/ world today news/ The climate in Russia is changing faster than in the whole world. On the one hand, it seems that warm weather brings some benefits to our country: it will become easier to extract oil in the Arctic, heating costs will decrease, and the Northern Sea Route will become a real gold mine. However, climate warming brings with it new risks and threats. Which ones?
According to Roshydromet, the climate in Russia is warming twice as fast as in other countries. Climate change threatens some sectors of the economy, primarily agriculture, housing and communal services and transport, Deputy Prime Minister Viktoria Abramchenko said at the Clean Country forum. “These industries must first of all adapt and take into account the climate change forecast,” Abramchenko said.
At first glance, global warming promises benefits, for example for agriculture. “Warming expands the area for growing crops and increases the number of areas suitable for agricultural development,” said Dmitry Vostrikov, executive director of the Rusprodsoyuz association.
Russia will conditionally be able to use the traditionally colder territories of Siberia or the Far East for agriculture. However, the effect of temperature will be mixed. In fact, on the other hand, the south of the country will more often suffer from drought, which is a terrible disaster for farmers. Warming is making the weather even more unpredictable.
“Increasing temperatures can also lead to more frequent droughts, which has a negative impact on crops. And vice versa, to waterlogging of the soil, which slows down the pace of harvesting, “says Vostrikov. As an example, he points to the summer drought in the south and in the chernozem region, which seriously affected the crops of sunflower, sugar beet and other technical crops, which ultimately led to an increase in the price of sugar and vegetable oil in the country. The drought also adversely affects grain yields, thanks to which Russia not only feeds itself, but also makes good money from exports.
In other regions, warming will lead to more frequent floods and forest fires, which is no less sad for crop production. In addition to reducing yields, this leads to soil degradation.
Abnormally high temperatures and humidity also provoke a sharp increase in the number of insects and pests, which increases the cost of protective equipment and affects the price of agricultural products, the source added.
Livestock farming also suffers from the high temperatures. Cases are known both in Europe and in Russia when chickens die due to unusual heat of 40 degrees: the ventilation systems are not ready for such anomalies. Cattle and pigs also have a hard time tolerating the heat: milk yield decreases, weight increases slowly. Therefore, the increase in temperature will require additional funds from the livestock industry to protect the business from the vagaries of the weather.
“However, in our view, global warming is not a death sentence. After all, the technologies in the agro-industrial complex also do not stand still. Regions can address climate challenges by expanding the use of new technologies, including for more accurate forecasts, experiments with new varieties, adjustments in crop rotation and the list of plant protection products and fertilizers used, taking into account the specifics of each specific region”, believes Vostrikov. All this, of course, will require additional investment.
The impact of warming on transportation and housing and utilities also appears unclear. On the one hand, this opens up new opportunities for safer and year-round shipping for the Northern Sea Route. This will open up incredible opportunities for exporting goods from Europe to Asia by the shortest route. By 2030, an increase in the transport of goods on the Northern Sea Route is expected from the current 30 million tons to over 100 million tons per year.
“Warming will allow navigable rivers to be used for a longer season. But warming itself could make the climate drier and lead to shallower rivers, which would affect both individual transportation routes and hydroelectric power plants. For example, since 2014-2017, Brazil already suffers from low water levels in rivers due to drought,” notes Anton Prokudin, leading methodologist of the Expert RA rating agency.
“On the one hand, northern deposits of natural resources will become more accessible for development. On the other hand, even now in the northern latitudes there are problems with the loss of the bearing capacity of the permafrost under buildings, infrastructure facilities, residential buildings, and according to forecasts, this negative effect will intensify over the years,” notes Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist.
Warming leads to destruction of roads, especially in Siberia, where swamps appear instead of frozen roads, says Artyom Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets. And now investments in road and housing infrastructure will be needed in truly colossal volumes.
Warming can also affect strategic sites – thermal power plants, nuclear power plants and others, which as a result threatens to increase man-made disasters, notes Deev.
“When the permafrost melts, it turns into a swampy mess. And during this slow process, the risks of various accidents and emergencies arise. To prevent the destruction of energy communications in the permafrost regions, it will be necessary to change the technologies for laying them. These are quite serious additional investments,” says Sergey Kondratiev, a senior expert at the Institute of Energy and Finance.
On the other hand, it can also benefit the economy. According to the expert, utility systems may begin to decentralize. “The example of Yakutia and Khanty-Mansiysk region shows how warming stimulates consumers and local energy companies to pay more attention to the development of local energy systems. For example, instead of running power lines to a remote village, wind turbines, solar panels with storage systems and small thermal energy can be installed as back-up capacities in case of prolonged quiet weather and lack of sun,” says the expert.
A shorter winter should, in theory, reduce heating costs for Russians, but it’s too early to rejoice. First, bills may increase in the summer due to more frequent use of air conditioners because it will get hotter. Secondly, huge funds will be needed to change Russia’s centralized energy system for the new consumption conditions. These costs will also have to be paid.
“Our central heating system is difficult to regulate, it is not designed to significantly reduce demand in the winter, it will find it difficult to operate in this mode. This is fraught with technical issues. Therefore, these systems will need to be restored. And this is an additional investment again,” says Sergey Kondratiev. The same applies to the increase in load on power transmission networks and substations during summer peaks. “New technologies will be required as the equipment may not be able to handle the summer loads, increasing the risk of outages and emergencies,” the source said.
In general, climate change leads to an increase in the number of extreme events, which poses a threat to the energy system. “If a large power system, such as those of Moscow or St. Petersburg, is faced with freezing rain not once every few years, but several times a season, then the technical requirements for the infrastructure will have to be reconsidered. For example, to increase the permissible load on the poles of the power transmission network or to increase the share of cable networks,” says Sergey Kondratiev.
Also, due to warming, problems may arise with hydropower and with the stable supply of water for the population and industry. “The situation we have seen over the past year in Crimea, where little rainfall has fallen and the region has faced drought, is indicative. If this spreads to large areas of the European part of the country and Siberia, then it will be a more serious challenge,” notes Kondratiev.
The situation with road infrastructure and housing stock due to warming can be much more difficult.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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