According to data analyzed by experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russians are preparing for a new offensive, but according to preliminary assessments, they will not be able to achieve operationally significant breakthroughs.
Source: ISW
Details: Russian sources claim that Russian troops are preparing to launch a new offensive in the coming weeks as soon as the ground freezes in eastern and southern Ukraine.
Russian literary critic and alternative history theorist Sergei Pereslegin said that the occupiers would launch a large-scale offensive operation in Ukraine sometime between January 12 and February 2 after the ground freezes and likely after Ukrainian troops are “exhausted” from defending their positions in Avdeevka and on the eastern (left) bank of the Kherson region.
He also expressed concern that Russia does not have enough manpower to carry out the large-scale offensive actions that he predicts.
A Russian military blogger said on January 14 that the number of Russian troops at the front allows the occupiers to conduct local tactical maneuvers, but there are unlikely to be operationally significant “breakthroughs.”
He claimed that the frosty weather was affecting Russian and Ukrainian ground activity, artillery and unmanned systems along the entire front, especially in the Kherson direction.
Another Russian blogger said the cold was preventing Russian troops from conducting ground operations and advancing north from Verbovoye in the western Zaporozhye region.
The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian aircraft could not operate in southern Ukraine due to weather conditions.
Former head of Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin said that the front line in the western Zaporozhye region is “humming like a beehive” due to the large number of Ukrainian drones.
He claimed that Ukrainian forces were dedicating drones to strike every important target in the western Zaporozhye region, and that the heavy use of Ukrainian drones was making it difficult to rotate Russian personnel.
ISW’s preliminary assessment is that sub-zero temperatures in Ukraine will likely hold back operations at the front for now, but the terrain will likely become more conducive to mechanized maneuver warfare as the ground freezes.
However, analysts continue to assess that Russian troops will likely try to maintain or intensify local offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, trying to seize and maintain the initiative, despite winter weather conditions and terrain conditions.
ISW also assesses that Russian forces will not be able to achieve operationally significant breakthroughs.
ISW Key Findings for January 14:
- Russian sources claim that Russian troops are preparing for a new offensive in the coming weeks, as soon as the ground freezes in eastern and southern Ukraine.
- Russian forces will likely continue to experiment and adapt their missile and unmanned strike systems against Ukraine in an attempt to overcome Ukrainian air defenses.
- Representatives of 83 countries met to discuss the implementation of the Ukrainian peace formula on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos (Switzerland) on January 14.
- The Kremlin continues to take measures to undermine the autonomy of the Republic of Tatarstan within the Russian Federation and its cultural heritage, despite the sacrifices the republic is making in the name of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
- The Investigative Committee of Russia will officially open a case into the fire that destroyed a large Wildberries warehouse in St. Petersburg.
- Positional clashes continued on the Kupyansk-Kremennaya line, near Bakhmut and Avdeevka, in the border zone of the Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions, in the west of the Zaporozhye region, as well as on the eastern (left) bank of the Kherson region.
- At the international exhibition and forum “Russia” in Moscow on January 14, an exhibition of the Russian Ministry of Defense “Army of Children” opened, the purpose of which is to “familiarize” children with military affairs and service in the Russian army.
- The Swedish Defense Armaments Administration announced on January 14 that it had signed an agreement with the Nordic Ammunition Company (Nammo) to increase the production and supply of 155mm artillery ammunition to meet the needs of Ukraine.
- The Kremlin funds individual non-profit organizations operating in the occupied territories and disseminating Kremlin social narratives.
2024-01-15 01:20:00
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