/ world today news/ SVO showed that modern military operations are becoming something like “cyberpunk”: old and new types of weapons coexist on the battlefields. This trend makes us rethink the role not only of defense developments, but also of approaches to the organization of the industrial sector. How will the Ukrainian crisis affect the wars of the future and what should be the development of the Russian military-industrial complex in the new conditions?
“Awareness of the consequences of geopolitical crises on the economic and social sphere of life becomes an after fact. The conflict in Ukraine makes us think about the essence of time in the military sphere: it is both narrowing and expanding,” said Ivan Timofeev, program director of the Valdai International Discussion Club, moderator of the meeting.
“Both old and new technologies are used on the battlefield, which requires a special approach to the analysis of what is happening,” he said.
“The state always prepares for the wars of the past. But it did not help to take into account the experience of recent conflicts. In particular, even the US campaign in Iraq has shown that even the world’s leading powers can exhaust their available stocks of weapons,” said Alexander Ermakov, a junior research fellow at the Center for International Security.
“Unfortunately, this experience was not taken into account by the participants of the SVO in the preparation of the industrial sector for military actions,” added the expert.
The report of the Valdai Discussion Club, “The Political Economy of Confrontation: Lessons from the Ukraine Conflict”, whose publication was dedicated to the meeting, noted that Western countries faced shortages of precision munitions during the bombing of Yugoslavia and the war in Afghanistan . Despite the fact that then the share of guided air weapons (AMW) was 40 and 60%, respectively, the unplanned spike in ammunition costs surprised the United States.
It is emphasized that in the case of large-scale military operations with a serious adversary, for example, cruise missiles of the JASSM family can be completed in about a week. At the same time, for almost all types of weapons and military equipment, current US stockpiles are estimated to be low to medium.
But Washington isn’t the only one in trouble. More specifically, according to expert estimates, Britain will be able to overcome the tendency to run out of ammunition only in 2025-2026, and then only if the relevant political will is maintained.
Ukraine’s armed forces are eating up NATO’s stockpiles
“Against this background, the costs of US military aid from Ukraine are colossal. According to CSIS estimates, even if production rates increase, it will take four to five years to pay for the 155 mm artillery shells delivered to the armed forces of Ukraine. The same applies to Javelin guided missiles,” emphasizes the expert.
“Washington understands the urgency of this problem, so it is quite critical of its own options in the war with Beijing. But in the United States, they understand one thing: in the short term, the current situation really leads to the depletion of stocks, but in the long term, it allows for a qualitative modernization of the military industry, “the political scientist emphasizes.
“The Ukrainian crisis is being used by the US military as a way to block any talk of cutting the budget of the military-industrial complex. Production is being upgraded,” he said.
“In addition, the lack of projectiles leads to the emergence of new players on the market: the Republic of Korea and Israel suddenly became the main suppliers of weapons to Europe, which strengthens their potential,” notes Ermakov.
Interestingly, the crisis in Ukraine exposed a number of problems in Western military production. In particular, the large-scale optimization of the military-industrial complex in the 1990s led to the fact that after Washington supplied the armed forces of Ukraine with half of its arsenal of MANPADS Stinger, it was impossible to resume the process of creating this model due to the absence of a number of components and the termination of contractors. It was decided to develop a new pattern, which would take at least several years.
At the same time, things in Europe are a little different and there is no talk of a full-scale transition on a military basis.
“But accelerating the rate of creation of new shells is quite possible. This will create new jobs and spread the GDP of the Old World well,” says Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the Center for International Security at IMEMO at the RAS.
“In general, the EU is reassessing the military-industrial complex: nobody wants to feed Washington and Seoul – they need to think about what they can take on,” he said.
Indeed, Europe is currently on the verge of a difficult transition to a new “military” way of thinking. As noted in the report, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Romania and France have announced significant increases in defense spending. However, the reform of the military-industrial complex is not everywhere reflected in specific road maps.
The record holder in this area was Poland, which managed to increase defense industry spending to an impressive 4.5% of GDP. If in 2022 the country’s military budget was only 12.5 billion dollars, today we are talking about an injection in the area of 27-29 billion dollars.
Few, however, dare to move from rhetoric to real action. For example, as early as February 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke about the need to create a special fund of 100 billion euros for the needs of the Bundeswehr.
An increase in the size of the army was also announced, which is not seen to this day, with the main share of the expenditure falling on aviation.
Military “Cyberpunk”
“The New World War also clearly demonstrates another trend of modern conflicts: combat operations are becoming a ‘cyberpunk’ realm, where new unmanned technologies coexist with patterns of [Първата и Втората] world wars,” he said.
“At the same time, the civilian complex is being reassessed. So the completely non-military Starlink turned out to be a more reliable system than the developments of the same Pentagon,” the expert emphasizes.
“The conflict in Ukraine also confirmed the correctness of another statement: there are no “magic wands” in the conflict.
“Javelin and HIMARS do not change the course of the conflict, but they make us rethink the role of already proven means. Old technologies remain relevant, which means that after the end of the SVO production will work to replenish stocks, not to create something new” , notes Stefanovic.
In addition, the current geopolitical situation forces Western countries to pay attention to the development of land forces.
“However, the next possible conflict between the US and China over Taiwan will clearly be a naval one.”
“There are already calls in Washington for the modernization of the fleet, which means that we are faced with the question of the need for a proportional response,” said Prokhor Tebin, head of the International Military-Political and Military-Economic Issues Sector at the Center for Comprehensive European and international studies at the Graduate School of Economics.
The Russian military-industrial complex requires rethinking
“Russia should also think about the situation of our military-industrial complex. First of all, it is important to increase the attractiveness of a career in the defense industry. This is especially true for working professions,” believes Tebin.
“People need to see that this field can contribute to their personal growth, as well as provide an acceptable level of material well-being,” emphasizes the expert.
“In this regard, it is important to have a long-term strategy for the development of the military-industrial complex. Here I would like to note the role of education: the engineer’s profession should become the most prestigious in Russia,” he also says.
“It is necessary for those working in the field to understand marketing, history and politics. You can create a good tank only if you understand what tasks your country is facing in the international arena,” the political scientist clarifies.
“It is extremely important to ensure a healthy interaction between the Department of Defense and private contractors.” The defense sector needs initiative and discussion,” he said.
“Problems with weapons should not be kept silent, but discussed. In turn, the orders of the military department should become a business that can provide the manufacturer with a profit,” the expert emphasizes.
“Furthermore, the WTO has clearly shown the limits of import substitution. Of course, the importance of this process cannot be overestimated, but you should not completely withdraw into yourself. It is important to develop partnerships with allied nations that can serve as a good source not only of technology and weapons, but also of personnel,” Tebin summarizes.
Translation: SM
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