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About the article
A day after the crash of the Russian military transport Il-76 over the Belgorod region, very little is still known about the circumstances of the disaster: in fact, all we know for certain is that the plane crashed and that on January 24 an exchange of prisoners was supposed to take place between Ukraine and Russia. Was the plane shot down and, if so, by whom? Were there any prisoners on board and will the disaster freeze further exchanges? Who is responsible for the crash and what do they think about it in Ukraine? The BBC tried to find answers to these questions.
Why did the IL-76 crash?
The BBC showed a video of the wreckage of a Russian Il-76 to military experts: in their opinion, the damage most likely indicates that the plane was shot down by an anti-aircraft missile.
Military analyst Christopher Petrov notes that footage of the plane crash “indicates [полученные им] damage before the crash.”
Petrov suggests that a fire started on board the Il-76 a couple of seconds before the crash.
Russia has insisted from the very beginning that the plane was shot down by Ukraine. The country’s Ministry of Defense claims that they were able to record the launch of two Ukrainian missiles from the area of Liptsy, Kharkov region.
Photo caption,
Plane crash site
From the Ukrainian side the most detailed explanation The Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) gave information about the incident – it does not directly say why the Il-76 crashed, but it states that Moscow did not inform Kiev that a plane with prisoners would be traveling along this route at that time. This has prompted many experts and observers to conclude that Ukraine does not deny its responsibility for the downing of the Il-76.
In an evening address on January 24, Vladimir Zelensky said that Ukraine would insist on an international investigation into the disaster. The Kremlin responded by making it clear that they were only interested in investigating “the criminal actions of the Kyiv regime.”
On January 25, the SBU opened a case under the article on violation of the laws and customs of war in connection with the death of the plane. Following this, Russia opened a case – but under the article it was an act of terrorism.
Western countries have not yet put forward alternative Russian versions: for example, the United States, which provides military assistance to Ukraine, limited itself to a very vague comment.
“We have seen the reports, we are trying to get information, but it would be imprudent for me to make assumptions. We don’t know how reliable these reports are. Ukraine says one thing, Russia says another, we don’t know enough,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.
After the downing of flight MH17 in the skies over the Donbass in 2014, the United States was the first to claim that it had evidence of the circumstances of the crash, and two days later it published satellite images that showed the trajectory of the Buk missile that shot down MH17. Thanks to these images, it was possible to quickly determine the launch site.
Why weren’t the missiles shot down?
Video caption,
Video of a plane crash in the Belgorod region
If Russia detected the launch of missiles, the question arises: why did the air defense system not shoot down these missiles?
The France Info television channel, citing a source in French military circles, claims that the Il-76 was shot down by a missile fired from the Patriot complex.
This assumption was previously voiced by the Russian side, if only on the grounds that Ukraine has no other known weapons that could shoot down a plane at such a distance.
Patriots are interceptor missiles that typically serve as a means of interception rather than as a target.
An anti-aircraft missile does not fly along a ballistic trajectory or the trajectory of a cruise missile. It is directed upward and accelerates until the very moment of collision with an object in the air.
At the same time, the very purpose of an anti-aircraft missile implies that it must be able to maneuver with greater overloads than its targets – be it a ballistic missile, cruise missile or aircraft. Its flight speed is usually higher than that of potential targets.
From this we can conclude that it is very difficult to calculate the flight path of such a missile heading towards the aircraft. Accordingly, shoot her down.
A similar situation usually unfolds on the other side, when Russia bombs Ukraine with S-300 anti-aircraft missiles. Kharkov experiences particularly frequent S-300 arrivals – just a few days ago, eight people, including a child, were killed there as a result of massive shelling.
Were there prisoners on board?
Video caption,
On the morning of January 24, a military transport Il-76 crashed near Belgorod.
The information that there were Ukrainian citizens on board came exclusively from Russia. Moscow claimed that the Il-76 was transporting 65 prisoners who were to be exchanged that evening at the border of the Belgorod and Sumy regions.
The very fact of the existence of a plan for the exchange of prisoners was confirmed by the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine Andrey Yusov. While he did not directly address the downing of the Il-76 in his statement, he noted that the Ukrainian side “was not made aware of the need to ensure airspace security” in the Belgorod area and could not reliably say who was on board.
The Kremlin denies this: the day after the crash, the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, said that “Moscow promptly informed Kyiv about the transport of prisoners of war on an Il-76 aircraft.”
According to the testimony of now former prisoners of war, who are now in Ukraine, during exchanges in the fall of 2022 and spring of 2023, Ukrainians were transported on transport planes. The people exchanged then told the BBC that during boarding and transportation they were blindfolded, but even blindfolded it is not difficult to distinguish a civilian aircraft from a military transport. Several Ukrainians who returned home are convinced that it was the Il-76 that transported them.
Photo by PAVEL KOLYADIN/TASS
Photo caption,
The situation at the plane crash site
Former prisoner of war Maxim Kolesnikov, who was exchanged in February 2023, in a conversation with the BBC said that the logistics of the exchange were as follows: he, along with several other people, was taken in a paddy wagon to a military plane (he believes that it was an Il- 76) in the Bryansk region. Then the plane took off and flew to Kursk, where it picked up other prisoners. Only after this the plane landed in Belgorod, from where the Ukrainians were taken to the border for exchange.
