Due to the fall of the ruble and fears of a second wave of coronavirus, those wishing to update the car decided to hurry up with the purchase. However, the choice of cars from dealers is still quite limited, and prices have already started to rise gradually.
Market turbulence
Photo: Egor Aleev / TASS
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If you look at the dynamics of the Russian car market in recent months, you can see how the sales curve goes either into the red or into the green zone. So, after three months of falling sales of new cars due to restrictive measures in force in the country, a positive result was recorded in July – 6.8% with a “plus” sign.
However, the increased demand against the background of stoppages of car factories for the summer holidays, we recall, led to a shortage of cars at dealers, as a result of which the Russian car market “sank” by a symbolic 0.5% in August. And in the past month, he rushed up again.
According to the Association of European Businesses, 154.4 thousand new cars were sold in our country in the first month of autumn, which is 3.4% more than a year earlier. However, the September growth did little to compensate for the drop in sales in April-June, so the result for nine months of 2020 remains worse than last year – by 13.9% to 1.1 million vehicles.
“I would not attach strong importance to the ‘slight growth’ in September – customer activity was at the level of August, and the sales volume rested on the availability of cars. In general, warehouses for Avtomir brands remained almost at the level of the end of August, but the situation for brands is not uniform – there are brands for which there were no cars left at all by the end of September, but there are brands for which deliveries still went. The continuing depreciation of the ruble, of course, supports the increased demand for cars – people are trying to buy cars at old prices, realizing that they will certainly grow, “says Artem Zyabin, head of the expert and analytical department of the Avtomir Group.
The instability of the ruble exchange rate is one of the key factors that stimulate demand in the automotive market today, agrees Vladimir Miroshnikov, development director of the Rolf company. According to him, buyers expect a quick rise in prices, so those who were going to buy a car in the near future are in a hurry to do so before the likely rise in price. At the same time, the problem of the deficit in the automotive market is still quite acute.
Access limited
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Photo: iStock
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Indeed, the stock status of various automakers still largely determines their sales results. For example, AvtoVAZ and Renault, which had a drop in sales a month earlier, managed to gain a plus in September. At the same time, their sales growth exceeds the average market value, as well as such market leaders as Kia, Hyundai, Volkswagen and Skoda.
Manufacturers from the Middle Kingdom retain the best positive dynamics in the Russian car market, and in September Chery brand became the leader in this segment, overtaking Haval. But among the “outsiders” were the majority of Japanese brands – Toyota, Nissan, Mitsubishi and Mazda, which, against the background of the general increase in demand, show a double-digit drop in sales, although the main cash register, as you know, is made by locally made cars.
“Japanese brands are notable for conservative planning and do not have large warehouses in a shrinking market. In addition, the availability of cars was also a constraining factor for these brands in September. At the same time, some brands, such as Skoda, Kia, Hyundai, started working in August. car factories and dealers began to receive cars from new deliveries.Accordingly, in September, the previously contracted cars were issued, which, among other things, had a positive impact on the sales dynamics.With regard to the growth of sales of Chinese brands, the ratio of affordable prices, manufacturability and quality of these cars led to the fact that that more and more car enthusiasts are considering them as a purchase, “- comments Denis Petrunin, General Director of the AutoSpecCentre Group.
In turn, Vladimir Miroshnikov notes that now brands that can ensure the availability of their models gain a noticeable advantage. If a brand has few vehicles in stock at its dealerships, it could lose market share even if the demand for its vehicles is high.
The bullish game
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Photo: iStock
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Meanwhile, following the results of car sales in September, the AEB slightly improved its forecast for 2020. The association hopes for a relatively stable situation in the fourth quarter and the absence of serious restrictions on business activity, despite the worsening epidemiological situation. According to the new forecast, this year the Russian car market will decrease by 13.5% and amount to 1 million 552 thousand cars.
At the same time, despite the fact that the situation with the supply of new cars has generally returned to normal, there is still a shortage for many brands. This is also facilitated by the influx of buyers against the background of the weakening ruble, which, in turn, makes automakers once again rewrite price lists. According to Fresh Auto estimates, due to the collapse of the ruble, the cost of new cars has increased by 3-10%, depending on the segment, and due to the lack of strengthening of the Russian currency by winter, one should expect another increase in prices by another 5-10%.
“We expect that the market as a whole in October-November will remain the same level of demand, and in December it will start to gradually decline. It is still difficult to give forecasts in the longer term, as there is still a shortage of cars for some brands, and this factor will continue to affect the market in the near future. At present, it is the shortage, as well as the fluctuations in the exchange rate, that significantly fuel consumer interest in the industry “, says Andrey Pavlovich, Chairman of the Board of Avilon AG.
According to Artem Zyabin, the significant deficit for most brands will remain until the end of December. And if the situation with the second wave of coronavirus worsens and local lockdowns are introduced, as has already happened at some auto factories in Southeast Asia, then problems with car supplies may persist in the first quarter of next year.
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