According to the researcher, sending conscripts to the front erodes the social contract between Russian families and the country’s government regarding conscript service.
Ukraine has captured more than 240 Russian soldiers in Kursk since the start of its surprise attack. The information is based on analyzes of more than 130 images and videos made by the Washington Post magazine. According to analysts, some of the captured soldiers appear to be conscripts with little combat experience.
Ukraine and Russia have not both expressed an exact figure for the number of Russian prisoners.
The analyzed videos show numerous young Russian soldiers in the wounds of the Ukrainians, who seem to surrender without resistance. At least 247 Russian prisoners can be identified from the certified photo and video material. The information supports Ukraine’s claims that the country managed to capture “hundreds” of Russian prisoners after its counter-offensive began.
Some of the captured soldiers say in the videos that they are conscripts. In Russia, conscripts are not usually expected to go into battle, so the fact that young men serving their service remain prisoners of war is a politically sensitive issue.
– It’s been a long time since I last saw Russian soldiers surrender en masse like that, commented Dara Massicota senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
– My first reaction when I saw the videos was that these soldiers are not combat-experienced troops who have fought within the borders of Ukraine, Massicot continues.
The Ukrainian news website Euromaidan Press has also reported on the matter. According to an update made by a Ukrainian website on the messaging service X, Russia has even used sending to the front as a means of punishment.
The Washington Post did not count soldiers from videos whose veracity could not be ascertained. However, this means that in reality the number of Russian soldiers captured by Ukraine is very likely higher than believed.
In seven videos, the prisoners say they are conscripts. The age range for conscript service in Russia is the same as in Finland, i.e. 18–30 years. Putin has promised that conscripts will not be sent to the front, although according to Russian law it is possible if the soldier has received at least four months of basic training.
According to the researcher, sending conscripts into battle erodes the social consensus regarding conscripts.
– Sending conscripts to fight undermines the social contract between Russian families and the regime, which has remained unchanged throughout Putin’s reign since 1999, Massicot continues.
Destroyed Russian equipment outside the city of Suzha in Kursk. Kirill Chubotin, Zumawire / MV Photos
– I didn’t expect so many easy surrenders, commented for his part Mathieu Bouleguesenior researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
– But this also shows how vulnerable the war narrative is in Russia, and also how desperate these soldiers are, who would rather be with Ukraine in Ukrainian prisons than fighting for Russia, the researcher continues.
According to Massicot, the Russian forces at Kursk were probably taken by surprise, and the forces were probably under different ministries or organizations that did not communicate very effectively with each other. In addition, the troops were inexperienced in combat, which also contributed to Ukraine’s success.
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