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Russian LNG Delivery to China via the Northern Sea Route: Challenges and Market Considerations

The tanker “Veliky Novgorod” with a cargo of Gazprom LNG has passed the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and is approaching China. But the second gas carrier did not take the Arctic route to Northeast Asia, but turned to Europe, although it also received permission to pass through the Northern Sea Route.

The gas carrier Veliky Novgorod has entered the Yellow Sea and is heading to one of the ports of China. The tanker indicates that it will arrive at its destination tomorrow, September 13th. This will be the first time in history that Russian LNG is delivered from Baltic plants to Asia and along the Northern Sea Route.

In almost a month of travel, the LNG ship from the Portovaya Baltic complex covered more than 8,500 miles. A third of them are along the Northern Sea Route, which did not turn out to be easy for the gas carrier. Obviously due to the ice conditions. The ship sailed on its own. In the Kara Sea, it unexpectedly turned away from its usual route and, before the Vilkitsky Strait, went around Russky Island from the south, making a detour. Further, already in the East Siberian Sea, “Veliky Novgorod” stopped sailing along the Northern Sea Route for a day and maneuvered until the icebreaker “Sibir” approached the ship.

“Veliky Novgorod” has an ice class of Ice2, but it is completely incomparable to Arc7, which the gas carriers serving Yamal LNG have. Tankers of the Arctic project sail independently and, for example, the Christophe de Margerie, having passed the Vilkitsky Strait three days later than the Veliky Novgorod, has already managed to unload in China and set a reverse course for the Yamal LNG.

The second tanker delivering Baltic LNG, Pskov, left Portovaya on August 30. However, it never went along the Northern Sea Route, although the ship also received permission to travel the Arctic route. It is valid until October 3. The gas carrier follows the traditional route to the Mediterranean Sea and points to the Suez Canal as its final destination. After this, Veliky Novgorod and Pskov were usually unloaded in Turkey or Greece. These two countries have become the main countries for receiving LNG from the Portovaya medium-tonnage complex, which Gazprom launched a year ago.

Obviously, the reason for abandoning the NSR and Asia was most likely not the ice situation, but the market situation. Gazprom stated that LNG from Portovaya is sold on the spot market and depends on current demand and price.

For example, this summer demand for gas fell in Europe and in July-August the Pskov and Veliky Novgorod maneuvered in the Mediterranean for three weeks awaiting further orders. After which “Veliky Novgorod” left for loading at Portovaya and further to Asia along the NSR. And the Pskov began unloading at the Greek terminal of Revitus.

According to EEX, spot gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub today were $412 per thousand cubic meters. At the same time, quotes for LNG supplies to Northeast Asia (JKM) are at $475. Despite the fact that the costs of delivery to China along the NSR are significantly higher than the passage along Europe, and the round trip will take the tanker at least two months. This is a loss for shipments at Portovaya, unless a replacement is found for the tanker that left for a long voyage.

As EADaily reported, the Portovaya complex is Gazprom’s first LNG plant in Europe. Its capacity is 1.5 million tons of LNG (2 billion cubic meters of gas) per year. While supplies of Russian pipeline gas decreased last year and this year, liquefied gas supplies increased. Unlike pipeline gas, which Gazprom sells under a new payment mechanism, traders buy Russian LNG as before.

#tanker #Gazproms #Baltic #LNG #Arctic #route #China #EADaily
2023-09-12 15:51:00

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