“At the moment, it is not very predictable how the price of gas will behave in Europe, because we do not yet know what the sanctions against Russia will look like or whether the gas pipelines through Ukraine will be affected during the war. In the worst case, such a situation could cause a jump in the price of gas by up to tens of percent, “said Pavel Hála, an analyst at the Trhy.cz server.
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The price will therefore depend on Russia and its deliveries to Europe.
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“If the physical flow is not stopped, which I assume, prices could rather fall again after this morning’s shock. Any signal of a risk of supply disruption, from either side, will inevitably lead to rapid growth and last year’s records could be broken, “Jiří Gavor, an analyst at ENA and CEO of the Association of Independent Energy Suppliers, told Novinka.
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Liquefied gas terminals are missing
Michal Šnobr, an analyst at energy markets and a minority shareholder of ČEZ, has a similar opinion, according to whom, in addition to Russia’s behavior, the form of sanctions by the European Union and the USA will also play a role.
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“Europe and especially the eastern one, including our region, would not be able to cope with supply constraints in the short term. In this case, it is not even a price, the point is that the supplies cannot be physically replaced, because there are not enough terminals capable of receiving LNG tankers (liquefied solids) in the region and the like, “he told Novinky.
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The price of gas on the European commercial market TTF in the Netherlands climbed to 122 euros (approximately 3,050 CZK) per megawatt-hour on Thursday afternoon. The day before, the price was a third lower. Gas was traded for 89 euros (approximately 2,220 CZK) per MWh.
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This is the first time that the price of gas has exceeded 100 euros per MWh this year. At the same time, on Monday, gas was sold for 72 euros (approximately 1,800 CZK) per MWh. Rising prices are a reaction to the attack of Russian troops on Ukraine.
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The gas reached a record value of over 180 euros (approximately CZK 4,490) per MWh last year before Christmas. According to analysts, it is not possible to estimate whether it will approach this value again, or perhaps even exceed it.
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Russia is generally expected to continue to supply gas to Europe. After all, even during the Crimean crisis in 2014 and 2015, supplies were not interrupted. Nevertheless, if Russia decides to cut Europe off from gas supplies, Europe has an agreement with third countries to replace Russian supplies, according to Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala.
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So even though the EU seems to have a negotiated supply of liquefied gas from other countries, this is not enough, according to Gavor.
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“It is not possible to simply switch and fully replace Russian supplies, such an amount of ready gas is not available on the global market. But energy must be secured, so we may have to forget about CO2 emissions for some time and produce more electricity and heat from the remaining coal sources, “he said.
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According to energy expert ENAS consulting firm Vladimír Štěpán, the situation with gas reserves could be further complicated by bad weather.
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“Most countries with their reservoirs will survive the winter. But if the temperature drops to minus 10 to 20 degrees, it will be bad for several weeks. Heroism and strong words will go away, “he warned News.
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According to Tuesday’s statement by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Czechia, or rather private companies, and not the state, has gas reserves that should last for about 40 days with current consumption.
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