Russian foreign minister arrives in China hat in hand. From Beijing’s point of view, Russia is a constantly weakening neighbor that can be dictated to with ever tougher conditions.
Sergei Lavrov gave space to Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Brics meeting in South Africa in August 2023 MARCO LONGARI / POOL
- China is a big, indirect beneficiary of the war in Ukraine. As the geopolitical situation destabilizes, problems begin to pile up for China.
- It is more important for China to revive relations with the United States than to support Russia.
- Internationally isolated Russia’s dependence on China is growing. The partnership between the countries is realized most concretely at the level of rhetoric.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit China today, Monday and tomorrow, Tuesday. Discussions with the Chinese Foreign Minister are planned Wang Yin with.
The agenda of the visit is said to be to exchange views on several “burning topics”, such as the crisis in Ukraine and the situation in Asia and the Pacific.
The ministers are scheduled to discuss issues related to bilateral cooperation and cooperation in international contexts.
Russia has sought to strengthen its relationship with China since it launched its full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022.
Last year, during his visit to Moscow, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that the friendship between the two countries is limitless.
However, this is not the case.
According to East Asia researcher Teppo Turki, the issue is rhetoric. The war in Ukraine is currently doing more harm than good to China. The consequences of the war no longer support China’s global interests.
China has balanced the interpretations of the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries so successfully that Turkey describes it as the biggest beneficiary of the war in Ukraine so far and the indirect “winner” of Russia’s war of aggression.
– Beijing has watched with joy how the US’s political attention, financial support and the flow of resources go to Europe and the Ukrainian fronts.
At the same time as the number of US troops and military presence in Europe is getting stronger, US investments in Asia are slowing down.
China’s problems
– At the same time, in terms of Chinese trade, the Suez Canal should remain safe and open. Now the Houthi rebels are firing on cargo ships. China has also been included as part of the “axis of evil” together with Iran, Russia and North Korea, Turkey says.
The strategic competition between China and the United States forces small and medium-sized countries to choose sides. Investments in China have also decreased.
The deepening of the Gaza crisis weakens China’s active implementation of Middle East policy.
In addition, the closer cooperation and rapprochement between Russia and North Korea is a problem for China, according to Turkey, because it changes the balance of power in the region.
Normalization of relations with the United States a priority
According to Turkey, China and the United States are going through a phase of calming relations. There are several background processes going on behind the scenes, which aim to normalize the situation between the countries.
This is a priority for China above all others.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi for the last time in October last year. Stella Pictures
In Turkey’s opinion, it is very noteworthy that at the same time as Lavrov, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is visiting China, meeting with the country’s top political leadership.
A simultaneous visit is a wet rag against Lavrov’s face.
– In this situation, China does not want to crisis its relationship with the United States or Europe. Russia has ended up in the position of the underdog, says Turkey.
Lavrov’s visit can be seen as Russia’s cry for help. Trade with China is a lifeline for the Kremlin to stay afloat.
– China is making the most of this. Beijing has promoted its own currency, the renminbi, as a trading tool. The Kremlin has been forced to sell its foreign exchange reserves, which has strengthened the position of the renminbi.
According to Turkey, Russia is currently the third largest user of Chinese currency in the world. Russian banks such as Sperbank and VTB have redefined their loans in Chinese currency.
What does China want from Russia?
In order to finance the war and to maintain the country’s deteriorating economy, Russia is forced to sell oil and gas to the east and to China at ever cheaper prices.
However, China rejected the construction of the Siberia II gas pipeline coming from Russia, on the grounds that it was not economically viable.
According to Turkey, China has progressed so far in its green transition that it will need less and less Russian energy in the future. This hits Russia hard.
Russia is still an important source of raw materials and energy producer for China. Chinese cars, smartphones, consumer electronics and other consumer products are flowing into Russia.
China also indirectly supports Russia’s war effort. Chinese auto parts, helmets and electronic components used in the defense industry flow to Russia.
According to US intelligence, China became the most important exporter of computer parts and technology to Russia last year.
– Beijing has assured in several statements that China has clear boundaries with the sale of technologies and weapons. Chinese banks and companies make sure that their cooperation with Russia does not exceed the sanctions imposed on the Kremlin.
Western countries have on many occasions hoped that China would use its influence to bring peace to Ukraine.
Also in China’s interests is to calm down the war and at least get a ceasefire. Turkey reminds us how China’s anger towards Russia ended Putin’s nuclear threats like a wall.
Last year, China issued a 12-point position to resolve the Ukraine crisis. Russia has said that China’s position is reasonable. China also participated in Switzerland’s initiative for peace talks.
Putin and Xi share the same worldview
On a geopolitical level, China and Russia support each other’s interests. China criticizes the dominance of the West and tries to keep the countries of the Global South out of the West’s sphere of influence. The interests of both countries are the weakening of the West, which can be seen at the level of political rhetoric.
At the meeting of foreign ministers, statements will be heard about friendship and possibly military exercises organized within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. According to Turkey, they have been seen before.
Deeper than the surface, things are not like this. China is a strong actor in its own right, and Russia is weak. China is not going to give up its winning role, Turkey says.
#Russias #emergency #cry #expert #Sergei #Lavrovs #visit #China #sign #happening #Kremlin
