The Russian peacekeeping contingent leaves Nagorno-Karabakh. The decision was made by Moscow and Baku. Russia no longer sees the point of having peacekeepers in the region after the exodus of the Armenian population. Yerevan sees the Kremlin’s decision as another reason to resolve the issue of Armenia’s security outside the post-Soviet space.
Russia is withdrawing peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh, despite the fact that they were supposed to remain in the region for at least five years. Reportedly, the decision on the early withdrawal of the contingent was made by the top leadership of Azerbaijan and Russia.
“The top leadership of both countries decided on the early withdrawal from the territory of Azerbaijan of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, which was temporarily stationed here on the basis of a trilateral statement dated November 10, 2020. The process has already begun. The Ministries of Defense of Azerbaijan and Russia are taking appropriate measures to implement this decision.”said the assistant to the President of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hajiyev.
The Russian military contingent, with the consent of Armenia and Azerbaijan, was introduced into the region following the results of the Second Karabakh War in 2020. The main forces were deployed in November of the same year along the former line of contact and along the Lachin corridor, which connected Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. In total, 1,960 military personnel, 90 armored personnel carriers, 380 vehicles and 4 helicopters arrived in Karabakh.
Now the Russian Ministry of Defense publishes personnel withdrawal footage. As follows from the video, the peacekeepers left the location in trucks. Columns of Ural and KAMAZ vehicles, accompanied by special vehicles, delivered the Russian military to the train. The peacekeepers’ equipment has also been withdrawn from the region.
The Kremlin commented briefly on the information. Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov stated: “Yes this is true”.
At the same time, Moscow called the haste of the Russian military’s withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh a logical consequence of the policy of the Armenian authorities led by Nikol Pashinyan. This was stated, in particular, by the head of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Grigory Karasin:
“I think that this is an absolutely logical consequence of the recognition by the leader of Armenia of Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. The fact is that after the resolution of the Karabakh issue through the mouth of Nikol Pashinyan, who said that this is the territory of Azerbaijan, the issue of the presence of our peacekeepers was resolved in direct contact with the leadership of Azerbaijan. And it was decided to gradually withdraw them from there.”
It is noteworthy that back on April 16, the first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs Konstantin Zatulin reported that Azerbaijan is not yet demanding the withdrawal of troops so as not to spoil relations with Russia. However, according to the deputy, the reasons for maintaining the contingent are becoming fewer and fewer every day.
“Today, the presence of peacekeepers in Karabakh is interconnected with relations between Russia and Azerbaijan. In fact, since there is no Armenian population in Karabakh, the question arises: what are our peacekeepers doing there? I think that the leadership of Azerbaijan has not yet raised questions about their withdrawal solely so that this would not be perceived in Russia as a defeat, as a concession, as damage caused by the presence of our military outside the Russian Federation. But in fact, there are fewer reasons for our peacekeepers to be in Karabakh. The exodus of the local population from Karabakh undermined their reason for being there.”
The Armenian authorities have already stated that if the Russian peacekeeping contingent withdraws, it should not be redeployed to Armenia. The position of Yerevan was formulated by the Prime Minister of the Republic Nikol Pashinyan:
“These are peacekeeping troops of the Russian Federation in Nagorno-Karabakh. If they get out, they must return to Russia.”
Moscow accuses Nikol Pashinyan of trying to remove Armenia from Russia’s sphere of influence. Despite the fact that Yerevan remains a member of the Customs Union and the EAEU, and is also developing trade with Russia (in 2023, Armenia’s trade turnover with the Russian Federation increased by 43% – to $7.3 billion, which is more than a third of the total trade turnover), in military terms Armenia is clearly moving away from Moscow.
Armenia’s public position is that Russia can no longer provide security in the region and Yerevan has to look for an alternative. Paris and Washington have already signaled their readiness to help Yerevan diversify its economy, politics and defense.
“Russia accounts for only 10% of the total volume of weapons purchased by Armenia, although previously this figure was more than 50%. Russia has nothing to offer in the matter of security either to Azerbaijan, which captured Karabakh, or to Armenia, which lost Karabakh. As a result of this, Armenia is now looking for security outside the post-Soviet space. And with the outbreak of the war in Georgia, Russia showed that it was ready to reconsider the boundaries of the former Soviet borders. The second stage began with the annexation of Crimea. Russia’s neighbors feel that their territorial integrity is in danger.”says the director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan.
On April 15, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, following negotiations with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, announced his readiness to sign peace with Baku on the principles already agreed upon. He clarified that we are talking about mutual recognition of territorial integrity based on the provisions of the Almaty Declaration of 1991 and the implementation of border delimitation, as well as the unblocking of regional infrastructures based on the principles of respect for the sovereignty and jurisdiction of states, reciprocity and equality.