The Russian government has changed its forecasts for the ruble, admitting its powerlessness to strengthen the Russian currency.
A sharp increase in the key rate by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (from 8.5% to 12%) did not lead to a strengthening of the ruble. The maximum that was achieved was to stop the further rapid decline of the Russian currency. The incurability of the ruble seems to have been recognized by the Russian government, as evidenced by the exchange rate forecast included in the draft budget for 2024-2026.
According to Reuters, The Cabinet of Ministers of the Russian Federation expects that the average dollar exchange rate in 2024 will be 90.1 rubles. This is 17% (13.3 rubles) higher than predicted in April.
In 2025, the dollar, according to Russian government estimates, should cost 91.1 (77.6 rubles were predicted in April). In 2026, the ruble will fall to 92.3 per dollar (April forecast 78.8 rubles).
Thus, according to the expectations of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Russian Federation, there is no talk of any rollback of the exchange rate to the area of 75-80 rubles per dollar.
The dollar will cost above 90 rubles, despite the increase in oil prices: if in April the Russian government believed that the Brent price in 2024 would be $75.7 per barrel, now the forecast is $85 per barrel. In 2025, the price of Brent is expected to be $80.2 per barrel, in 2026 – $76.2 per barrel.
At the time of writing the news, the dollar on the stock exchange is trading at 96.49 rubles.
A euro costs 103.46 rubles.
It was previously reported that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation intends to further raise the key rate at its next meeting scheduled for September 15. The increase should range from 0.5 to 3 percentage points.
Let us remind you that banker and economist Alexander Savchenko believes that Russia will end the year with a rate of 95-110 rubles per dollar, and inflation will be 22-24%.
Author: Artem Malinovsky
2023-09-13 14:34:34
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