The negotiations are for the parliament, the war will not be short, writes Prof. Nikolay Vitanov today on Facebook.
But first about the epidemic situation in our country, and then about the war in Ukraine:
The basic reproductive number – today is 0.87. It is below 1, so the scope of the infection continues to shrink. The health system continues to unload. The Harry Serdon script remains stable. And there are practically no measures. Which means the sled is well reinforced down the slope.
You will not forget to ask me on April 20 what the secret I wrote about a week ago is.
2. No superfire. Well, there is nothing to do now. There is no.
“Harry Seldon” extinguishes the diffuse spread. As expected.
3. No overcrowded hospitals. There are no overcrowded hospitals.
There is no. Beds that are being transferred to other needs continue to be vacated. There is no chaos. There are mathematical criteria by which the beds are reduced and you can see that the reduction is going smoothly
4. No total lockdown. There is no. There won’t be. “Harry Seldon” did great here as well. This was announced in November last year, right?
5. Mortality – is slowly declining. The number of days in which the deceased will be a single digit will increase.
That’s what Harry Seldon said.
7. And so – the social system is still moving on the pre-determined trajectory of the “Harry Seldon” script you announced months ago. Things are under control. Is that correct? That’s right. If the measures fall within the set deadlines, they fall.
“Harry Seldon” did its job.
8. The cards today. It is calm on the Greek border. The new version of Omicron is gone. We keep it that way, turn off the diffuse spread and then try to turn it on again. If we are thugs, he will not succeed. That’s how the Harry Seldon script was calculated. He did his job. But you can see that there is still red and purple on the risk map. Omicron is not gone yet. It is your job to protect yourself. Which is also indicated by the forecast map for the 14-day morbidity. There is still a way to summer tranquility. But we took it.
Now for the war.
Let me remind you again – this is not a place for casting feelings, but for analysis. Pour your feelings elsewhere. The current situation is discussed here from an analytical point of view. Feelings interfere with good analysis.
Now essentially.
1. But it and American intelligence spoke of 45,000 Russian casualties during this war. Well, we agree with American intelligence.
2. The war will not be short. Not as you can see, and that was easy to predict. But I had said at the beginning that with Kharkov Russia would become an empire. I keep my word. Yes, I said that, my dear reviewers, which a decent forecast cannot make, and you are still trying to write a review of how incompetent Vitanov was and what nonsense he was talking about. Why waste your time with these writings? Because various complexes sting you from behind and you can’t control yourself. Therefore.
2. The Russian group of troops does not have the strength to effectively surround Kyiv. The Russian group of troops is not numbered to keep the whole of Ukraine in an occupied state. Therefore, Russia’s goals were originally different. What – the capture of Donbass and eastern Ukraine, cutting off Ukraine’s access to the sea.
I wrote to you that the fighting around Kyiv is for the parliament, I wrote to you that the negotiations are for the parliament. Here, you see with your own eyes, that’s right. I expected that the main theater of operations would be in southern and eastern Ukraine. Here, look with your eyes.
5. Mariupol fell. Ukrainian losses there are not small.
We do not write about it. There will be a lot of prisoners of war. The battle of the Kramatorsk Arc is slowly beginning. Starting from Izyum, the next destination is Slavyansk, as well as Severodonetsk.
Kramatorsk follows. We have already learned that there are no generals of the rank of Manstein in the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian group will stand near Kramatorsk. With the corresponding bloody consequences.
The fate of eastern Ukraine will be decided there. But there the Ukrainians would knock the pitcher of the plucked grandmother Meca. So, and then, as they rush, they will take Moscow on May 9 and make a parade of victory on Red Square. On good drugs you are the ones who say such things. The truth will be as ugly as ever. Sober up and I’ll tell you.
6. Technical refraction – that’s what we agreed to talk about in mid-April. There is no readable oil refinery left in Ukraine. So soon the tanks will not be able to move.
That is, they will not be able to move if they are found. The anti-aircraft installations of the Ukrainian army are being methodically disabled. The biggest mistake would be to engage the weakened Ukrainian army in battles on the open field. Their chance is to stay dug in the cities. And to hope that the Russians will not use their largest weapons, that then it will really become a mess.
7. Mental refraction.
There were giant screams about what I wrote yesterday about Bucha. We are trying to inflate the propaganda bubble. Srebrenica? Where are the 7,000 corpses? From my point of view – extremely clumsy fake. They will blow it, blow it, and when they see that nothing is right, they will abandon it.
The idea is in the right direction – Russian beasts are killing us, but the realization is totally amateurish. Any serious analyst will tell you that.
Interestingly, some of the corpses have white stripes. Sympathizers of the Russians means. Which raises an interesting question. And since the answer to this question must be wrapped up, the Bucha case will be swept under the rug. Watch. And don’t go for propaganda tricks.
Remember Bismarck about lies and war.
Growing devastation in Ukraine is driving propagandists there to use increasingly jagged propaganda methods. Russian beasts, millions of destroyed Russian tanks, powerful counter-offensives. And it will get worse. The Russians do not need to use more such propaganda methods.
The war is outside of Russia, they must keep the Russian population in a proper mental state, which they are doing.
The daily showing of videos of the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment is slowly undermining Ukrainian fighting spirit. If they manage to defeat the Ukrainian Kramatorsk group, the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian army will go away completely, at least in the eastern part of Ukraine.
This is the situation. What will happen, we’ll see soon.
8. On the fronts. Preparations for the battle of Caratorra were over. It began with the battles for Severodonetsk and Sloviansk. The Russians will try to cater to the Kramatorsk Ukrainian group, so big fighting is expected in the area between Kramatorsk, Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk. The bonus for the Russians from winning the Battle of Kramatorsk is clear to you – Kharkov.
As you know, my opinion is that the battles on the other fronts are for parliament, the negotiations are also for parliament. Until the battle of the Kramatorsk Arc is over. That’s what I think.
I may be ugly and stupid, but so far I have a good idea of what the Russians will do. However, I immediately sprinkle my head with ashes – I’m not a jerk with beautiful feathers, I can’t squat loudly and I don’t write reviews in Gank’s cafe, watching my reflection in the stream to the cafe and cursing Vitanov that spoils the mental pleasure of a good view of my own in the stream.
This is the situation. We are waiting to see what will happen.
And while we wait and watch, we remember Bismarck. Deto did not know how to return the bear to the lair and that the war was one of the three most lied events.
Otherwise, war is a nasty thing. And remember this – whatever propaganda tricks are done, the question will have to be answered in the end – why did you get the bear out of the den? This cannot be swept under the rug. You know that I am very surprised by the amateur level of propaganda in this war. But what to do, the world is big and surprises lurk everywhere.
I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you. And let the war surround you.
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