Russia’s announcement of nuclear weapons deployment in Belarus is a direct insult to China, says foreign policy specialist.

On March 25, Russian leader Putin announced that his country planned to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of its neighbor and ally, Belarus. This is a significant step, because so far Russia’s nuclear weapons have not been deployed outside its territory. In addition, the owner of the Kremlin hastened to emphasize that the control of nuclear weapons will not be transferred to the Belarusian side, which would be a clear violation of the nuclear non-proliferation agreement.

On March 28, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus issued an official statement regarding Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons. It said the move was in response to unprecedented pressure exerted on Belarus by the United States and its allies in recent years.

Tactical nuclear weapons designed for use on the battlefield are relatively low-yield. Until now, their production and deployment have not been controlled within the framework of international agreements, so it is not known for sure how many and what kind of weapons Russia has and where they are deployed.

Many Russian weapon systems can be used with both conventional and nuclear munitions. Among other things, Russian tactical nuclear weapons could be located in the Kaliningrad region, which was already suspected by Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvīds Anašauskis in February of last year.

Accordingly, the deployment of such weapons in Belarus would do little to change the overall military-strategic situation in the region. The reaction of the United States to Putin’s statement has been quite moderate, declaring that there are currently no signs that Russia is going to use nuclear weapons.

Latishenko also emphasized that the announcement about the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus should most likely be seen as a symbolic gesture, one of the reasons of which could be the planned NATO summit in Vilnius this summer.

“To deploy nuclear weapons right next to Lithuania is like waving a weapon in our face. It is actually no longer against Ukraine, but against us, against NATO,” he admitted.

At the same time, the expert assessed that the real reasons for this action lie directly as a result of the negotiations between Russia and China.

“Among political scientists, there are currently two such opinions. One is that these were unsuccessful negotiations, as a result of which Putin had to return to this nuclear rhetoric, which we have not heard for several months. I agree with this version more, because it is easier and more logically explains his mode of operation [darbības metodes]. And the second is that this act is somehow coordinated with China, but in my opinion, this version does not work, it is too complicated,” Latishenko explained.

He emphasized that China has positioned itself as a mediator and a great conciliator, and has always expressed a clear position against nuclear weapons and nuclear threats.

“China’s so-called peace plan, which is essentially China’s position paper, has an eighth point that clearly says no to nuclear proliferation, no to nuclear war, no to nuclear threats.

In fact, Putin with this act, and we can still mention also [Dmitriju] Medvedev, who said that after talks with China, the possibility of a nuclear war has increased, this whole action is a slap in the face of the Chinese.

This is my vision. This shows that these negotiations did not succeed and Russia did not get what it wanted, even though we do not know the content of most of the negotiations,” said the foreign policy expert.

Evaluating possible threats to Latvia, Latishenko reminded that nuclear weapons can also be launched from the territory of Russia, and this statement does not fundamentally change anything regarding this threat.

“This is simply a provocation against NATO. Putin may have had some kind of exit option in talks with China, which the Kremlin was hoping for, but apparently that door, China’s door, has closed or is closing, and Putin again feels that he is being backed into a corner. His exit corridor narrows, as a result of which he pulls out this weapon again and starts brandishing it,” Latishenko assessed.

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