Russian Opposition in Exile Discusses Democratic Strategy in Brussels Dialogues Forum

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Within the framework of the “Brussels Dialogue” forum – an initiative of the Russian democratic forces and the EU – Russian oppositionists in exile discussed a new democratic strategy in the European Parliament in Brussels. Among the participants were many familiar names – Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Zhana Nemtsova, Dmitry Gudkov, Vladimir Milov, Maxim Kats, Boris Akunin, Galina Timchenko, Yevgeny Kiselev, Ekaterina Shulman, and Garry Kasparov and Dmitry Muratov joined the discussion via video link. However, none of Alexei Navalny’s associates were present at the meeting, and later the organizers specified for DV that his representatives refused to participate.

Many of the speakers at the forum referred to the Berlin Declaration adopted by the Russian opposition on April 30. In it, 68 representatives of the Russian democratic movement defined the war in Ukraine as criminal and called for the abolition of Vladimir Putin’s regime, for reparations for the damage done to Ukraine, for punishing war criminals and releasing political prisoners and prisoners of war.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky emphasized that those present do not represent the entire population of Russia, but only the anti-war and democratic part of Russian society, which he personally hopes will determine the country’s future.

“First – victory of Ukraine, and then – democratization of Russia”

According to Khodorkovsky, to ensure a democratic future for Russia, the opposition must learn to work together. “For us, there is absolutely no question of a medium- or long-term agreement with Putin. This regime must be destroyed. There is simply no other way to a peaceful, normal future – not only for Russia, but also for Europe and the whole world,” he said.

A mandatory condition for any change in Russia is the victory of Ukraine, Garry Kasparov said in turn: “Only the complete defeat of Putin’s army in Ukraine can pave the way for the democratization of Russia.” According to him, there is no guarantee that the country will become democratic, but the chance of the opposition to work together with Europe should be used. “The main thing for us at this meeting is to develop a strategy for joint work and prepare for the moment when Putin’s army will be defeated,” Kasparov said.

Different transition scenarios

The forum discussed various scenarios for Russia’s desired transition from authoritarianism to democracy, for example, in the event of a full or partial defeat in the war with Ukraine and the subsequent fall of the Putin regime. None of the speakers, however, ventured to predict exactly when and how this might happen.

“In order for the West not to fear the chaos that could result from a military defeat of Moscow, it must see the possibilities for the development of democracy in Russia after the war. If he does not see them, he will hesitate whether to provide enough weapons to Ukraine,” said the organizer of the meeting – Lithuanian MEP Andrews Kubilius.

“So the possibility of a transition to democracy in Russia depends on Ukraine’s victory. Ukraine’s victory depends on Western arms supplies, and those supplies depend on the West’s belief that Russia can become a democratic state. Finally, that belief depends on the ability of the Russian opposition to convince the West of its strategy and that it is united,” he stressed. Otherwise, the West may be tempted to accept the option of “rapid peace negotiations and tacit agreement with an authoritarian regime.” warned the MEP from EPP.

Toppling Putin’s regime with guns in hand

Critical voices were also heard. Alexei Baranovsky of the Political Center of the Russian Armed Opposition pointed out that there was a lack of specifics and accused the participants of gathering only for talk. “The real politics today is made by the people with weapons in their hands – in the ‘Russian Volunteer Corps’ and the ‘Freedom of Russia’ legion,” he emphasized. According to him, a territory freed from Putinism is already being created in the Belgorod region, in which it must now to create an interim administration and push through new laws. “That’s what we should be talking about here, not how the opposition will come back and participate in the elections,” Baranovsky said.

The Russian opposition is afraid to talk about armed struggle in the name of democracy in the country, he also believes. When asked who the weapons should be directed against, the representative of the armed opposition answered that primarily against Yevgeny Prigozhin and his formations. “The army will be partially finished by the Ukrainian armed forces in the upcoming counterattack, and when Ukraine also liberates Crimea, there will be system paralysis, and the Russian army and security generals will start pretending that they have not received orders. So the army will be sabotaged – just like when Yanukovych’s regime began to collapse in Ukraine. And Prigozhin will not give up power so easily,” predicted Baranovsky. According to him, the Russian security services and the army will take the side of the winner in this struggle.

Russia has no future if it does not return to international law

However, the forum also took one concrete step: the Brussels Declaration was drafted – as a contribution to the debate on the creation of a tribunal for the top Russian leadership for the crimes committed in Ukraine. “This is a very important discussion, and the voice of Russian society must be heard,” emphasized one of the authors of the declaration, international law specialist Gleb Bogush.

It was also stated that full-fledged peace in Europe is not possible until Russia returns to international law, an integral part of which is the responsibility of the heads of state for the crimes committed. “There can be no peace without justice,” emphasized Bogush.

Author: Ksenia Polska