A church in Odesa whose ceiling was destroyed by a missile attack by the Russian military (Photo taken on March 8, from the website of the President of Ukraine)
One month has passed since the Russia-Ukraine war entered its third year.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told French broadcaster BFMTV on March 11 that “the situation on the front is better than it has been for the past few months.”
On March 21, General Oleksandr Shirsky, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, also stated that the military had “succeeded in stabilizing the situation” in eastern Ukraine.
So, despite the loss of Audi Ivka on February 17th, the much-needed shells are beginning to arrive to the Ukrainian army, which is repelling Russian attacks in many places. The war remains at a stalemate.
In this article, I would like to take a look at the future outlook for this war based on the opinions of experts who have actually visited Ukraine many times and inspected the front lines.
Specifically, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, senior fellows at the Royal Defense and Security Institute (RUSI), Michael Coffman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Foundation, and Tatarigami, a former Ukrainian military officer. It is.
RUSSIANThe views of Jack Watling et al.
RUSI’s Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds said:Russia’s military goals and capabilities looking ahead to 2024In his essay, he points out the following:
・Russia’s military strength is likely to reach its peak in the second half of 2024, and physical challenges will increase into 2025.
– Russia is unlikely to gain much in 2025 if Ukraine’s backers, such as the United States, continue to provide enough ammunition and training to blunt a Russian attack in 2024.
However, without sufficient support from the United States and others, Russia could maintain a steady tempo of attacks through 2024.
Russia still maintains its strategic goal of conquering Ukraine by 2026.
However, if Russia is unable to improve the quality of its forces for offensive operations and thus achieve significant gains in 2025, it will struggle to bring Zelenskiy’s government to its knees by 2026.
After 2026, Russia’s combat power will begin to decline significantly due to system wear and tear, at which point Russia’s industry may be destroyed.
The Russian military began 2023 in Ukraine with a highly disorganized force of approximately 360,000 troops.
By the time the attack on Ukraine began in June 2023, this force had grown to 410,000 soldiers and was well organized.
In the summer of 2023, Russia set up training regiments along its borders and in occupied territories, striving to standardize its troops in response to Wagner’s rebellion and breaking away from the previous trend toward private militaryization.
By early 2024, the operational group of the Russian army in the occupied territories consisted of 470,000 troops.
・While there are currently no large-scale offensives underway, Russian military units are tasked with at least conducting small-scale tactical attacks that inflict steady damage on Ukraine and allow Russian forces to secure and hold positions. It is said that
The Kremlin believes it can maintain current attrition rates until 2025, although Russia’s aspirations to expand to 1.5 million troops have not materialized.
Russia has significantly expanded its defense industry, increasing shifts and expanding production lines in existing facilities, as well as restarting previously idle factories.
As a result, Russia annually delivers approximately 1,500 tanks and 3,000 various types of armored fighting vehicles to the military. Russian missile production is increasing as well.
・Russia faces major limitations in its industrial production.
For example, approximately 80% of tanks and other armored fighting vehicles are not new production, but rather refurbished and modernized from Russia’s wartime inventory.
-Russia could maintain consistent production through 2024, but by 2025 it would begin to see that its vehicles needed more major modifications, and by 2026 it would have used up most of its available inventory.
Another vulnerability of complex weapons such as missiles is their heavy dependence on parts procured by Western countries.
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2024-03-31 21:00:00
