“Russian Military’s Willingness to Use Nuclear Weapons in Invasion of Ukraine Discussed by Experts”

PRESIDENT Online

2023/04/27 13:00

Is there a possibility that the Russian military will use nuclear weapons in the invasion of Ukraine? Military analyst Yu Koizumi, physicist Masaru Tada, and Hudson Institute researcher Masaru Murano talk three times.

*This article is written by Masaru Tada.Introduction to Nuclear Weapons(Hoshikaisha Shinsho) Chapter 4 “Nuclear Weapons and International Politics” is partly re-edited.

Russia ready to use nuclear weapons in various situations

[Tada]What kind of uses are currently being considered in Russia, the United States, or other nuclear powers? Could you please explain whether you really have a strategy and scenario in place and are willing to use nuclear weapons, or whether you are not seriously considering using them in combat?

[Koizumi]I think it is Russia that has all the conceivable ways to use nuclear weapons. After all, they are the world’s second-longest nuclear arsenal and, alongside the United States, have the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Russia has every conceivable means of transporting nuclear weapons, such as airplanes and missiles.

[Koizumi]I think you should think that you can do anything you want to do, and that you can do anything, so you can think about anything. The problem is that the so-called nuclear strategy consists of a “declaration policy” and an “operational policy.”

The former is a policy of using nuclear weapons to send a message to the other party that I will use nuclear weapons at such a time, so it is better not to do so, and the way I think about using nuclear weapons in the event of actual war. is the latter.

When Russia will not hesitate to use nukes

[Koizumi]Of course, the latter, what to do in the event of a real war, is not made public, nor is it described in a way that is easy for an outsider to understand. It’s probably created as a list of targets or a specific strategy plan of which target to target with which method, so there must be an easy-to-understand list that says, for example, when to use a nuclear weapon in a particular situation. plug.

Declaration policies are the only ones that have a straightforward list of items. As for the case of Russia, conventionally only one was known. It’s a document called “Military Doctrine,” and it has two standards.

Roughly speaking, one is the case that weapons of mass destruction are used against Russia, and in that case, we will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons.

The other is that even if it is an attack with conventional weapons, it will use nuclear weapons even if Russia falls into a crisis of national survival. These two points were clearly shown for the first time in the 2000 Military Doctrine, and although the expressions have changed slightly since then, they have been followed in the later 2010 and 2014 versions.