– He has made similar statements before, reassures Russia researcher. Jakub M. Godzimirski says, however, that one can not completely rule out an invasion.
Russian media mogul Dmitry Kiselyov, considered a mouthpiece for President Vladimir Putin, issued a stern warning to NATO this week, warning the alliance to stay out of the Ukraine conflict.
“Otherwise you will be transformed into radioactive ashes,” Kiselyov said, suggesting that the Russians are willing to resort to nuclear weapons in the event of an escalation of the conflict.
Earlier this week, Putin also made a sharp statement during a meeting with Russia’s defense minister and chief of defense. President Putin responded to the West’s last move to Russia to assist Ukraine with weapons and military training.
“If the obvious line of aggression of our Western counterparts continues, we will implement adequate military retaliation measures and act harshly against unfriendly steps,” Putin said.
– I also want to emphasize that we have every right to do so. “We have the right to act to protect Russia’s security and sovereignty,” Putin said.
The seas: Russia demands that NATO end all military activity in Ukraine
– Putin uses a little more serious language
Ukraine and many European countries fear that Putin has plans to invade the country. Putin rejects this, but it is clear that he wants to give the impression that an invasion may be imminent.
– The status now is that Russian forces continue to mobilize along the border with Ukraine, and they get a kind of logistical support with field hospitals and so on. At the same time, Putin has used a slightly more serious language towards the tops of the Russian Defense Ministry earlier this week. He talks about military technical solutions that may be used to strengthen Russia’s security, says senior researcher at NUPI, Jakub M. Godzimirski, to Nettavisen.
– But the way this is mentioned and talked about in the Russian media, may indicate that the population is being prepared for a diplomatic solution. Opinion polls in Russia also suggest that Russians do not want an armed conflict with Ukraine. Some believe that an operation may be imminent, while others believe Putin is doing this to strengthen Russia’s negotiating position vis – à – vis the West, Godzimirski says.
– Dmitry Kiselyov is referred to as Putin’s mouthpiece. What is the purpose of making such a statement now?
– He has made similar statements before and is known for this type of harsh statements. In 2014, he said that Russia could put the United States in radioactive ashes if the Americans tried something. He is the host of a weekly news program on the TV channel Rossija 1, which is one of Russia’s most important propaganda programs. Anyone who has followed the Russia discussion knows that he has a penchant for exaggerating. So you do not have to take it so seriously, says Godzimirski.
– Russia has five long-term goals
Putin has put forward a long list of sandwiches with demands, in the form of proposals for new security agreements with NATO and the United States, in which he demands, among other things, that NATO’s expansion cease and that the alliance’s activity in Eastern Europe be scaled down. One of the main demands is that Ukraine does not become a member of NATO. Among other things, Putin accuses NATO of military provocations near Ukraine.
During Putin’s annual press conference, which was held today on Christmas Eve, the Russian president said that his “American partners” had agreed to start a dialogue on the proposals in the new year.
Also read: Huitfeldt threatens Putin with sanctions
Godzimirski says Russia has five long-term goals.
– The most important goal is the regime’s survival and stability – that they maintain power. The second goal is that they want to have their status recognized as a great power with superpower capabilities in the form of having many nuclear weapons. The third is that they are concerned about having a security buffer and sphere of interest around Russia, such as that Ukraine should not be part of a NATO enlargement, he says.
The fourth is that Russia is also interested in having positive framework conditions for economic development, and then they need partners such as the EU. The fifth is that they are concerned with having international influence and an important role in international institutions to use them to advance their own interests, such as the right of veto they have as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Then they can stop all resolutions that go at the expense of their own interests, Godzimirski says.
Some analysts say Putin’s goal is to divide Europe and recreate the Soviet Union. What do you think about that analysis?
– It gets a little simplified. Russia has signaled many times that it wants to remove American influence from Europe. It is much easier for them to relate to “equal” great powers in Europe without US intervention. Therefore, they want to weaken the role of the United States in Europe. Therefore, they have also demanded that the United States withdraw all of its nuclear weapons from Europe. And more generally, one can say that the way to make Russia a great power again is to weaken the ability of others to influence Russia. NATO is a kind of stated goal for Russia, and has been for many years, says Godzimirski.
– Can not completely rule out invasion
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense states that at the time of writing, 122,000 Russian soldiers have been deployed within a range of 200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. In addition, there are another 143,500 soldiers within a range of 400 kilometers from the border, writes the Ukrainian website Ukrinform.
– Do you think there will be a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Godzimirski?
– I want to say it like that. I hope it does not. But you can not completely rule it out either, he says.
– Can a war between Ukraine and Russia trigger a nuclear conflict?
– Nuclear weapons are an advanced topic. Russia has in recent years sent signals that it may be willing to use nuclear weapons in a war to de-escalate if things do not go so well for them on the ground. That is, they blow up a relatively small nuclear charge somewhere to send the signal that they have extra insurance with nuclear weapons, and that if the other party does not meet their requirements, they will escalate with more nuclear weapons. They have many nuclear weapons in their nuclear arsenal. This is called a nuclear de-escalation. There has been a lot of debate about this, says Godzimirski.
– Russia threatens nuclear de-escalation, but they also know that a kind of nuclear de-escalation can result in the West responding with nuclear weapons, and then you can get an almost unstoppable spiral. There are many who believe that Russia may be able to do this. But many believe that it will trigger a spiral that no one has any preconditions to say where it ends. If you end up with a large exchange of nuclear attacks, then the world simply becomes an uninhabitable place, he says.
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