In the interview, Kolesnikov also doubts Russia’s claims that there were only three escorts on board the Il-76. He is sure that he and the other prisoners were accompanied by a larger number of people.
Moscow is now proceeding from the fact that the Ukrainian military shot down the plane by mistake, a Russian interlocutor aware of the progress of negotiations on the exchange of prisoners told the BBC. According to him, there were indeed prisoners in the crashed Il-76.
“The Ukrainians, naturally, knew about the exchange and understood that the prisoners had to be delivered by plane. But they didn’t know which particular flight,” says the BBC’s interlocutor. This partially coincides with the version of the Ukrainian GUR, which claims that it did not know all the details of the delivery of prisoners to the border.
According to the BBC’s interlocutor, there is “a mess in communication between the military on both sides, plus a mistake on the Ukrainian side”: “The Ukrainian air defense is not kept informed about the exchanges.”
Ukraine still does not confirm that there were indeed prisoners on board. “We did not see any signs that there were such a large number of people on board the plane – citizens of Ukraine or non-citizens of Ukraine… But experts should look into this,” Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights Dmitry Lubinets said on January 25.
How will this affect future prisoner exchanges?
Photo by T.ME/HORIZONTAL_RUSSIA
Such situations always lead to mutual distrust and further complicate the already difficult process of prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine.
Member of the State Duma Defense Committee Yuri Shvytkin said that “until the circumstances of the plane crash are fully established, the exchange of prisoners will be suspended.” However, his boss, committee chairman Andrei Kartapolov, who initially expressed the same opinion, said the next day that the exchanges would still continue.
Ambassador at Large of the Russian Foreign Ministry Rodion Miroshnik said that Kyiv has questioned the possibility of any agreements.
And Dmitry Peskov said that he could not yet answer the question whether the prisoner exchange process would be suspended.
Here is what University College London political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov wrote about this: “Those who dealt with the logistics of the exchange of prisoners on both sides should have thought that the exchange was carried out practically across the front line at a time when it was in this area that the aggravation began and intensive exchanges were taking place punches is not a good idea.”
“With equal success, Russian missiles could have covered Russian prisoners of war, who were accumulated in temporary accommodation centers on the other side of the same border. A hard lesson for everyone. Probably, in the future, exchanges will be carried out through third countries, for example, Belarus and Poland, or all the details will be discussed in detail. If this incident does not interrupt the practice of exchanges for an indefinite period,” the expert believes.
Ukraine does not comment on future exchanges.
On the air of the United News telethon, Human Rights Commissioner Dmitry Lubinets noted: “I cannot publicly comment on this. I’ll say what I always say. A large team of the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War is constantly doing all the work to ensure that exchanges take place. […] After the big exchange on January 3, I said this: I hope that we will soon organize new exchanges, but again, do not forget with whom we are doing this. “According to my information, in my opinion, the Russians have not abandoned the idea of using prisoners of war, relatives of prisoners of war against the Ukrainian authorities, and they will constantly launch new information campaigns against our state.”
“Russia has always owned the exchanges. I gave as much to whoever I wanted and as much as I wanted,” says Ukrainian political scientist Nikolai Davidyuk. “Plus, she always deceived us during exchanges.” More for less. I tried to take away some of my top officers or those who shot at Maidan.”
“That’s why this is a story where they are now manipulating us, making us feel guilty,” he explains the mood in Ukraine. “Because you did something, we will not exchange prisoners.” And then it turns out that it was an ordinary Russian plane that was transporting, relatively speaking, Russian missiles, or was even empty. And we are tearing our hair out: because we knocked him down, we disrupted the exchanges. So, now we shouldn’t destroy their planes and tanks?”
Who is responsible?
image copyrightTass
For Ukraine, the answer is obvious – in any case, the blame lies with Russia, which started this war.
If we talk specifically about the Il-76 crash, the answer depends on whether Ukraine received information about the transportation of its citizens by this plane.
From Ukraine’s responses, we can conclude that the military transport aircraft is a legitimate target for Kyiv, since, according to the defense department, it transports missiles that Russia uses to bomb Ukrainian territories. At the same time, the Main Intelligence Directorate, which is directly involved in the exchange of prisoners, makes it clear in its statement that the Russian side previously provided information about when the plane with prisoners would fly, but did not do so yesterday (Moscow claims that it did).
The Il-76 probably flew with the transponder turned off – it is not on the Flightradar website, which detects the movement of aircraft using transponders.
If we depart from the circumstances of the Il-76 flight, then, according to the Geneva Conventions, Russia is obliged to take measures to ensure the safety of prisoners of war, especially during their transportation. But there are no prohibitions on transporting prisoners by plane anywhere.
It is unlikely that the delivery of prisoners from regions of Russia more distant from the border can be carried out by other means of transport.
The question arises to what extent flying near a war zone complies with the safety measures required by the Geneva Convention. But no one has an answer to this question.
With the participation of Svyatoslav Khomenko, Pavel Aksenov and Elizaveta Fokht.
2024-01-25 17:16:43
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