The war in Ukraine rages on the ninth day. Experts have argued that the war is over new phase and that the invasion has escalated sharply.
President Vladimir Putin har sto bring in more forces, use more powerful weapons and hit more civilian targets. Now Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen, who is the head teacher at the Norwegian Defense College, says that Russia is also increasing the use of the air force, which has been almost absent until now.
However, not everything seems to go smoothly.
– The Russians use more planes now, but they have a lot of challenges, says Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen to TV 2.
– EXPERT: Geir Hågen Karlsen is a lieutenant colonel and head teacher at the Norwegian Defense College. Photo: Truls Aagedal / TV 2
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Poorly trained
First, Karlsen points out that the Russians have challenges with the coordination between the air and ground forces.
– In addition, airspace control is poor. The training standard for Russian pilots is also much lower than one would expect, says Karlsen.
Fourthly, he points out that there are signs that they have run out of precision bombs, so-called “smart bombs”. In short, precision bombs can be controlled using a GPS with great accuracy against selected targets.
The consequence is that they have to use “stupid bombs” without control systems.
– You have to fly low to hit targets with these. Due to Ukrainian air defense, it is likely that the Russians fly high, and then there is a risk that they will hit completely different places and civilians nearby, says Karlsen.
Putin has stated that he wants to avoid civilian losses, but Norwegian experts have refuted this.
– I do not believe what Putin says. None of what the Russians have done so far shows that they care about civilian lives. If the Russians are serious, it will take time, and it will be bloody, said Palle Ydstebø, who is lieutenant colonel and head of the section for land power at the War School, to TV 2.
A fifth challenge the Russians have is that they have made themselves vulnerable to Ukrainian forces and weapons systems.
– SWEDEN: Four Russian planes violated Swedish airspace on Wednesday, claims the Swedish Armed Forces. There were two fighters and two bombers. Photo: Swedish Air Force / TT News Agency / AP
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Marvelously poorly lubricated machinery
Researcher Ina Holst-Pedersen Kvam at the Naval Academy explained TV 2 earlier this week that the Russian air force has been virtually absent from the conflict so far.
– WITHHOLD: Ina Holst-Pedersen Kvam believes that Russia does not want to leave Ukraine in ruin. Photo: The Armed Forces
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She believes an aversion to using greater fire support could be one of the main reasons for Russian losses. However, the reason why it has failed to appear is more complex.
– On top of a strangely poorly lubricated machinery, the Russian invasion force on the one hand has made itself quite vulnerable to Ukrainian forces and weapon systems.
On the other hand, she points out that in the Kremlin there is neither interest nor need to leave the state of Ukraine and its population in complete ruin. Kvam believes that the emphasis on these considerations will probably continue to characterize the battles ahead.
Holds back the enormous firepower
In addition, Kvam points out that Russian forces do not operate in the Ukraine conflict as they would do against an equal “heavyweight” such as the United States or NATO.
Against Ukraine, in contrast, Russia is overwhelmingly superior militarily. Therefore, Russia’s air force and enormous firepower are being held back as de-escalating alternatives should other means and methods fail. And you are clearly not there yet, seen from Moscow, says Kvam.
She believes there is no doubt that Russia has a good deal left to do in combat power to ensure greater progress on the ground.
– The Ukrainian defense capability and will is impressive, but Russian military power is unfortunately larger – and the total range of available means and methods in the Russian toolbox is far at stake yet, she says.
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