Russian Presidential Election 2024: How Long Can Putin Stay in Power?

The Russian presidential election is scheduled to take place in March next year, and it is expected that the first round of elections will take place on 17 March.

Vladimir Putin will stand as a presidential candidate, and may initially hold on to power until 2030, writes the Reuters news agency. They cite several Russian sources who have information that he will remain in office as president.

If his health holds and he uses the laws he has dictated himself, he can be president right up until 2036.

Bigger than Lenin and Stalin

Then Yeltsin, Gorbachev, Brezhnev, Lenin and Stalin will be considered lightweights if they have been in power the longest. Putin took power in 1999, after Boris Yeltsin suddenly resigned, pointing to Vladimir Putin as his successor.

Since then he has been president or prime minister, and the question is how long can he stay in power?

– He will remain president until he is overthrown or dies, says Iver B. Naumann, Russia researcher and director of the research institute Fridtjof Nansen’s Institute (FNI).

RUSSIA EXPERT: Iver B. Neumann. Photo: NTB. view more

None of the Russia experts Dagbladet has spoken to would characterize the country as a democracy, but describe it as a dictatorship or a mafia state.

Putin changed the constitution

The presidential election will be the first in Russia since constitutional amendments in 2020 allow Putin to seek re-election, despite having been president for 20 years. He can therefore remain in office until 2036 if he is elected for two more presidential terms.

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Vladimir Putin has been in power in Russia since 1999. He has served continuously as president with the exception of 2008 to 2012 when Dmitry Medvedev, who is described as a tragic puppet and Putin’s lackey, was president.

In March 2012, Putin was re-elected as president. As the constitution was amended in 2011, the presidential term was extended by two years. The election was criticized by international election observers for irregularities, for great state favoring of Putin’s candidacy and for having no real counter-candidates

Pressed the “atomic button” on stage

In 2020, Putin signed a new constitutional amendment that allows him to potentially rule until 2036. Although Putin is no older than 71 right now, the picture will be completely different after two presidential terms totaling twelve years.

Putin and Erna Solberg

– When you have been in power for a while, the thought of your own excellence becomes absolutely incredible. You can also see it in democratic parties in small Norway, here I think you can draw a direct parallel with Erna Solberg and the party Høyre. When you have been party leader for 20 years, you realize that you are indispensable to your party, even if in reality you are an extreme burden, says Neumann.

– Isn’t it a bit awkward to draw the comparison between Erna Solberg and Vladimir Putin?

– Of course it’s a bit rough, but even in democratic parties where there are calculated democratic takeovers, you can see the phenomenon. That applies to Angela Merkel in Germany, and it applies to Erna Solberg in Norway, says Neumann.

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He is in no way surprised that Vladimir Putin clings to power and continues as president of Russia.

– It is a common dictator trap. Once he has sat a few years at the top of the throne, he cannot imagine that it is possible for the country to manage without him. It is standard thinking, of which Robert Mugabe is a prime example. He was carried out of the stools when he was 92-93 years old, says Neumann.

Everyone has to give up

It is not harmless to sit at the top of the throne in today’s Russia, or historically to be the leader of Russia. History shows that even the most powerful leaders have had to give up in the end.

– When you have been in power for as long as Putin, you have a feeling of being indispensable to a country, and then it is far too dangerous to give up power voluntarily. Both because it is unnatural, and because you run the risk that those who come after may go after him, as we saw, for example, in Kazakhstan, says Neumann.

If Putin manages to cling to power for more than four years, he will make history in the country. Even the infamous Josep Stalin, who is the longest-serving president of the Soviet Union, will have to give way to Putin if he remains in power until 2031.

THE TAKEOVER OF POWER: President Boris Yeltsin handed over power to Vladimir Putin on Friday 31 December 1999. In the photo, Yeltsin leaves the Kremlin for the last time. Photo: AP Photo/ITAR-TASS/NTB. view more

– He will probably think it is a funny comparison, but deep down he will probably compare himself to the tsars, says Neumann.

