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Commanded unproductivity: Russia appears to be repeating its massive mistakes – with increased stakes. Military blogger criticizes Putin as a coward.
Moscow – “I won’t mention them by name because there are too many,” writes “Thirteenth,” like them Kyiv Post reported. Behind the pseudonym is a pro-Kremlin military blogger who is now his warlord Wladimir Putin takes aim: The army is running out of ammunition, writes the soldier of Russia on his social media channel Telescope. Accordingly, the tables would have turned, like that Post reports: Russian troops are now publicly complaining about a lack of grenades.
The reason lies in Ukraine’s repeated attacks on Russian ammunition depots. According to Yegor Gutsenko, as the blogger’s real name is, the phenomenon of missing artillery shells is the result of Ukrainian drone attacks in Toropets in the Tver region and Tikhoretsk in the Krasnodar region in mid-September. The attacks continue, he claims. This would mean that artillery ammunition would be rationed – also to the detriment of the troops who were on the front line.
Losses in supplies: Ukraine has destroyed several ammunition depots
Die Ukraine According to their own statements, they destroyed two ammunition depots in the south and west of Russia. The destroyed depot near the city of Tikhoretsk is one of the “three largest ammunition depots” Moscowthe Ukrainian army said. The fire caused by falling debris ignited explosives and then spread to surrounding settlements, which is why more than 1,000 residents had to be evacuated, the governor of the Russian Krasnodar region, Venjamin Kondratiev, told the news agency Reuters explained. Another ammunition depot was hit in the village of Oktyabrsky in the western Tver region, the Ukrainian army said. A fire broke out there too.
“Russian strategists will double down on core competencies such as command-driven mass production, with corresponding losses in efficiency and innovation.”
However, Gutsenko complains not only about the lack of projectiles, but also about the unchanged order situation to continue to attack – and if necessary without artillery support. The blogger also speaks of his suspicion that there is a flaw in Putin’s system, like that Kyiv Post quoted: “But even if that happened, if some of the warehouses were destroyed, that doesn’t mean that our factories suddenly shut down. The factories work every day – day and night. This ammunition is going somewhere.” The military blogger also asks: “Where is this ammunition going? Why is there so little of it for the troops?”
In addition to the seemingly inexhaustible resources, centralized administration and the prioritization of armaments determine the other economic sectors. “Russia is producing artillery shells about three times faster than Ukraine’s Western allies and at about a quarter the cost,” the British broadcaster has Sky News claimed in May, citing figures from Boston-based management consultancy Bain & Company. In this respect, Russia should not feel any shortage.
Until the last shot: Russia’s low reserves of ammunition now seem to be causing dissatisfaction among the soldiers. Analysts observe that Putin’s artillery simply fires furiously into the area without gaining any effectiveness. © IMAGO/Alexei Konovalov/TASS
Non-stop offensive: Russia produces around three million artillery shells per year
The US broadcaster CNN reported in March that Russia could produce about three million artillery shells per year, or about 250,000 per month. These figures come from estimates by NATO intelligence services. Like Renaud Foucart in the magazine Conversation published, Russia’s public spending has reached a record level, but the war is consuming around 40 percent of the state budget. Last year, total military spending accounted for ten percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
“Soldier pay, ammunition, tanks, aircraft and compensation for fallen and wounded soldiers all contribute to GDP. “To put it simply, the war against Ukraine is now the main engine of Russian economic growth,” writes Foucart. Yegor Gutsenko sees it in a more nuanced way. According to him, Putin should have started the war in 2014 in order to have ended it long ago. Gutsenko considers his president to be a coward and many in the Kremlin to be traitors – because the war should have been fought more consistently, as Gutsenko writes.
Putin’s challenge: Mass production is more valuable than precision
Paul Schwennesen also believes that the production of projectiles is more than sufficient against Ukraine. If this ammunition were used efficiently – the military historian at the Liechtenstein-based think tank Geopolitical Intelligence Services AG (GIS) reminds us that the Russian military leadership is still indoctrinated by the Soviets – as he claims to have learned from a Ukrainian front-line fighter.
Accordingly, the guns currently in use are relics from the 1960s and 70s – such as the 152 mm 2A36 Giazint-B self-propelled howitzer, the 122 mm 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer, the 152.4 mm Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer or the 2S7 Pion self-propelled howitzer. In development and production, emphasis was placed on durability and costs, says Ilya Varzhanskyi; According to him, the possibility of mass production was considered to be of higher value in contrast to high precision of artillery fire.
Criticism is appropriate: Russia’s production hardly leads to an increase in frontline capacity
“It was only in the 1980s that analysts at the General Staff of the Soviet Armed Forces calculated that a high-precision artillery system could replace dozens of traditional systems, giving Western technology a significantly greater advantage for most modern conflicts,” explains the GIS analyst source. However, firepower comparisons should be treated with all due caution. Ukraine’s Western shells may fire more accurately – for example, the Excalibur projectiles from the Swedish Archer howitzer.
However, the Russians appear to have largely succeeded in disrupting their missile navigation with their electronic warfare, which is destroying their precision. And the sheer mass of Russian production does not seem to be an indication of an effective advantage to analyst Schwennesen: “It is unlikely that Russian firepower will actually be doubled or tripled. While the Russian emphasis on increased mass production of artillery is likely to significantly hamper Ukrainian defensive and offensive operations, it does not immediately result in a commensurate increase in frontline capacity.”
Ukraine war with blind fire – to wipe empty villages off the map
Schwennesen suspects that Russia actually can forced to triple its production to maintain its advantage against a comparatively more determined and disciplined opponent. This would mean that both opponents were equally effective, but their artillery command was opposite. Schwennesen again uses his source from the Ukrainian army – according to Varzhanskyi, the Russian army even lacks the incentive to fire precisely at distances between ten and 30 kilometers.
As a result, Russian artillerymen would fire on specific sectors on orders, without targeting specific targets or carrying out specific orders. “Sometimes the fire is used preventively, sometimes as a punitive measure, as in the case of the border villages in northern Ukraine. Sometimes it happens completely pointlessly, for example when they wipe completely empty villages off the map,” says Varzhanskyi. The soldier suggests that the artillery simply fires randomly in order to be able to report activity to command staff; which in turn leads to false or embellished situation reports.
Opportunity for Zelensky: Russia’s command-controlled mass production prevents innovation
Schwennesen assumes that the increased consumption of ammunition is based on questionable military incentive structures and therefore a disproportion between salvos fired and targets attacked. In his opinion, heavy shelling should be viewed in a differentiated manner. Loud CNN NATO assumes that the Russian war machine is insurmountably ahead of NATO.
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According to a senior NATO source, Russia operates its artillery factories “around the clock” in alternating 12-hour shifts CNN writes. An estimated 3.5 million Russians are currently working in the armaments sector; before the war that was said to have been at least a million fewer. As independent media reported a year ago, the increase in personnel in the military and arms production is also due to forced labor of convicts.
Military historian Schwennesen believes that clinging to outdated doctrines is both Russia’s cardinal mistake and the President’s opportunity for the people Wolodymyr Selenskyj: “Russian strategists will double down on core competencies such as command-driven mass production, with corresponding losses in efficiency and innovation.”
