Russian elected officials want to recognize Ukrainian territories as independent – VG

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The Russian Duma voted on Tuesday afternoon to recognize the self-proclaimed “People’s Republics” Donetsk and Luhansk as independent. It reports the news agency TASS.

The breakaway republics of eastern Ukraine have for years been controlled by separatist rebels believed to be gaining widespread support from Russia.

“If that happens, it will be another breach of Ukraine’s territorial integrity,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a news conference in Brussels on Tuesday.

– There is no doubt that Donetsk and Luhansk are part of Ukraine within internationally recognized borders. It will also be in violation of international law, and in violation of the Minsk agreement, and it will be more difficult to find a political solution within the Minsk agreement, Stoltenberg added.

Influence

This could be a move Russia will take to secure influence on Ukrainian soil, says Ukrainian security researcher Maria Avdeeva.

– This is probably part of a larger plan that can have major consequences. The recognition may mean that Russia is seriously considering a false flag operation in Ukraine, says security expert Maria Avdeeva to VG by phone from Kharkiv.

– Pressure agent

Now the resolution only needs President Vladimir Putin’s signature to be valid. In theory, it could happen very quickly, around one day, as when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014.

Avdeeva nevertheless believes that the signals given by Putin’s press secretary today suggest that it may take longer.

The point is that the threat that Putin’s signature could come at any time puts pressure on the West in the negotiations. It is perhaps no coincidence that this happens on the day German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz visits Moscow, the security expert believes.

According to TASS, 351 Duma members voted in favor, 16 against and one abstained.

Stoltenberg: Cautious optimism

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg can not confirm that Russia has started withdrawing forces at the borders with Ukraine, as the Russian Ministry of Defense announced on Tuesday morning.

But Stoltenberg says he is now a cautious optimist.

– There are signals of continued diplomacy. But we have not seen any signs of withdrawal on the ground, Stoltenberg said at a press briefing in Brussels, ahead of the alliance’s defense ministers’ meeting on Wednesday and Thursday.

– There are reasons for cautious optimism, he says.

Calculated move

Many experts have argued that Putin risks being frozen out of valuable international trade agreements if he launches a full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine.

If Putin recognizes the disputed territories, Russia can secure influence on Ukrainian territory, but without it acting as a direct invasion, researcher Avdeeva explains to VG.

– Then Russia can stage a provocation by claiming that Ukraine is about to invade these people’s republics, and thus legitimize sending its own forces there under the pretext that they only help their Russian-speaking brothers against “Ukrainian aggression”, she says to VG.

As recently as yesterday, Russia’s ambassador to the EU said that the country is ready to launch a counterattack if Ukraine were to attack Russian citizens in eastern Ukraine, reports Guardian.

Viral threats

Avdeeva says that she and her colleagues in the European expert organization have for a long time registered an escalation in the incidence of viral videos with a Russian addressee, which show what is to be Ukrainian military aggression against the pro-Russian breakaway republics. Russian media disseminates some of these.

The leader of the so-called People’s Republic of Donetsk recently said he was preparing for aggression by Ukrainian forces.

“We expect provocations from Ukraine and we are preparing for it in every possible way,” said Eduard Basurin, deputy head of the breakaway republic of Donetsk, according to TASS.

Can mean war in the east

The result may then be that Russia eventually manages to “move on” the border with Ukraine, Avdeeva explains.

This is because the Ukrainian forces stationed on the front line in the east will suddenly be on what Russia recognizes as non-Ukrainian territory.

Thus, a full-scale war could break out in this area, because this territory does not give Ukraine away without a fight, says security expert Avdeeva.

In that case, I do not think it will look like a normal war with army against army, but a combined Russian attack where all methods are used. But the only one who knows exactly how it will happen is Putin himself, says Avdeeva.

The researcher does not think it is in Putin’s interest to have a full-scale invasion of big cities like Kiev and Kharkiv, because because it will not help the Kremlin reach its goal.

But a minor invasion, under the pretext of helping the citizens of Luhansk and Donetsk, can help them get what they really want: to mark that Ukrainian territory is still, and remains, Russia’s sphere.

If you need an explanation – here is the background to the conflict:

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