For the next two years, the Kremlin will have enough money to more or less maintain the stability of the economy, and then a deadlock may set in, says economist Igor Lipsits.
What is happening now with the budget of the Russian Federation is reminiscent of the situation that at one time became one of the global reasons for the collapse of the Soviet Union. The point is that a third of the Russian budget is currently spent on the military sphere; a similar picture was observed in the USSR in the last years of its existence.
Doctor of Economic Sciences Igor Lipsits, answering on air FREEДOM. LIVE When asked whether large expenditures on war could lead to the collapse of the Russian Federation, he stated that due to the economic factor alone, “Russia will not collapse.” He noted that a complex of factors led to the collapse of the USSR, in particular, the desire of people to live independently of Moscow on their national territories played an important role. At the same time, the economy also had a significant influence, since, without money in the budget, Moscow could not suppress the local elites. A similar situation may repeat in the Russian Federation.
According to the economist, already in 2026, a hopeless situation may arise in the Russian economy, when the money from the National Welfare Fund runs out, large funds will be withdrawn from the economy through bond sales, and the public debt will increase.
The expert recalled that Russia has always been proud of its small public debt, but now it has grown significantly and will continue to grow
“And the Russian Ministry of Finance is already saying that this is an inevitable, hopeless situation”– said the interlocutor.
The economist noted that to solve economic problems, the Russian authorities may resort to confiscating money from the population, but in such a situation, it is possible that groups will emerge that will try to take power into their own hands.
“The economy will already be so worn out, so ruined, that the desire will appear, the desire to change the leadership of the country will begin to be realized. Then there may be some new turns.”the analyst added.
Earlier, the media reported that in the first half of 2023, Russia spent more than 5.5 trillion rubles on military expenditures. This is 12% of the amount that was provided for the entire current year.
At the same time, in the Russian Federation there is a shortfall in oil and gas revenues to the budget due to the loss of markets in Europe, where Russian oil and gas were traditionally exported.
Author: Artem Malinovsky
2023-10-01 20:22:28
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