Main
• The Russian market opened with an upward gap and maintained upward dynamics throughout most of the session due to the currency factor. The Moscow Exchange index closed at a new monthly high in good plus, despite the oil drawdown. Trading volume increased noticeably.
• The ruble recovered after a negative start, but failed to maintain a moderate positive position, falling sharply towards the end of the session. Nevertheless, the final losses turned out to be small, and some currencies managed to strengthen.
• OFZ quotes maintained a moderate upward trend: the RGBI government bond index rose for the third session in a row, but failed to overcome the two-week high that was set on Thursday.
• Leader: Astra (+20.1%), RussNeft (+6.08%), NKHP (+5.83%), Bashneft ap (+4.45%)
• Outsiders: Genetico (-4.27%), Softline (-3.73%), Globaltruck (-3.03%), Positive (-2.7%)
In detail
Russian stock market on Monday it opened with a gap up and was actively rising for some time. Then the Moscow Exchange index corrected moderately, but in the middle of trading it returned to progressive growth. The stock indicator closed at a new monthly high in positive territory.
Currency factor today mainly prevented a more confident rise in the Moscow Exchange index. The ruble tried to develop an upward momentum, and only returned to a slight minus in the second half of the session.
However, over a longer horizon, the longer the ruble remains at current relatively low levels, the stronger the accumulating positive effect on the financial performance of many companies.
External background also did not create consistently favorable conditions for our market. Oil prices experienced several drawdowns. One of them occurred at the start of Russian trading, and the most serious one occurred in the second half of our session.
Relative strength of our market may indicate a return to increased investor interest in a wide range of stocks. The trend may intensify due to another wave of influx of funds into stocks, including for the purpose of protection against inflation and depreciation of the ruble over the long term.
Trading volume (77.4 billion rubles) increased noticeably, however, mainly due to the traditional Friday drawdown of the indicator. Moreover, it still falls short of September highs. Nevertheless, increased trading activity increases the likelihood of continued growth of the Moscow Exchange index, at least in the short term.
Shares of Astra Group of Companies became the absolute growth leaders, and took second place in terms of trading volume, behind only Sberbank and ahead of LUKOIL. At the start of the session, growth reached the maximum permissible 39.8%, but by the close it was possible to maintain only about half of this plus. Thus, from the Friday IPO price 333 rubles. The company’s shares rose in price by almost 70%.
Oil and gas sector today showed one of the best results for the sectoral index among the stock exchange indicators. All representatives, led by RussNeft securities, rose in price, reacting to the strong financial reporting according to RAS for 9 months. 2023. The preferred shares of Bashneft and Surgutneftegaz were slightly behind them.
Shares of VTB and Sberbank showed accelerated growth rates against the backdrop of the statement by the head of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation that the receipt by the budget of super-income of banks would require changes in basic taxes. Now there are no such plans, but, according to him, the ministry can receive this excess profit in 2024 through increased dividends. The Ministry of Finance expects the level of dividend payments of Sberbank to be no lower than 50% of net profit at the end of 2023.
Ruble after a negative start, it quickly recovered, strengthening its upward dynamics in the second half of trading. However, it was not possible to develop an upward movement: the Russian currency returned to a moderate minus by closing.
The ruble continues to make multidirectional movements, the dollar remains in the Thursday range of 96.45–97.99 rubles. It was formed after a large downward gap that occurred that day due to the authorities’ decision to introduce mandatory return and sale of a large share of export proceeds.
The effect of the exchange control regulation may take several months to begin to manifest itself, given the time lag given to exporters to implement their obligations under the new measure. In addition, most of them have been selling approximately comparable amounts of foreign currency earnings on the domestic market for a long time, so the impact of this norm is unlikely to be strong.
Quotes at 19:00 Moscow time
Stock indices
Moscow Exchange Index: 3234.78 points (+1.33%)
RTS Index: 1047.00 points (+1.25%)
RGBI: 118.92 (+0.18%)
Currency and raw materials
USD/RUB: 97,40 (+0,16%)
CNY/RUB: 13,298 (-0,09%)
Brent oil: $89.95 (-1.15%)
BCS World of Investments
2023-10-16 18:56:15
#Trading #results #Jerk #upward #increased #speeds
