Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: ISW Analysts Believe Advances Slowing Near Avdievka and Targeting Chasovoy Yar

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that the Russians have slowed their advance and are preparing reserves to try to push forward from their advance north of Avdievka to Toretsk to supplement Russian offensive operations near Chasovoy Yar.

Source: ISW

Details: On April 30, in the area of ​​Avdeevka, Russian troops did not commit confirmed crimes for the first time in several days, and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian troops carried out more attacks in the direction of Bakhmut-Chasov Yar than near Avdeevka .

The morning and evening reports of the Ukrainian General Staff for April 30 indicate that, in just one day, Ukrainian troops repelled 47 Russian attacks in the direction of Avdiivka and 57 Russian attacks in the direction of Bakhmut, with many more attacks made in the Chasovoy Yar direction.

A single day’s report is not enough to establish a pattern, but it may indicate that Russian forces are somewhat slowing the pace of attacks around Avdievka while resuming offensive activity around Chasovy Yar, as ISW expected.

Since around April 20, Russian forces have focused on building tactical success near Ocheretino (northwest of Avdeevka) and Novokalinovo (north of Avdeevka), but on April 30 the pace of confirmed advances seems to have grown slower.

Russian forces may decide to advance from their thrust north of Avdeevka to Toretsk to complement Russian offensive operations near Chasovoy Yar, which would likely require Russian forces to take a tactical halt to force focus for the offense.

Chasov Yar is an operationally important facility as it will be a launching pad for Russian troops to launch offensive operations on Druzhkovka and Konstantinovka, which will be the strongholds of the four main cities in Donetsk. However, it is likely that Russian forces will have to hold off longer to reinforce existing units and redeploy additional forces to the Ocheretino region if they decide to try to move north into the Toretsk region .

Key ISW results for April 30:

• For the first time in several days, Russian troops made no progress in the Avdeevka region on April 30, and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces carried out more attacks on the Bakhmut-Chasov Yar side than near Avdeevka.
• Russian forces may decide to advance from their positions north of Avdeevka to Toretsk to complement Russian offensive operations in the Chasov Yar region, which may require Russian forces to make a tactical halt to to be targeted for such an offense.
• Russian sources claim that on the night of April 29-30, Ukrainian troops attacked targets in Crimea that were engaged with short-range anti-aircraft missile systems MGM-140 ATACMS.
• Tajikistan’s Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Mukhriddin expressed that the Russian authorities treated migrants from Central Asia, especially citizens of Tajikistan, noting that there is more control over migrants living and entering Russia after the terrorist attack at Crocus City Holi on March 22 continues. to disturb Tajik-Russian relations.
• Former Georgian Prime Minister and founder of the political party Georgian Dream Bidzina Ivanishvili repeated several of the usual Kremlin intelligence activities in his public appearances since announcing his return to Georgian public politics in December 2023.
• Russian troops recently made confirmed advances near Kremennaya, Chasov Yar and Robotino.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on April 30 that Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov and First Deputy Minister of Defense Ruslan Tsalikov inspected a drone test site in an area of -named in Ukraine.
• An investigation by Russian opposition publication Important Stories accuses Kremlin-appointed children’s rights ombudsman Maria Lvova-Belova and her sister of deporting Ukrainian adults with special needs to Russia.