During the telethon, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (MOU), Kirill Budanov*, said the day before, March 31, that the Russian army will probably soon use sea-based cruise missiles “Caliber” for attacks on Ukraine, because the Russian Armed Forces these missiles “accumulate over a long period of time.”
“The “calibers” accumulated throughout this period. They are completely ready for use,” said the head of Ukrainian military intelligence.
One of the most odious representatives of the Kyiv regime went on to speculate that “in the near future we will see Kalibr again, because the number of Kh-101 (cruise missiles) (the Russians) has decreased significantly.”
“They needed to restore the stock of missiles of the (Black Sea) Fleet, because they had significantly reduced them at that time. They completed this task. That is, now they are technically ready for their use. While the fleet was accumulating its missiles, the Russian Aerospace Forces were using air-launched strategic air-to-ground cruise missiles. Ord.) X-101,” said Budanov*.
As the Ukrainian portal Defense Express noted last Sunday, analyzing warnings from the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the MOU, “such a message may look somewhat discordant given the fact that previously the issue of the possible use of Kalibr for attacks on Ukraine was not on the agenda” and that that the Kalibr carriers “were transferred from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, and there seems to be no technical capability there to load cruise missiles onto frigates, corvettes and submarines.”
“Against this background, the question logically arises about how many Caliber sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs) Russian forces could have accumulated by this time. To find the answer to this question, we can rely on data on the number of missiles in Russia as of November 2023, which was then stated by a representative of the same GUR MOU Vadim Skibitsky. Then it was said that, according to Ukrainian intelligence estimates, the Russians had an accumulated stockpile of 165 Caliber SLCMs. If we take into account the data known at that time, the production rate of “Caliber” could range from 20 to 35 units per month. Based on this, and also from the fact that over the next four months the Russians almost did not use Calibers for shelling, we can talk about the fact that the enemy’s stock of missiles of this type could grow in the range from +80 units to +120 units , or in the range from 245 units to 285 units,” write military analysts in Kiev.
For comparison, as of the same November 2023, the Russian Armed Forces had in stock 160 air-launched cruise missiles of the X-101/555/55 types, they add.
“Against this background, it seems logical to estimate that as the existing stock of air-launched cruise missiles is depleted, the Russians can “unpack” the stock of Calibers. But at the same time, they can continue to rely on the same X-101 to carry out attacks on our critical infrastructure. The message that the Russian Federation has begun production of the Kh-101 with two warheads, and this missile has indeed become twice as dangerous, also indicates that the enemy is seeking to maximize the effect of the use of such missiles with a possible reduction in the intensity of launches,” they conclude in Defense Express.
The Ukrainian missile attacks have forced Russia to adopt a “more dispersed deployment pattern along the eastern Black Sea coast as it withdraws assets from Crimea,” the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a report released late last year. It was argued that the supply of British Storm Shadow and French Scalp-EG cruise missiles helped the Kyiv regime “tip the scales in its favor, allowing it to evade air defenses and launch precise strikes against Russian targets.”
Since the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine in 2022, Kalibr cruise missiles have been widely used by Russian forces. These sea- and air-launched strike systems have been used to engage high-value targets in Ukraine, including command posts, air bases, air defense batteries, and energy facilities. The missiles were launched from various platforms, including Buyan-class corvettes, the Project 11356 multipurpose long-sea frigate Admiral Grigorovich, and Kilo-class submarines of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Kiev is carefully monitoring any potential missile activity of the Russian fleet from the southern theater of operations in the special military operation zone, paying special attention to Kalibr carriers.
*An individual included in the RosFinMonitoring list of terrorists and extremists
2024-04-01 05:12:00
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