Russian Forces Raise Flag in Avdiivka as Ukrainian Army Faces Pressure on Multiple Fronts
The Russian flag now flies high in Avdiivka, a town in eastern Ukraine that has been fiercely defended by Ukrainian forces for the past decade. This significant development comes as the Ukrainian army finds itself under pressure on multiple fronts along the 1,000-kilometer-long frontline that stretches from the Russian border to the Black Sea.
The Russian military seems to have sensed a window of vulnerability in its adversary. After two years of combat, Ukraine’s better units are exhausted, and with a new commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, leading the troops, they are facing challenges. Furthermore, Ukrainian forces are running short on shells and are vulnerable to relentless air strikes.
While President Volodymyr Zelensky and the armed forces aim to recover all illegally occupied territory, their current struggle is to prevent the Russians from adding to the approximately 18% of Ukrainian land they already hold. President Vladimir Putin has declared his intention to seize all of the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, and there are concerns that he may not stop there if given further opportunities.
The Russians launched a determined drive to capture Avdiivka in October, but their aggression extends beyond this town. They are also attacking near Bakhmut and Mariinka in Donetsk, as well as towards Kupiansk in the north. In Zaporizhzhia, on the southern front, both Russian and Ukrainian sources report a massive Russian build-up. Analysts estimate that a force of 50,000 men has been assembled in this area.
The Ukrainian military provides daily updates on the situation, revealing the firepower being brought to bear by the Russians. On Saturday alone, there were 82 combat engagements, with 13 missile strikes and 104 air strikes launched by the enemy. Ukrainian units in Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions are clinging to their defensive positions, repelling attacks and holding back the Russians.
The intensity of the fighting is not limited to Avdiivka alone. Ivan Tymochko, Chairman of the Reservists Council of Ukrainian Land Forces, highlights ongoing intense fighting in the Lyman-Kupiansk sector and near Bakhmut. The enemy has sharply amassed forces in the area of Robotyne, another flashpoint on the southern front.
In an effort to establish new defensive positions, the Ukrainians are building temporary fortifications north of Avdiivka on higher ground. While an immediate Russian assault on these lines is not expected as troops regroup, there is concern that outlying villages may be taken.
The destruction caused by Russian artillery and air strikes in Avdiivka has left the Ukrainians with no cover. This approach, to obliterate everything in their path, has proven successful for the Russians in other cities like Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Ukrainian soldiers on the ground express their frustration, highlighting the inadequacy of their small FPV drones against massive bombs that destroy buildings.
With the capture of Avdiivka, the Russians may release some units to reinforce attacks on the ruins of nearby Mariinka. Ukrainian defenses in the direction of Vuhledar are now under intense pressure. The Ukrainian military reported 23 attempted breakthroughs by the Russians in a single day.
To the west and northwest of Bakhmut, the Russian goal is the small town of Chasiv Yar, which sits on commanding heights within artillery range of Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka. The Russians have been relentlessly shelling Ukrainian positions in this area.
The Ukrainian military urgently requires more shells, especially 155 mm ones, to counter the enemy’s attacks from the flanks. Heavy equipment cannot move across icy fields and impassable roads, forcing the Russians to rely on small assault groups.
Despite losing nearly half of the Donetsk region to Russia, Ukraine remains determined to recapture its lost territory. However, the Ukrainian army is under pressure across the frontlines. Russian military bloggers report advances and pummeling of Ukrainian defensive positions with artillery and air strikes. The Russians have significantly increased their use of 500-kilogram glide bombs, leaving Ukrainian troops vulnerable.
President Zelensky revealed that for every Ukrainian soldier lost in Avdiivka, seven Russians were killed. The Ukrainian military claims to have inflicted heavy losses on the Russians, including personnel, tanks, and armored combat vehicles. While these claims cannot be confirmed, US officials have previously acknowledged that the Russians suffer heavy losses due to poor tactics. However, the Russian way of war involves sending thousands more into battle, regardless of losses, and their military manpower far exceeds that of Ukraine.
With Ukraine facing a shortage of weapons and munitions due to a lack of aid from the US Congress, the Russians are taking full advantage of their substantial superiority in artillery, armor, and airpower. The situation remains challenging for Ukrainian troops on
