Russia’s Opportunistic Play in the Sahel

Russia’s increasing involvement in the Sahel region of Africa is viewed with growing concern by U.S. policymakers.It’s not a strategic master plan, but rather an opportunistic grab, capitalizing on existing vulnerabilities and frayed relationships between Sahelian nations and their customary Western allies. Instead of a well-defined regional strategy, Moscow has exploited deepening security crises and governance vacuums to expand its influence. This approach presents a direct challenge to U.S. interests and requires a recalibration of American engagement in the region.

The Sahel, a vast semi-arid region stretching across Africa, has faced a perfect storm of security challenges over the past decade. A surge in jihadist insurgencies, fueled by groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS, has destabilized entire nations. Ethno-nationalist movements seeking greater autonomy or independence have added another layer of complexity. These conflicts are further exacerbated by severe inequalities,resource scarcity,and the devastating effects of climate change. The shrinking of Lake Chad, for example, has displaced millions and intensified competition for dwindling resources, creating fertile ground for recruitment by extremist groups. These overlapping crises have created an environment ripe for political instability, leading to a series of military coups starting in 2020. Military juntas now govern Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, further complicating the geopolitical landscape and raising concerns about democratic backsliding.

France’s decade-long counterinsurgency mission, Operation Barkhane, aimed to stabilize the region but ultimately strained relations between Sahelian governments and their Western allies. While the mission achieved some tactical successes, its limited strategic impact and perceived neo-colonial undertones left it vulnerable to criticism, wich russia was quick to exploit. By offering security partnerships without the democratic or human rights preconditions typically attached to Western aid, Russia presented itself as an alternative ally to disillusioned Sahelian regimes. This narrative resonates with segments of the Sahelian population who view Western intervention with suspicion.

The Wagner Group and Africa Corps: A Model of exploitation

At the heart of Russia’s strategy in the Sahel is the deployment of quasi-private military companies,most notably the Wagner Group. This model promises unconditional security assistance, shielding military elites from domestic opposition and international pressure while together advancing Russia’s interests, such as resource extraction, political influence, and projecting great power status.However, this approach has proven largely exploitative, prioritizing short-term gains over long-term stability and development.

Far from mitigating violence, the Wagner Group’s operations have frequently enough intensified conflict dynamics, exacerbating human rights abuses and undermining local governance. Reports from organizations like Human Rights Watch have documented numerous instances of Wagner mercenaries committing atrocities against civilians, including extrajudicial killings, torture, and rape. Following the Wagner Group’s quasi-dissolution after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russia’s newly formed Africa Corps has assumed a similar role, perpetuating Moscow’s opportunistic engagement in the region. This transition raises concerns about the long-term stability and security of the Sahel, as the Africa Corps is likely to continue the Wagner Group’s exploitative practices.

The Central African Republic (CAR) serves as a prime example of the Wagner Group’s operational blueprint and its appeal to African military juntas.in 2018, Russia successfully lobbied the UN security Council for an arms embargo exemption, allowing it to deploy several hundred Wagner “instructors” to CAR’s capital, Bangui, under the guise of supporting UN peacekeeping operations. This maneuver demonstrated the Kremlin’s ability to advance its interests under a veneer of legitimacy, exploiting loopholes in international law and manipulating the narrative to its advantage.

By 2019, more than a thousand Wagner mercenaries were operating in CAR, exploiting natural resources such as gold, diamonds, and timber. This resource extraction has fueled further instability and corruption, undermining the country’s long-term development prospects. the Wagner Group has been accused of using its control over key mining areas to enrich itself and its allies, while the CAR government receives only a fraction of the profits. This blatant exploitation of natural resources further impoverishes the local population and perpetuates a cycle of violence and instability.

What set Wagner’s operations in CAR apart was the extent to which it embedded itself within the country’s political, economic, and social structures. Wagner not only provided security assistance but also exerted significant influence over the government’s decision-making processes. This level of control has raised concerns about the erosion of CAR’s sovereignty and the potential for long-term Russian influence. The Wagner Group has effectively turned CAR into a client state, dependent on Russia for its security and economic survival.

U.S. Strategic opening: A Whole-of-Government Approach

The current situation in the Sahel presents a strategic opening for the United States,provided Washington is willing to seize it. Historically, the U.S.has held a comparative advantage in the region through its capacity to deploy a whole-of-government approach, combining security assistance with long-term investments in governance, infrastructure, and economic development. This complete strategy has the potential to address the underlying drivers of instability and promote lasting development, offering a stark contrast to Russia’s narrow focus on security and resource extraction.

However, recent U.S. policy shifts have raised doubts about Washington’s future role in the Sahel. The previous management’s foreign aid freeze, coupled with rumors of downgrading U.S. Africa Command to a subcommand under U.S.European Command, suggested a diminishing U.S. footprint.These policy changes created uncertainty among U.S. partners in the region and opened the door for other actors, such as Russia, to expand their influence.The Biden administration has since reversed some of these policies,but the damage has been done,and the U.S. needs to rebuild trust and demonstrate its long-term commitment to the region.

