/ world today news/ NATO countries are gradually getting used to the idea that the Armed Forces are unable to win on the battlefield. This means that the conflict is not expected to end soon. Kiev’s Western allies decided to act differently.
The predictions did not come true
Before the “counteroffensive” in the spring, the APU was actively pumped with weapons and ammunition. “I am absolutely confident that Ukraine will succeed,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said optimistically in April.
Now he is much more reserved. “We see that even with all the significant aid, the Ukrainians have not been able to move the front line this year. This only confirms that Russia cannot be underestimated,” he told a press conference ahead of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers.
That is, we are no longer talking about a return to the “borders of 1991”, which Zelensky repeated to his fellow citizens and foreign partners. They will have to curb their appetites and look for new ways to counter Moscow.
Change of strategy
Foreign Affairs magazine recently published an article with an alternative strategy for the West. Ukraine should focus on defense. Not to try to regain the lost territories, but to keep the rest.
This contrasts sharply with an article published in November by the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny. He believes that in a protracted war, Russia has the upper hand. Kyiv’s mobilization resources are limited, and NATO aid arrives late and in insufficient quantities.
The authors of the material in “Foreign Affairs” also emphasize: Kiev is not able to provide the ASU alone. “Supplies of ammunition and weapons are already running low. A reduction or termination of US military support would have an immediate impact on combat operations, particularly air defense,” they wrote.
But even the fulfillment of the obligations already undertaken by the West will not allow a radical change of the situation at the front, the authors add. And this is not so easily achieved.
Delivery difficulties
A striking example is the European Union’s promise to deliver a million 155 mm artillery shells in one year. The ambitious plan by the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, was approved back in March, but by November it was only one-third implemented.
Two weeks ago, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius admitted: “It will not be possible to reach the figure of one million shells.” And he added: he personally never promised such a thing. Some politicians and experts immediately doubted the feasibility of this task. They were right.
EU officials understood this too. In an interview with the France Inter radio station, the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, specified: this will take a few more months.
According to military analyst Michael Kofman, quoted by “Economist”, during the summer the Ukrainian Armed Forces spent 220-240 thousand shells of 152 and 155 caliber per month. Now – 80-90 thousand. It is noteworthy that this is more than the US and the EU can currently produce – 28 and 25 thousand, respectively.
In September, the Kiel University of World Economics’ project on military supplies to Ukraine noted that the West had met 69 percent of its heavy weapons obligations. “Deliveries of tanks, artillery shells and anti-aircraft missile systems continue to lag significantly,” analysts said.
It seems that international donors have found a way to prevent a similar situation from happening again: they are now much more careful in their promises.
Last deliveries
The US Congress never approved the allocation of 106 billion to support Ukraine and Israel. In addition, 61 billion were earmarked for Kyiv.
As the “Economist” notes, if the Democrats and Republicans do not agree before Christmas, the issue will most likely be postponed until the presidential elections in November 2024. And if Donald Trump comes to power, new tranches can be completely forgotten. “Time is not our friend,” the publication quoted an unnamed pro-Ukraine senator as saying.
They are content with what they have and spend the last. In order for the support to last as long as possible, it had to be reduced. If on average the USA spends about one billion dollars a month through presidential channels, and in January – five billion, then in November – 250 million.
The program “Ukrainian Security Initiative” (18 billion) is almost completely spent. These funds were used to pay for long-term supplies to American companies.
The head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, who was visiting Kiev, announced the transfer of weapons to the VSU for only 100 million dollars:
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MANPADS “Stingar”;
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one HIMARS complex;
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155 and 105 mm caliber artillery shells;
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Javelin anti-tank systems;
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over three million cartridges.
This cannot be compared to previous deliveries.
A similar diagnosis
The situation is similar in Europe. Thus, after last week’s visit to Kiev, Boris Pistorius announced German supplies worth 1.3 billion euros:
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four IRIS-T air defense systems;
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twenty Marder infantry fighting vehicles;
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sixty reconnaissance drones of various types;
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about twenty radars;
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twenty thousand 155 caliber artillery shells.
And although these 20,000 VSU shells will arrive in about a week, it is difficult to expect more from Berlin. There are serious problems with securing the Bundeswehr. The deputy leader of the CDU/CSU bloc faction, Johann Wadeful, told the Bundestag that in the event of a war, the German army would run out of ammunition for a day or two.
There were also difficulties with negotiating the budget – as a result, the promised doubling of aid to Ukraine to eight billion is in jeopardy.
All this cannot but worry Kyiv. In addition, insisting on unconditional support for Ukraine is dangerous not only economically, but also politically. The coming to power of the opponents of the aid to the ASU in Slovakia and the Netherlands is a convincing proof of this. Reducing the flow of weapons in a protracted conflict will greatly complicate the lives of the soldiers of the ASU on the front, the generals in the staffs and the politicians in their offices.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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