Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian targets have not been very strong this week. There were only two major strikes that were not aimed directly at military targets, but at infrastructure for the export of agricultural crops in and around Odesa. Especially in the second attack, these targets were actually hit, making it more difficult to deliver Ukrainian grain and other crops to the world market.
There was also an interesting detail about Shahid drones of Iranian origin. Spokesman of the Ukrainian Command South she said this week, that the Russians are launching drones assembled in Russia. This is allegedly proven by the marking of parts on the remains of drones that were found after the last attacks. If this is indeed the case, then it is increasingly likely that the Russians will be able to increase the pace of attacks by these kamikaze drones in the coming months.
Russian breakthroughs
The Ukrainian battlefield has witnessed very intense fighting in several areas over the past week. As usual, we will start from the north, where the Russian troops were more active. According to Russian sources an offensive was underway along the entire line Synkivka – Codhowever, it was more intense in the northern part of this front.
Mainly in this area, several smaller Russian attacks led to a change in the front line. Russian sources claim that these are relatively significant territorial gains in the order of tens of square kilometers. This was partially confirmed by some Ukrainian reports.
Units of the invasion force had apparently crossed the river Stallion, which until recently formed the front line and served as a natural obstacle preventing Russian offensive actions. One Russian source for example stated that Russian troops during the week u Karmazynyvky occupied 59 km2 of territory. The Ukrainian 25th Airborne Brigade was unable to hold its defensive lines. The source also claimed that the Ukrainians had problems with their reserves, but it is not clear what exactly this involved.
However, for a long time there was a lack of visual evidence to demonstrate these changes. It was only belatedly that the footage appeared, with which independent analysts and amateurs managed to document the place where they were taken, thus confirming at least partially the Russian procedure.
It is possible that Moscow will now build on these successes and deploy additional forces into the fight. The already mentioned Polish analysts also point out that the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army, which apparently has not yet been deployed in combat, is also stationed in the area of the northern front. If that happens, Russia’s advance may accelerate.
It is possible that Moscow will now build on these successes and deploy additional forces into the fight. The already mentioned Polish analysts also point out that the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army, which apparently has not yet been deployed in combat, is located in the area of the northern front, among others. If that happens, Russia’s advance may accelerate.
However, the overall situation is unclear. It is not clear how big the Russian gains are, whether additional forces are about to be deployed and how the Ukrainian command actually reacts. And he will probably have to react, because the Russian forces were apparently able to take advantage of the weaknesses of the units that were in charge of this section. Kiev may be forced to call in backups from other parts of the front, which of course may weaken defenses elsewhere or slow down some offensive operations
Bachmut
The most intense clashes in this area took place in the southern part of the Bakhmut front. In recent weeks, Ukrainian troops have gradually seized apparently all the fortified positions above the village Cliche.
During the week, fighting took place right in the village, which Ukrainian troops apparently already have under full control at the moment. Ukrainian forces have also advanced in the attack on those located further south Andriivku.
Although Ukrainian forces are slowly advancing in the south of the city, they are very, very far from encircling the city. Even though the battle is developing more favorably for Ukraine, it is definitely impossible to talk about its early end. In order for the Ukrainians to really threaten the Russian positions in Bakhmut, they would have to launch attacks on the northern flank, i.e. towards Soledar.
In other parts of the battlefield in the Donetsk region, the intensity of the fighting was rather lower. For example, there has been a slowdown in the pace of Russian efforts to strengthen its position around Avdiijivkywhich Russian forces have been trying to encircle for a long time, similar to Bakhmut at one time.
Southern Front
On the contrary, both sides fought with great commitment on the main two axes of the Ukrainian southern offensive.
On the eastern axis of the attack, roughly from Velika Novosilka, this week Ukrainian troops seized a village Staromajorska. In the near future, Urožajne will probably also fall, the position of the defenders is too disadvantageous.
At the same time, according to some military analysts, it is increasingly clear that this line of attack is actually helpful. Most of the forces are deployed in the second, more western axis of attack, which we will discuss later. At the moment, there is no evidence that the Ukrainian command has called any additional units to the attacks from Velika Novosilka to replace the units that have been conducting the attack there since the beginning of June. If this does not change, it is very likely that the pace of attacks will at least significantly slow down or stop altogether.
The state of the Russian troops defending the section is unclear. The Ukrainian 3rd Special Purpose Regiment captured several members of the Russian 247th Parachute Regiment in Staromaysk, which allegedly had significantly fewer men than it should have according to the table.
Airborne units are not usually used to defend the first front line in the Russian army. Rather, it forms a backup prepared in case of any sudden need or problem. The threat to Staromajorske could possibly have been such a case from the point of view of the Russian command. However, if the Russian paratroopers fulfill the tasks of the frontline infantry in this section as well (similarly as they did recently at Bakhmut, when other units did not cope with the task), it could mean that the Russian army has bigger problems with a lack of manpower than it has been thought. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, the Russian defense has always seemed to be sufficiently manned during the offensive so far.
Even tougher fighting took place in the second direction of the Ukrainian offensive, i.e. south of Orichivu. Ukrainian troops launched a major offensive here on Wednesday, July 26, the largest deployment of armored vehicles since the counteroffensive began in early June.
One a Russian blogger claimed, that the Ukrainians deployed 80 armored vehicles. Other sources stated that around 30 pieces of equipment were deployed, and unfortunately at this point it is not clear exactly where the truth lies.
