One of the Turkish ports may be a major hub for the re-export of Russian oil products to Ukraine. Over a month, more than 12% of the volume of fuel that Ukraine imported on average last year was delivered from there to the ports on the Danube. Experts believe that up to a third of imported autogas has Russian roots.
On the eve of the introduction of a ban on the import of Russian oil products to the EU, their supplies to Turkey are growing. At the same time, the export of fuel from Turkey to Ukraine is at a high level.
Thus, according to the navigation portals Vesselfinder and Marinetraffic, since the end of December, at least 9 tankers have loaded oil products in the port of Marmara Yereglisi on the coast of the Sea of Marmara and delivered cargo to the Danube ports of Reni and Izmail and Odessa. Two more vessels are only heading for Ukrainian ports. Obviously, we are talking about diesel fuel, which is also actively used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Within a month, tankers will deliver at least 70,000 tons of fuel to Ukrainian ports.
According to the Ukrainian customs, in the first ten months of 2022, 5.8 million tons of oil products were imported into the country. Thus, deliveries from Marmara Ereglisi can account for more than 12% of average monthly deliveries. According to tanker traffic data, the Turkish port is the largest source of fuel for Ukraine, which is delivered by sea.
At the same time, Marmara Ereglisi is also one of the largest points for receiving Russian oil products. Since January 20 alone, five tankers have been unloaded at the port terminals.
If Beks Blue, Yash, Asena came from Novorossiysk, then Mariner III came from Taman. And today Ice Victory from Vysotsk in the Baltic Sea was unloaded in Marmara Yereglisi. The latter is listed as a carrier of crude oil, but may also carry petroleum products. All tankers delivered at least 220,000 tons of fuel from Russia.
It is significant that all loading and unloading tankers, except for Asena, were serviced at the same terminal – Opet. The operator informs that Marmara Yereglisi has one of the largest storage facilities for oil products in Europe. Its capacity is 700 thousand tons. The operator also explains that the terminal also accepts fuel that has a transit status.
According to Vesselfinder, on January 24, three tankers with fuel from Russia were still at the Marmara Yereglisi terminal, and three ships serving the Ukrainian route were in the roadstead waiting to be loaded.
Also, tankers with Russian oil products are unloaded in the roadstead in the Sea of Marmara, in the ports of Mersin, Dertyol, from where Turkish ships also go to Ukraine. However, their volumes are incomparable with Marmara Yereglisi.
It is entirely possible that Turkish companies are reselling Russian oil products to Ukrainian traders at high margins and are essentially skimming the cream off the current situation. It is obvious that the current re-export channel may remain and even expand after February 5, when the EU countries will impose a ban on the import of oil products from Russia if European companies cannot find sufficient compensation for the volumes from alternative suppliers.
Within six months, Ukraine increased fuel imports by 12 times – from 58.8 thousand tons of gasoline, diesel fuel and liquefied gas in March to 709.5 thousand tons in August, the press service of the Ministry of Economy reported.
Even higher than diesel imports may be exports of Russian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), known as autogas. Analyst of the Ukrainian consulting group “A-95” Artem Kuyun estimates that up to a third of imports may be from Russia. In one of the social networks, he writes that autogas comes from Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and other countries, while Lithuania and Latvia cannot be exporters of this fuel by definition.
“It is more difficult with the Poles and Romanians, they have a theoretical opportunity to supply European gas here, and keep Russian gas for themselves. However, by indirect signs, we see that a lot of Russian resources go to Ukraine from there, – continues Artem Kuyun. – In short, as long as Russian oil products can be legally imported to neighboring countries, they will seep into Ukraine. And autogas, it seems, will not soon fall under the EU ban.”
The expert notes that on the Polish border, Russian autogas is sold at $600 per ton, while European LPG costs $800. In Poland, fuel from Russia occupies half of the market and stopping supplies will lead to a severe crisis, an analyst from the A-95 consulting group explained the situation. .
Leading Analyst at the National Energy Security Fund (NESF) and expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia Igor Yushkov notes that until February 5, Ukraine can receive Russian diesel fuel not only through Turkey, but also through the EU countries.
“Is it worth introducing restrictions on exports to Turkey after February 5 – this coin has two sides. We can try to arrange a shortage of fuel in Europe through Turkey so that they try to think only of themselves. On the other hand, we ourselves now need sales markets in order to earn money,” the expert says. – Therefore, there is no single solution: either you hit your own economy and at the same time the Ukrainian one, or you continue to earn money, believing that the restrictions are meaningless. We see what tremendous support is being provided to Ukraine, and if they scrape together tanks for Ukraine, then they will probably get fuel. Thus, the Russian leadership can choose the lesser of two evils.”
