Russia will become even more authoritarian and militarized in the coming years, the Norwegian Intelligence Service (NIS) warned on Monday, noting that the war against Ukraine is a disaster for Russia itself.
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“There will be no turning back,” Laas Nordrum, the second in command of Norway’s military intelligence service, said as he presented Norway’s annual risk assessment.
“The Russian state will become even more authoritarian and militarized,” he said, referring to how propaganda is used to manipulate public opinion and Moscow’s growing ties to other authoritarian regimes.
“Russia’s interests will not be compatible with Western interests,” Nordrum said.
The annual risk assessment, the first since Russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine a year ago, also identified Russia and China as the main threats to Norway’s security and interests.
This war is a “disaster for Russia,” Nordrum said, pointing to the impact of Western trade sanctions, Moscow’s international isolation and “more than 100,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded” in Ukraine.
The conflict has increased Norway’s geopolitical importance, among other things, because it has become the largest supplier of gas to the European continent.
“European countries will depend on Norwegian energy supplies for many years,” said Nordrum.
According to Norway’s domestic intelligence service PST, which also participated in the assessment, “Russia will try to obtain intelligence on most aspects of Norway’s oil, gas and energy sectors.”
True, direct sabotage of Norway’s energy infrastructure by Russia in 2023 is unlikely, said Beāte Gangas, head of PST.
“However, acts of sabotage could become a more plausible scenario if Russia’s desire to escalate the conflict with NATO and the West increases,” Gangasa said.