The mechanized attack brought significant losses to the Ukrainian side, but at the same time it became clear that the deployment of technology can bring certain tactical results. Around the village of Robotyne, the attack pushed the front line several kilometers southward. Ukrainian forces apparently reached the first line of Russian “dragon’s teeth” trenches and anti-tank ditches for the first time. Ukrainian forces take him they even tried unsuccessfully overcome experimentally when they sent an unmanned combat vehicle at it.
New powers
The most important aspect of the attack, however, was what forces the Ukrainian command deployed against it. Most likely, the part of the units intended for the offensive (the so-called 9th corps) was removed from the front, and units from the so-called 10th corps were deployed instead. We remind you that originally the Ukrainians wanted to establish three churches, but they did not have enough equipment for them. Thus, most of the forces earmarked for the summer offensive were probably deployed in combat.
When the counteroffensive was launched, the 10th Corps was held in reserve by Ukrainian commanders. It was probably to be deployed in any gaps in the Russian defense lines when the forces of the “first echelon” (i.e. the 9th Corps) achieved a breakthrough. As this did not happen, the 10th Corps remained in reserve until this moment. This also meant that the 9th Corps had been fighting in the area for over seven weeks and the troops were exhausted. The Ukrainian high command, at least in the short term, seems to have come to the opinion that it should deploy new and fresh forces into the fight.
This can of course bring a number of advantages. For example, in the fact that both the team and the command (including the Southern Operations Command) had time to learn from the first days of the offensive, when the 9th Corps was quickly stopped by the Russian defense.
It is not certain how it was with the lesson, however. Some pro-Ukrainian war commentators and bloggers they point out, that the attacks of the last few days have apparently resulted in high casualties in some cases. It is not clear to what extent this is due to chance, the preparedness of the Russian defense or the mistakes of the Ukrainian commanders. After all, even some foreign analyzes draw attention to the fact that there are still not enough officers with high-quality Western military education, especially in the upper echelons of the Ukrainian army. In this regard, the situation is allegedly changing much more slowly than at lower command levels.
But let’s go back to the battlefield. The deployment of the 10th Corps probably means one more thing, how analyst Konrad Muzyka pointed out: the Ukrainian command does not expect a sudden breakthrough of the Russian defense. At the moment, it does not have any great forces in reserve that would be able to use and expand such a breakthrough. Unless the forces from the front of the detached 9th Corps are in extremely good condition, and the rotation has not taken place for any reason other than his exhaustion, it will take him some time to restore his forces. According to the estimates of military experts, at least a month, more likely two.
Therefore, the Ukrainian command is likely to continue the strategy of gradually exhausting and “wearing out” the opponent. Which is actually a tactic that worked well last summer, when the Russian army gradually lost so many men in its attacks that it no longer had enough to occupy defensive positions. Compared to last summer, however, the Ukrainian army has better artillery, and is currently focusing a lot on winning the duel with Russian artillery. If it succeeds, Russia will lose an advantage in the most important weapon for it.
Of course, this way of fighting is not without its own losses, both men and women in arms and material. In this regard, the recent US decision to supply cluster munitions, which have apparently already begun to be used in Ukraine, especially in the south, plays a relatively large role. According to available data, the United States has approximately 3 million pieces of this ammunition in stock, which are no longer used by American forces.
Ukraine thus opened up a completely new source on the battlefield of a very effective type of ammunition for its guns. And while the deployment of this munition is controversial, it doesn’t really make an already dire situation much worse. Around the current front line there are millions of anti-tank and anti-personnel mines and a large amount of unexploded ordnance (including the cluster that Russia uses in large quantities). Even without the deployment of American cluster munitions, this is an extremely dangerous area that will have to be completely demined.
The lack of key artillery ammunition is therefore unlikely to stop Ukrainian offensive efforts in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, it will probably be difficult for Ukrainian forces on the southern front to maintain the pace of the advance. Russian defensive positions are far from broken through, on the contrary, they will only be denser, and probably occupied by better units (if the Russian problems with the lack of a team are not bigger than it seems).
The Russians also still have room to retreat. Behind them are more and more lines of trenches and prepared shelters to retreat into when their position becomes untenable. At the same time, the attacks understandably mean losses for the Ukrainian forces, sometimes considerable as in recent days.
What is interesting in this regard is that the Ukrainian losses to date have largely been made up of equipment of Soviet origin, such as BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles or T-72 tanks. Incidentally, this means that the Ukrainian forces most likely suffered significant losses in terms of people as well. The technique of Soviet origin did not prove to be very durable during the entire conflict. The results of modern western machines are much better. However, there are still not enough of these machines available.
There were a bunch of other interesting video that came out today, but nothing that changed the map so I wont get into it.
Here are the daily losses I could find and confirm today. pic.twitter.com/h8G5yd0DYa
— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) July 27, 2023
To summarize the situation one last time: Ukrainian troops have suffered significant losses in the main offensive this week, but the deployment of new troops means that they should have enough men and women and equipment to continue the offensive. In the next few, it will be seen whether this “second line” will do better on the battlefield than the newcomers who entered the fighting at the beginning of June.
Cherson
Finally, let’s stop briefly in the Kherson region, where the situation has not fundamentally changed in the last few years.
Russian forces continued routine artillery strikes on Kherson and Ukrainian positions north of the Dnieper River. On the other side, the Ukrainians maintained their positions at the Antonovsky Bridge. According to some Russian sources, they are expanding their bridgehead and carrying out local attacks on Russian positions to the east and west of the bridge.
2023-07-29 15:05:17
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