Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.ⓒ News1 DB
As Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to North Korea becomes virtually official, attention is focused on China’s choice to show off its ‘influence’ over North Korea. In response to deepening North Korea-Russia military cooperation and strengthening North Korea-China-Russia solidarity, voices are being raised that South Korea should also engage in full-scale ‘management diplomacy’.
On the 21st, North Korea introduced the results of Foreign Minister Choe Son-hee’s visit to Russia through the ‘Foreign Minister’s Assistant’s Office’ and expressed its position by saying, “We warmly welcome President Putin’s visit to North Korea” and “We are ready to welcome him with all our hearts.” North Korea’s confident tone of announcement is interpreted as an indication that Putin’s visit to North Korea has become official.
The Kremlin showed a relatively cautious attitude regarding President Putin’s visit to North Korea on the 19th (local time), saying, “Coordination through diplomatic channels is still in progress,” but North Korea appears to be pushing for Putin’s visit to North Korea more actively.
It’s just a matter of timing, but North Korea and Russia, which have expanded military cooperation through arms deals since the outbreak of the Ukraine War, celebrated the 75th anniversary of the signing of the ‘North Korea-Russia Agreement on Economic and Cultural Cooperation’ on a large scale this year, and in September of last year, North Korean Workers’ Party General Secretary Kim Jong-un It appears that the ‘task’ of returning to Russia’s visit will be fulfilled.
The timing of the visit to North Korea is likely to be after the Russian presidential election on March 15-17. Some predict that it will occur around the Day of the Sun (President Kim Il-sung’s birthday) in April, one of North Korea’s biggest holidays. When President Putin visits North Korea this year, it will be 24 years since July 2000.
In addition to these large-scale moves by North Korea and Russia, this year also marks the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between North Korea and China.
China has also recently been actively pursuing diplomacy toward North Korea. At the start of the new year, Chinese President Xi Jinping exchanged congratulatory messages with General Secretary Kim and declared this year as the ‘Year of North Korea-China Friendship.’ Liu Jianchao, head of the external liaison department of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, who is considered China’s next foreign minister, met with North Korean Ambassador to China Ri Ryong-nam on the 19th of this month.
However, the prevailing view is that the level of China’s diplomacy toward North Korea has a ‘temperature difference’ from North Korea-Russia relations. Moreover, some predict that China, which has been using the fact that it has greater influence than Russia on the North Korean issue as ‘leverage’ in the international community, will have different feelings about President Putin’s visit to North Korea.
In particular, the timing of the summit meeting between General Secretary Kim Jong-un and President Xi Jinping is also of interest. As this year was declared the ‘Year of North Korea-China Friendship’ and the atmosphere was livened up from the first day of the new year, the meeting between the leaders of North Korea and China appears to be an expected procedure.
However, there is speculation that China will want to avoid the appearance of the leaders of North Korea and China meeting after the North Korea-Russia summit. This is because it may be seen as a ‘second priority’ in the triangular relationship between North Korea, China, and Russia. Therefore, there are predictions that it will be difficult for President Xi to visit North Korea this year.
Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha Womans University, said, “China engages in so-called ‘big country diplomacy,’ and in some issues, they must take priority. But will China really make it look like President Xi visits North Korea after President Putin? “It is questionable,” he pointed out.
In this context, it is predicted that if President Xi holds a summit meeting with Secretary General Kim, it will be a scenario in which Secretary General Kim visits China.
China has maintained a certain distance from the move to strengthen the ‘North Korea-China-Russia trilateral cooperation’ promoted by North Korea and China last year. Russia even raised the issue of trilateral joint exercises between North Korea, China and Russia, but China did not show a clear position. At the same time, he is clearly putting effort into bilateral relations between North Korea, China, and Russia, including actively promoting economic support for North Korea and meeting with President Putin.
At the US-China summit held in San Francisco in November last year, China agreed to ‘manage US-China relations rather than deepening confrontation and conflict.’ This was interpreted as an intention to avoid expending more force than necessary on external issues due to the need to solve China’s internal problems (economy).
Meanwhile, the reality is that actively seeking ‘contacts’ with North Korea and Russia, which are continuing illegal arms trade in violation of UN Security Council resolutions on sanctions against North Korea, is not a burden for China. It appears to be a calculation to maintain bilateral relations but avoid the structure of close ties between North Korea, China, and Russia as a response to Korea, the United States, and Japan.
At the same time, there is an analysis that this is providing an appropriate space for managing public diplomacy, which Korea has been longing for. This is naturally linked to the need for ‘crisis management’ in Korea-Russia relations.
Professor Park Won-gon said, “China is also very uncomfortable with the exchanges between North Korea and Russia targeting Ukraine,” and added, “It will be difficult to get an immediate positive response to South Korea’s request, but given the basic perceptions and interests, there is an area of diplomatic intersection between Korea and China.” There may be. “Korea needs to target that area,” he said.
(Seoul = News 1)
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2024-01-22 02:27:00
