/ world in the present day information/ South Caucasus is a major problem for Russia. However it’s so with all neighboring international locations, aside from Belarus. Solely with Minsk are relations basic and dependable. All the pieces else is very problematic.
It is all due to the dearth of a transparent technique. Over the previous 30 years, Russia has been transferring concurrently in three instructions:
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It sought to combine into the Western-centric world world (at first underneath any situations, after which, underneath Putin, whereas preserving independence);
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It strengthened its personal sovereignty (each within the face of the West and within the face of neighboring international locations)
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It tried to play a number one function within the post-Soviet (imperial) area and contribute partially (unsystematically, fragmentarily and inconsistently) to Eurasian integration.
All three vectors pulled the nation in several instructions and required mutually unique methods. Consequently, we ended up the place we ended up right here after the beginning of the SVO: in direct confrontation with the West over the post-Soviet area.
Nevertheless, we’re nonetheless hesitant to publicly declare the goals of the SVO of their geopolitical dimension. However it might be essential to calmly and calmly admit that we’ll combat till the whole capitulation of the Nazi regime in Kiev and the institution of direct military-political management (and that is the one that means of demilitarization and denazification) over the complete territory of the previous Ukraine. And we’re able to combat simply as a lot as is important for the Victory. This could be a readability that will instantly have an effect on our whole technique within the close to overseas: Russia won’t tolerate Russophobic regimes and tendencies on this territory wherever and underneath any circumstances.
Regardless of all our inconsistency and unsystematicism, geopolitics itself has demonstrated an important regularity in latest a long time. The territorial integrity of any post-Soviet state can solely be assured by optimistic or impartial relations with Russia. The try to go on to the aspect of the enemy (and the West is an enemy and that is an axiom of geopolitics – which is doubted is clearly ignorant or a international agent) threatens the territorial integrity of the nation that determined to take such a step.
This began again within the Nineteen Nineties – Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh (at the moment Azerbaijan had a Russophobic globalist Standard Entrance authorities), South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Transnistria remains to be frozen. South Ossetia and Abkhazia had been seceded from Georgia in response to Saakashvili’s act of aggression, instigated by Soros and globalist forces (notably Henri-Bernard Levy). Armenia underneath Pashinyan challenged Russia, and Baku, quite the opposite, acted skillfully and pleasant – consequently, Nagorno-Karabakh turned Azerbaijani as an alternative of Armenian. Whereas Kiev was multi-vector, there was Crimea, Donbass, Kherson Oblast and Zaporozhye. After that, territory after territory started to emerge from it, and since Russophobia didn’t subside and became an actual struggle with the Russian world, Ukraine will now not exist in any respect.
The West can’t assure territorial integrity to anybody on the territory of Eurasia, all its guarantees are a bluff. Sure, the West remains to be able to inflicting severe hurt to Russia – at the price of destroying a whole nation (as is now taking place with Ukraine). However to save lots of, defend, construct, create, manage one thing… This isn’t for them.
However let’s return to Transcaucasia.
If we wish actual integration of the Eurasian area, we have to have a coherent plan, not only a sequence of reactive, if typically efficient, steps. We should be proactive. In spite of everything, in truth, the West itself by no means believes in its guarantees to these international locations neighboring Russia, which take the trail of direct geopolitical Russophobia. No matter they give you, the West solely wants to begin a battle, and if consequently the ally is torn aside, dismembered and destroyed, it does not trouble them. For Russia, they’re one thing rather more. Even with out the pathos of friendship between nations, that is merely our frequent, united land. And these are peoples united with us of their historic future. Irrespective of how the traitorous elites paid by the West satisfied them in any other case.
If the West now desires to open a second entrance within the South Caucasus, particularly in gentle of the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, it will likely be fairly straightforward for them to take action.
Pashinyan, who heads Armenia, nonetheless allied with Russia, is absolutely underneath the management of the West. He betrayed Karabakh and didn’t carry a finger to guard the Armenians. He introduced the nation to break, and the West was clearly prepared for it and assisted in each manner.
However folks like Pashinyan come and go, however nations stay. Will it’s ethical for us, the Russians, to calmly watch as Armenia turns right into a bloody chaos – alongside the traces of Libya, Iraq, Syria, Ukraine?
Sitting and ready for the woke up Armenians themselves to know that such a ruler is harmful for Armenia is unproductive. They don’t get up and don’t get up, solely in our embassy they shout slogans ready by Soros and burn Russian passports. This is just one – the obvious – level of doable arson within the Caucasus.
Many concern that Turkey, which is seen as a full companion in Azerbaijan’s victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, will start to take a extra lively place in an anti-Russian method within the South Caucasus. Most frequently, these fears are exaggerated, since Turkey’s priorities are strengthening and preserving its affect within the Jap Mediterranean, within the space of the previous Ottoman Empire. And solely then – and primarily underneath the strain of NATO and the USA – does Ankara make plans for the Caucasus or the Turkic world of Eurasia. Turkey just isn’t a direct antagonist of Russia, but when the South Caucasus goes up in flames, then it will likely be each man for himself.
Anyway, we’re in a tough scenario within the South Caucasus. Actually, the West may blow it up at any second if it determined to open a second entrance. And all we’ve got to do is react. Sure, typically we do it fairly effectively – all of the enemy’s calculations crash and backfire. Occurs. However not at all times.
Due to this fact, it’s value, with out losing time, to begin a full-fledged and decisive strategic planning: what can we need to see within the South Caucasus and methods to convey this image to life? And on the identical time make a ultimate resolution concerning the complete post-Soviet area. If we need to see it as pleasant and allied and even impartial, then we’ve got to make it simply that. It will not do it by itself.
It is time for Russia to go on the offensive. In Ukraine, within the South Caucasus, in Eurasia as a complete. We want offensive realism. Plans, cool and sober evaluation and efficient, strictly focused actions.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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