Biden is about to enter the White House, but Sino-US relations have deteriorated abruptly during Trump’s tenure, and few people feel that they can go back to the past. Russian think tanks believe that China has understood that the United States will launch an offensive seriously for a long time. Although the United States has the ability to slow down China’s progress, it will also face the strategic risk of losing the influence of American globalization.
The New Year’s article of the Russian Council for International Affairs stated that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has played a mitigating role in resolving political conflicts, and it has basically failed. The main trends in the international security field have not undergone fundamental changes due to the epidemic. Increasing competition between China and the United States is the trend. 1. The relationship between Beijing and Washington has deteriorated like an avalanche in 2020. The United States has launched an active offensive against China. The objectives that have been matured in the past few years have been implemented.
The article stated that the new crown epidemic has intensified the US government’s offensive against China, and the policy to contain China was formed before Trump entered the White House. The factors that stimulated the US to contain China include fear of China’s growth and dissatisfaction with Beijing’s foreign policy. Therefore, Trump’s stepping down of the United States may not necessarily change the basic policy.
Biden’s policy may be more restrained in words and more cautious about showing strength, but he will actively use strength when necessary, and his diplomatic steps against Beijing will be more coherent and more concerned about the interests of American companies. Because for American companies, a sharp decoupling from China is bound to suffer huge losses.
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The article pointed out that China has clearly realized that the U.S. offensive is serious and long-lasting; China has no ideas of expansion and revisionism, which are the labels that the United States has put on it; China has not promoted communism overseas, “One Belt One Road” “This type of economic project first pursues commercial goals; China feels comfortable in the free world order and the process of globalization, which has allowed China to develop successfully.
In Washington’s eyes, this situation is unacceptable. The United States believes that if China is to shift to the track of Western democracy and the market, and to curb its ambitions in foreign policy, it will not be able to enjoy the benefits of a liberal order.
But the problem is that the player in China is too big. Squeezing and isolating them will only allow them to form their own spheres of influence, alliances, and alternative views of the global or at least regional order. Strategically speaking, the United States can force China to run slower. However, strategically, the United States may face the risk of losing its ability to influence China through an American globalization model and gaining a powerful enemy and competitor. If this was only a possibility before, it is now becoming a general trend.
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The article continued that the biggest problem is how to form a Sino-US competitive alliance, because not many people are willing to choose sides to participate in the war.
In Europe, the European Union is cautious about cooperating with the United States. In the Sino-US-European triangle relationship, the EU has a closer relationship with the US, but it may suffer various losses as a result. How the Euro-Atlantic Security Community has transformed on the basis of anti-China is worth observing.
America’s Asian allies worry about being caught in a vortex of conflict, but they also worry about China’s growth. Because of the geographical location and more flexible bilateral agreements, it will be easier for the United States to establish an alliance here. The economic and trade relations between the US Asian allies and China have hindered the escalation of contradictions, but there are no shortage of examples in history where security issues have caused the economy to take the second place.
On the Indian side, there is no sign that the conflict between China and India will decrease, but the chances of New Delhi and Washington forming an alliance against China are not high.
As for Russia, the political relationship between China and Russia is unprecedentedly close. Whether it will transform into a true alliance depends on the degree of pressure the United States exerts on Russia and China. The United States has targeted Russia no less than it has targeted China.
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Editor in charge: Lian Zhaofeng
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