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Putin can adjust the occupied lands to the interpretation of the nuclear doctrine
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Such a scenario is possible if the President of Russia realizes his weakness and inability to control the situation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, most likely, plans to annex the south and east of Ukraine to the Russian Federation. This would mean that the Kremlin could claim that the Russian doctrine that nuclear weapons can be used to defend its territories applies to these territories, writes American Institute for the Study of War ISW.
According to analysts, such actions threaten Ukraine and its partners with a nuclear attack if the counteroffensive to liberate the territories seized by the Russian Federation continues. It is likely that Putin believes that the threat of a nuclear strike can stop the containment of Russia.
Experts add that the Russian military has not yet reached the territorial goals of capturing the entire territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and it is unlikely that they will succeed.
If Putin realizes his weakness on the front, he is likely to move quickly to annex and impose nuclear deterrence in order to maintain control over the occupied territories of Ukraine.
If the Russian president believes that the Russian army is capable of additional successes, then the annexation will be postponed, because the troops will try to seize more territory in Ukraine.
In this case, analysts believe, due to the poor leadership of the Russian army and the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a collapse is possible in the lavas of the invaders. Moreover, for the time being, Russian attacks can be contained by Putin in order to replenish the ranks of the army with an additional mobilization reserve.
The Kremlin is likely planning to annex much of the Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russian forces – parts of Kherson and Zaporozhye regions in the south and areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the east that are controlled by Russian troops and their puppets.
Thus, under the terms of the occupation, Russia will replace local media with Kremlin propaganda media, introduce Russian access to the Internet and mobile networks, put the Russian ruble into circulation, kidnap, execute and replace local officials with collaborators.
In addition, the opening of a “hunt” and the elimination of pro-Ukrainian activists and partisans is not ruled out.
Earlier, the adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs stated that Ukrainian troops are preparing a counteroffensiveincluding in the Kherson direction.
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