Russian President Vladimir Putin to Make First Foreign Trip Amid ICC Arrest Warrant for Alleged War Crimes

Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly planning his first foreign trip since the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for alleged war crimes. According to a Bloomberg report, Putin will be visiting China in October to attend the Belt and Road Forum.

The ICC issued the arrest warrant in March, accusing Putin of involvement in abducting and illegally deporting children from Ukraine. This has caused panic within the Kremlin, raising concerns about the stability of Putin’s rule and whether the warrant is a call for regime change.

In recent months, Putin has kept a low profile to avoid traveling to countries that could enforce the arrest warrant. He did not attend the BRICS summit in South Africa last week, opting for Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to represent Russia instead. This decision was seen as an attempt to avoid international scandal over the arrest warrant.

Furthermore, Putin has been avoiding other international travel as well. He recently informed India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, that he will not be attending the G20 summit in India next month, citing a busy schedule.

China has been walking a delicate line since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine last year. While China and Russia have a “no-limits partnership,” Chinese President Xi Jinping was reportedly caught off guard by the invasion. Despite this, China has refused to condemn Russia’s actions and has continued to spread pro-Russia disinformation about the war in Ukraine.

The upcoming visit to China comes after President Xi visited Russia in March, where he praised Putin’s “strong leadership.” During the visit, China presented itself as a constructive partner and shared details about a proposed peace plan for Ukraine, leaning towards a pro-Russia stance. Xi signaled that China and Russia’s partnership would continue with the aim of countering U.S. influence on the world stage.

Since Xi’s visit, both Russia and China have experienced internal turmoil. Putin faced a staged revolt from Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the boss of the Wagner group, which was seen as a significant challenge to Putin’s hold on power. Prigozhin has since died in a mysterious plane crash, leading some to speculate that it was an assassination orchestrated by Putin.

In China, senior officials have also faced upheaval. Foreign Minister Qin Gang went missing and was later ousted, while the head of China’s rocket force unit, General Li Yuchao, and his deputy were replaced. These changes suggest that Xi may be feeling uneasy about his control over the regime.

The meeting between Putin and Xi in China is significant as Russia prepares to take chairmanship of the BRICS group in January. The group, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is considering adding new members to increase their collective political and economic influence. For Russia, changing the group’s membership could help alleviate its isolation in the international arena while it continues its involvement in Ukraine.

For China, the meeting with Putin could be an opportunity to show unity and support for Beijing after its “no-limits partnership” with Moscow has alienated some allies. The New York Times reported that China’s association with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused concerns among its allies.

Putin’s visit to China in October will be closely watched as it marks his first foreign trip since the ICC issued the arrest warrant. It will also provide insights into the evolving dynamics between Russia and China and their efforts to counter U.S. influence on the world stage.

What are the potential implications of the ICC arrest warrant on the prospects for a joint economic project between Russia and China in the Arctic

Otential joint economic project with Russia in the Arctic.

The Belt and Road Forum in October is expected to attract leaders from more than 100 countries, as China seeks to promote its international trade and infrastructure initiative. The fact that Putin is willing to attend despite the ICC arrest warrant shows his determination to maintain his leadership and strengthen ties with China.

However, the arrest warrant from the ICC raises questions about Putin’s international standing and the potential consequences if he were to be arrested. It also highlights the increasing pressure on Russia, both domestically and internationally, over the conflict in Ukraine.

The Kremlin has dismissed the ICC arrest warrant as politically motivated and has accused Ukraine of fabricating the charges. Russia is not a member of the ICC, so it is unlikely that Putin will face any legal consequences as a result of the warrant.

Nevertheless, the warrant has further isolated Russia on the international stage and has added to its growing list of challenges, including economic sanctions and diplomatic tensions. Putin’s decision to attend the Belt and Road Forum in China indicates that he is actively seeking allies and support to counter these challenges.

China’s response to the arrest warrant has been relatively muted. While the country values its close ties with Russia, it is also cautious about being dragged into Russia’s conflicts and facing international backlash. China has shown a pragmatic approach by neither fully endorsing nor condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

The visit to China will provide an opportunity for Putin to strengthen his relationship with President Xi and to explore avenues for economic cooperation. It will also send a message to the international community that Putin is not willing to back down despite the increasing pressure and challenges he faces.

Overall, Putin’s upcoming visit to China in October highlights his determination to maintain his leadership and strengthen ties with key allies, despite the ICC arrest warrant and growing international pressure. It also underscores the complex dynamics between Russia and China as they navigate their relationship amidst global uncertainties.