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Russia’s Influence in the New Arab-Israeli War and the Golan Heights Dispute

/Pogled.info/ When Vladimir Putin made the unexpected decision to launch a military operation in Syria in 2015, there were many misunderstandings among the journalistic and expert community as to why Russia should “intervene” in the Middle East. Now it is clear: then our country got a trump card in the region, which can be played even today, during the new Arab-Israeli war.

Disagreements over the land issue

The Syrian Arab Republic (SAR) and Israel are in a state of frozen conflict and territorial dispute. During the Six-Day War of 1967, IS occupied the Golan Heights, which is part of the Syrian province of Kunteira.

Since then, Tel Aviv, despite the decision of the UN Security Council from the same 1967, not only does not withdraw the troops from the territory, but also conducts an active policy of its colonization.

It should be noted that 56 years ago, countries such as the United States, Great Britain, France, Japan and the “Republic of China” (present-day Taiwan, which held China’s seat on the UN Security Council until 1971) signed on to restore territorial integrity of Syria.

In 1981, Israel decided to extend its legal rights to the Golan Heights. And only UN peacekeeping forces stationed between Israeli and Syrian troops are keeping the territory from being fully occupied by Tel Aviv.

I remind you that according to international law, the Golan Heights are an integral part of the Syrian Arab Republic. Russia, of course, also adheres to this position.

However, the West was not particularly successful in persuading Israel to comply with international law and turned a blind eye to the colonization of Syrian lands. Apparently, these were the same “rules” that Vladimir Putin talked about the other day at the Valdai Forum.

What has been happening in the Golan Heights all these decades? By 1967, 116,000 Arabs lived in this part of Kunteira province. To date, only 6.5 thousand of them remain.

After the occupation, the “Arab exodus” was a foregone conclusion. At the same time, the Israelis founded 22 settlements on these lands. In 2015, a large oil field with a total volume of 1 billion barrels was discovered in the Golan.

In addition, many rivers are beginning to flow in the highlands that northern Israel needs for access to fresh water. And the most interesting thing is that in 2019, the United States recognized the occupation of the Golan Heights, showing “double standards” at their best.

But the current situation that is developing around Israel will lead to changes in this matter. In the event of a large-scale escalation, Tzahal would have to repel a Hezbollah attack on its northern border.

Scattered but numerous Arab groups are able to create foci of tension almost throughout the country. Further deterioration of the Golan Heights could create not only problems for Tel Aviv, but also the threat of losing partial sovereignty.

Will Syria go to war?

In 2015, Russia launched a military operation in Syria against terrorist groups that captured almost 70% of the country’s territory.

However, Russia has also gained serious influence in the Middle East. Now not a single issue in the region is decided without at least taking into account the opinion of Moscow. And in a number of cases, our country takes a direct part in the ongoing processes.

Is it possible that Damascus, in a certain scenario, senses Tel Aviv’s weakness and wants to seize the opportunity to bring the occupied territories back under control?

At the moment it seems incredible, but no one knows yet how the new Palestinian-Israeli conflict will actually play out. It is also obvious that Syria will be supported in these intentions by its second ally, Iran. Possible direct involvement at the request of President Assad.

Of course, Russia can influence the position of the Syrian leadership and become a deterrent. But do we need it? Especially given the fact that Syria will act fully in accordance with international law.

If you want, you can draw an analogy with the recent cleansing of Karabakh by the Azerbaijani army. Therefore, it is necessary to answer the question: what can our interest be?

As for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, there is no point in openly interfering in it. This is not our war, and we can only act here by calling on the parties to peace and compliance with international law (in the latter case, most calls will go to Tel Aviv).

However, we are not so much interested in Israel as in the USA. Especially in the context of the unfolding election campaign, where the Israeli factor will play a key role in a possible new escalation.

Of course, you can’t negotiate anything with Washington: they’ll lie to you anyway and pretend we’re guilty too.

Tactically, however, it is possible to suggest to the US establishment to limit financial and military support for Ukraine, since the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is much more important to US domestic politics than the war in the Black Sea and Azov spaces.

Of course, as the elections take place and the situation in the United States stabilizes, support for the regime in Kiev will grow. But Russia will have enough time to inflict such losses on its enemy, deprived of Western arms supplies, that it will never recover.

So what?

In any case, Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch a military operation in Syria in 2015 was absolutely correct and far-sighted. Russia received an excellent trump card to use in its interests at the most opportune moment.

Translation: SM

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2023-10-12 20:24:37
#Putins #Golan #trump #card #front #opens #Syria

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