In Ukraine, the election has been postponed indefinitely due to the war. Russia, on the other hand, is sticking to its schedule of holding presidential elections in March 2024, despite having attacked Ukraine. According to Putin, the country is not at war, but is conducting the “special operation” in Ukraine.

Promises “fair” elections

President Vladimir Putin has stated that a “fair” presidential election will be held in Russia in 2024. It is the first election since the constitutional reform in 2020.

– The presidential election in 2024 will be held in strict accordance with the law and in accordance with all democratic constitutional procedures, Putin told elected officials in Moscow on Tuesday.

Setting the rumors on fire

The former KGB agent has dominated Russia for 24 years, either as president or prime minister. Since Putin came to power, he has changed most laws, especially those related to freedom of expression and democracy.

Those who have challenged Putin or criticized his actions have had to face the consequences of their statements. They have either been struck by sudden failing health, fallen out of a window or been poisoned by bad tea served by FSB officers. What they all have in common is that they had a shorter life span after they criticized Vladimir Putin.

– There has been a systematic narrowing of the right to be politically reflected in different parties, while at the same time there has been a brutal narrowing of freedom of expression and the opportunity to organize political opposition, says Morten Strand, who is a former foreign journalist and now a commentator in Dagbladet.

With the exception of the 2020 election, where Russia was closed due to corona, he has reported on all Russian presidential elections since Vladimir Putin came to power in 1999.

– Ever since he arrested Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who challenged Putin politically, it has been clear to everyone that opposition has consequences. He himself has appointed the political opposition parties that have been allowed to stand in elections and he raised the barring limit, so that small liberal parties did not reach. He also made it clear that other parties were not allowed to be critical of the regime, says Strand.

Protesters are arrested

Putin has tightened freedom of expression and all forms of criticism directed at himself. There are some demonstrations, but you risk very strong reactions.

Dagbladet’s commentator Morten Strand in the DBTV studio. Photo: Lars Eivind Bones/Dagbladet. view more

– Now it is almost impossible to demonstrate and express opposition to the regime. If you stand on the street with a blank sheet of paper, even then you will be arrested, says Strand.

Early in Putin’s time as president, people could protest and express their opinions. But that has changed radically.

– Right up until 2012 it was fine, but after that it started to be associated with risk to be an activist. Previously, a student who demonstrated risked being thrown out of the university, but now they risk long rigorous prison sentences of up to 10 – 12 years, he says.

The drones choose who will die

Putin has slowly but surely taken control of all aspects of Russian society. All national television channels have come under state control, or have owners loyal to the Kremlin, often via forced acquisitions.

Putin and his regime have shut down the renowned newspaper Novaya Gazeta, whose editor Dmitry Muratov received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2021.

– Novaya Gazeta is managed from abroad after considerable pressure from the Russian authorities. A few newspapers can do some actual journalism, as long as they are not too critical of power. But it has been a long time since Russian newspapers were able to expose public corruption. It has become too dangerous, says Morten Strand.

No opposition

The Russian regime has also opposed and now banned the human rights organization Memorial, which won the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize.

– There are no opposition politicians in Russia. Those who do exist, such as Alexei Navalny, have been tried to be poisoned or are serving long prison terms in Siberia, where they have difficult access to lawyers or family who can visit them, says Morten Strand.

Opinion polls in Russia show that around 70 percent of the population, who depend on state media for news, support the Russian military in Ukraine.

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Support in Russia says Putin is big, but only via state-controlled media, so it’s hard to say anything for sure about the numbers. Although he has silenced his political opponents, he is challenged by a dissenting voice.

– There are no real opponents apart from the bloggers, the extreme nationalists on the right. It is not good, this is going in a fascist direction, says Iver B. Neumann.

– What is the tension in the election?

– There is no tension in who wins the election or how he wins. It is in the form of propaganda and vilification of those Russians who look towards the West. The tension lies in how they will get Putin’s numbers up and how many percentages they will cheat their way to, says Neumann.

2023-11-13 04:57:59
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