegian defense chief all oppose Russia’s claims that they have launched a “successful” offensive against certain towns in Zaporizhzhya county, in the south of Ukraine.
The “offensive” was neither a proper offensive nor particularly successful, reports Ukrainian authorities and ISW.
Norwegian foreign warrior rages: – Absolutely incredible
The cities which are said to have been the target of the “offensive” are also – from a military strategic point of view – insignificant, according to the retired lieutenant-general Arne Bård Dalhaug, former chief of the Defense Staff.
– Such messages are intended for internal consumption, and unfortunately it is still the case that the impression left in Russia is that this is true, Dalhaug tells Dagbladet.
Denies the allegations
It was on Monday that the Russian-appointed leader of Zaporizhzhya county, one of four Ukrainian counties annexed by Russia last fall, claimed that Russian forces were advancing on the villages of Orikhiv and Huljajpole.
The villages are located just a few kilometers north of the front line in Zaporizhzhya, but Russian forces have made no real progress towards these towns, according to Ukrainian authorities. However, they admit that Russian forces have carried out offensive operations against the aforementioned villages.
– Live like a fucking animal
The think tank ISW, which analyzes the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine every day, describes the Russian attempts to make progress in the direction of Orikhiv and Huljajpole as “unsuccessful”.
ISW believes that the Russian claims are being spread in a propaganda context, and in particular to divert attention from Russia’s very bloody – and so far unsuccessful – offensive against Bakhmut in Donbas.
– Insignificant
Dalhaug shares that opinion, and believes that even if the Russians were to take the aforementioned villages in Zaporizhzhya, it would not mean very much.
– These are small areas, areas which are actually quite insignificant from a purely military strategic point of view, says Dalhaug.
Should even Bakhmut fall, it will not constitute a huge loss for the Ukrainian authorities, believes the expert, who between 2016 and 2019 was a civilian observer for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Ukraine.
Received a horror message – moved to tears
– Many defense lines have been established “behind” Bakhmut, so the way forward will not be open to the Russians, even if the city were to fall, says the retired lieutenant general.
He compares the Russian offensive against Bakhmut with the Russian offensive against Sievjerodonetsk and Lysytjansk last year. After intense fighting, Russian forces managed to take the twin cities, but it cost Vladimir Putin’s war machine dearly.
– In Bakhmut, in the same way as in Lysytjansk and Sievjerodonetsk, the Ukrainians can keep the war going with a weak retreat. In this way, Ukraine can inflict heavy losses on the Russians and wear them out, while they get new and better equipment and more soldiers receive training abroad, says Dalhaug.