Despite these challenges, the U.S.maintains a strategic advantage over Russia in the Sahel. To capitalize on this advantage, Washington must adopt a proactive and comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of instability and promotes sustainable development. This requires a multi-faceted strategy that includes:

• Strengthening democratic governance: supporting free and fair elections, promoting the rule of law, and strengthening civil society organizations.
• Investing in economic development: Creating jobs, improving infrastructure, and promoting sustainable agriculture.
• Addressing climate change: Helping Sahelian countries adapt to the effects of climate change and mitigate its impact.
• Providing security assistance: Training and equipping Sahelian security forces to combat terrorism and maintain stability, while ensuring respect for human rights.
• Countering Russian disinformation: Exposing Russia’s exploitative practices and promoting a more accurate narrative about U.S. engagement in the region.

Staying in the Game: U.S.Approaches to Sahel Security in 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, the U.S. faces critical choices regarding its approach to security in the sahel. Several options are on the table, each with its own set of risks and rewards:

• Continued Security Assistance: Maintaining current levels of security assistance to partner nations, focusing on counterterrorism training and equipment. This approach would signal continued U.S. commitment but may not be sufficient to address the underlying causes of instability.
• Targeted Support for Civilian security: Shifting resources towards supporting local law enforcement and community policing initiatives. This approach could help build trust between communities and security forces, but it may be less effective in combating well-armed terrorist groups.
• Regional Security Initiatives: Working with regional organizations like the African Union to develop and implement joint security strategies. This approach could promote greater regional ownership of security challenges, but it may be hampered by a lack of resources and coordination.
• Diplomatic Engagement: Prioritizing diplomatic efforts to resolve conflicts and promote political stability. This approach could be more effective in the long run, but it may require challenging compromises and a willingness to engage with actors that the U.S. has previously shunned.

The most effective approach is likely to be a combination of these strategies, tailored to the specific needs and circumstances of each country in the Sahel. The U.S. must also be prepared to adapt its approach as the situation on the ground evolves.

Strengthening partnerships with Southern Neighbors

A crucial element of any successful U.S. strategy in the Sahel is strengthening partnerships with countries bordering the region to the south.Nations like Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Benin have so far avoided the levels of instability seen further north, but they are increasingly vulnerable to spillover effects from the sahelian crisis. supporting these countries’ efforts to maintain stability and prevent the spread of extremism is essential for containing the crisis and protecting U.S. interests.

This support could take several forms, including:

• Border Security Assistance: Providing training and equipment to help these countries secure their borders and prevent the flow of arms and fighters from the Sahel.
• Intelligence Sharing: Sharing intelligence on terrorist threats and other security challenges.
• Economic Development Assistance: Investing in economic development projects to create jobs and improve living standards, reducing the appeal of extremism.
• Good Governance Programs: supporting efforts to promote good governance and combat corruption.

By working closely with these southern neighbors, the U.S. can definitely help create a buffer zone that prevents the Sahelian crisis from spreading further south, protecting U.S. interests and promoting regional stability.

Addressing the Root Causes of Instability

ultimately,the only way to achieve lasting stability in the Sahel is to address the root causes of instability. This requires a long-term commitment to addressing issues such as poverty, inequality, climate change, and weak governance. The U.S. can play a key role in this effort by:

• Investing in Education: Supporting education programs that empower young people and provide them with the skills they need to succeed in the 21st century.
• Promoting Sustainable Agriculture: Helping Sahelian farmers adopt sustainable agricultural practices that can increase food production and reduce the impact of climate change.
• Supporting Renewable Energy: Investing in renewable energy projects that can provide clean and affordable energy to communities across the Sahel.
• Strengthening Governance: Supporting efforts to promote good governance, combat corruption, and strengthen the rule of law.

These long-term investments are essential for creating a more stable and prosperous Sahel, reducing the appeal of extremism and promoting sustainable development.

The Path Forward: A Balanced Approach

The path forward for the U.S. in the Sahel requires a balanced approach that combines security assistance with long-term investments in governance, infrastructure, and economic development. This approach must be tailored to the specific needs and circumstances of each country in the region, and it must be implemented in close coordination with regional partners and international organizations. The U.S. must also be prepared to adapt its approach as the situation on the ground evolves, remaining flexible and responsive to changing circumstances.

A successful U.S. strategy in the sahel will require:

• A long-term commitment: Addressing the root causes of instability in the Sahel will take time and require a sustained commitment from the U.S.
• A comprehensive approach: Security assistance alone is not enough.The U.S. must also invest in governance, infrastructure, and economic development.
• Strong partnerships: The U.S. cannot succeed in the Sahel without working closely with regional partners and international organizations.
• Flexibility and adaptability: The situation in the Sahel is constantly evolving, and the U.S. must be prepared to adapt its approach as needed.

By adopting a balanced and comprehensive approach, the U.S. can definitely help create a more stable and prosperous sahel, protecting U.S. interests and promoting regional security.

Sahel Security in 2025: Can the U.S. Outmaneuver Russia’s Exploitative strategy? – an Expert interview

To gain further insight into the challenges and opportunities facing the U.S. in the Sahel, we spoke with Dr. Sharma, a leading expert on African security and U.S. foreign policy. Dr. Sharma provided valuable analysis on the evolving situation in the region and offered recommendations for a more effective U.S. strategy.

Here are some key takeaways from the interview: