According to experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia is trying to continue to present large-scale NATO exercises Steadfast Defender 2024 in the information space as provocative.
Source: ISW
Details: Russia is conducting an information operation to portray NATO’s defense exercise Steadfast Defender 2024, which is a response to Russian aggression against Ukraine and Russian threats against NATO members, as provocative.
NATO exercise Steadfast Defender 2024 begins this week and runs until May 2024.
The report recalls that the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) responded to the initial announcement of the Steadfast Defender exercise in September 2023 and falsely stated that the NATO exercise was increasingly provocative and aggressive in nature.
The Russian Foreign Ministry claimed that NATO was continuing a “show of force” on “Russia’s doorstep.”
The department also said that Russia regularly proposed de-escalation initiatives to NATO, called on NATO to abandon provocative actions and moved Russian military exercises inland.
Russian sources claimed that NATO was using the exercises to “wind up” and incite the Baltic states to prepare for war with Russia and characterized such exercises as a “series of provocations.”
On January 17, Yulia Zhdanova, a member of the Russian delegation at the 1066th plenary meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, similarly stated that NATO exercises on the Russian and Belarusian borders “provoke playing on nerves” and “compress the spring of escalation even more.”
A Russian military blogger with ties to the Kremlin dismissed Pistorius’s comments about a possible future Russian attack on NATO, arguing that European officials regularly make statements about the “Russian threat concept” and that few Germans actually agree with those statements.
He hinted that the German government is trying to artificially create a threat from Russia that doesn’t actually exist by paying experts to “say the right words.”
Analysts note that the Russian information operation, aimed at portraying NATO’s defensive actions in response to real Russian aggression on the eastern flank of the Alliance as provocative, is intended to divert attention from recent aggressive Russian rhetoric and behavior towards NATO.
Russian officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have recently threatened Finland and the entire NATO alliance.
ISW continues to believe that Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022 not to protect Russia from a non-existent NATO threat, but rather to weaken and eventually destroy NATO, a goal he still pursues today .
ISW Key Findings for January 19:
- Russia is conducting an information operation to portray NATO’s defense exercise Steadfast Defender 2024, which is a response to Russian aggression against Ukraine, and Russian threats against NATO members as provocative.
- Russian forces will be able to determine the location, pace and operational requirements of combat in Ukraine if Ukraine commits to defensive operations through 2024, something some U.S. officials are reportedly demanding of Kyiv.
- U.S. officials believe Ukraine will have to fight a long war and will continue efforts to provide as much security assistance to Ukraine as possible through 2025, with the expectation that trench warfare could continue in Ukraine until 2026.
- Russia is trying to improve relations with South Korea to mitigate the effects of its growing dependence on North Korea.
- Protests in support of the jailed prominent Bashkortostan activist continued in the Republic of Bashkortostan, but Kremlin mouthpieces denied reports that the protests were significant in scale.
- The Russian government continues efforts to codify legal oversight of the activities of migrants living in Russia.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allocating funds for the search, registration and legal protection of Russian property abroad, including property in the former territories of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union.
- Russian troops have recently made confirmed advances southeast of Kupyansk, and Ukrainian troops have recently re-established positions southeast of Kupyansk amid ongoing trench fighting along the entire line of contact.
- The so-called “DPR” Vostok battalion announced on January 19 that it would resume combat operations at the front in Ukraine when the period of positional battles ends, and “will continue to serve” after the war, likely under the command of the Russian Guard.
- The Russian occupation authorities continue to use the provision of social benefits and medical assistance to strengthen passportization in occupied Ukraine.
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2024-01-20 02:56:57
