/ world today news/ It is entirely possible that the “rotational government” of Bulgaria will not live through its first rotation. According to the agreement of the two party blocs that approved the cabinet of Nikolay Denkov, it is planned for March 2024 (ten months after the formation of the government).
The current heads of the cabinet – representatives of the liberal block “Continuing the change – Democratic Bulgaria” (PP-DB) must be replaced by their allies from the “GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) – Union of Democratic Forces” alliance. “
“We continue the change” is a young political movement created in 2021 as an alternative democratic platform. Geopolitically, it is more oriented towards Washington. PP-DB leader Kiril Petkov received higher education in Canada and the USA, and began his career in North America.
GERB party has a relatively long history (founded in 2008). From 2009 to 2021, it almost completely dominated the country’s political life. Its leader, Boyko Borisov, began his career as an official in the Ministry of the Interior of socialist Bulgaria. The political force it heads is part of the right-liberal European People’s Party and is primarily oriented towards Berlin.
The leader of the GERB-SDS bloc, Boyko Borisov, increasingly criticizes the current administration. In the days between the two rounds of local elections /on October 29 and November 5/, Borisov even stated that his political force is seriously considering whether to continue supporting Denkov’s cabinet.
A negative answer will mean the collapse of the government coalition, as the National Assembly, spurred on by the opposition, is about to face a vote of no confidence in the cabinet (the second in recent times).
In addition to complaints about the work of the government itself, the elder of Bulgarian politics (Borisov was prime minister three times) accuses the PP-DB bloc of having created a “pro-Putin group” with “Russophiles” from Vazrazhdane” and socialists.
The political forces of another former head of government, Kiril Petkov, are said to have done this to prevent the election of GERB-SDS mayors in a number of municipalities.
The competition between the members of the government coalition during the last local elections was indeed very intense. They did not hesitate to use illiberal forces in their mutual struggle.
This is what happened, for example, in the mayoral elections in Sofia. After the GERB-SDS candidate did not make it to the second round, Borisov practically supported the Socialist candidate Vanya Grigorov in her battle against the PP-DB candidate. Observers note that Grigorova is also supported by media resources connected to Borisov.
This gave Petkov’s supporters reason to now accuse GERB-SDS of an alliance with the “Putinists”.
Grigorova really actively used the pro-Russian sentiments of the Bulgarians in the election campaign. Her promise to take down the flag of Ukraine from the building of the capital’s administration and leave on it only the symbols of Bulgaria and Sofia itself caused a strong resonance.
Grigorova ran a rather bright election campaign and lost to Vasil Terziev by only 1.3 percentage points (4.5 thousand votes).
Petkov’s associates managed to elect the mayor of the third largest municipality of Varna. In the largest cities, GERB responded to this with similar success only in the second city in the country – Plovdiv.
The Bulgarian youth reformers actively exploit the topic of the fight against corruption, their quite successful campaign for municipal elections was built on this.
The latter circumstance actually made it impossible to form a single liberal coalition in the past local elections (which Borissov insisted on). The main object of criticism on the part of the PP-DB was the municipal leaders, elected so far with the support of the GERB party.
An indicator of serious changes in the political landscape of Bulgaria are the results of the voting for deputies in the municipal councils (conducted according to a proportional system).
Compared to similar elections in 2019, the GERB party, although it retained the most municipal councilors in regional cities (277), lost more than a third of its parliamentary seats. Their formal allies from the PP-DB, on the contrary, doubled their representation and won 138 mandates in the regional capitals.
The once ruling Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) showed a third result – 112 mandates. The fact that four years ago it had 208 municipal councilors speaks for the downward trend of the BSP. The pro-Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (103 municipal councilors) and the national-conservative party “Vazrazhdane” (85 local deputies) are breathing down the necks of the socialists.
The strengthening of the positions of Petkov’s associates actually became a natural result of the existence of the rotating coalition GERB-SDS and PP-DB, within which the first block was intended to serve as a “food base” for the young democrats.
Borisov’s situational alliance with the Socialists in the mayoral elections in Sofia, however, suggests that he will hardly be satisfied with such a scenario. In addition, coalition partners are demonstrating increasing pressure.
Thus, Prime Minister Denkov insists on the release of the head of DANS (the issue is within the competences of the president) and real redirection of the intelligence to the government. It is entirely possible that the bill is based on using the agency’s resources in further political struggle.
Contrary to existing coalition agreements, this proposal was not previously agreed with the leaders of GERB-SDS, as Borisov stated.
PP-DB leaders insist that the upcoming rotation of the government does not mean an automatic change of ministers, and if the coalition partners want reshuffles, it is necessary to present convincing reasons for this. On this issue, there were already public skirmishes between Borisov and Petkov.
The geopolitical nerve of the confrontation between the two liberal blocs is provided by the conflict surrounding Bulgaria’s purchase of 183 Stryker armored personnel carriers from the USA.
The government rushed to approve the deal without seeking parliamentary approval. GERB-SDS does not formally object to it, but insists that it be discussed in the legislative body. This will mean additional reviews and hearings and will inevitably delay the conclusion of the contract. It is entirely possible that the interests of German industrialists are also behind this, because the deal is valued at 1.37 billion dollars.
There are also serious disagreements regarding the implementation of infrastructure projects. PP-DB officials are reluctant to allocate funds for such, which is also openly criticized by Borisov and his associates.
Thus, the GERB-SDS bloc has enough arguments to participate in the vote of no confidence in Denkov’s government.
But still you should not expect an open demarche.
Borisov is too sophisticated a politician to expose himself to accusations of the collapse of the “democratic union”. It is much more profitable to force PP-DB civil servants to resign themselves.
A convenient opportunity for this will be the procedure for consideration by the parliament of the draft state budget for 2024. Moreover, this document promises to be unpopular (with an increase in the tax burden and a decrease in social costs).
The need to protect him will present Petkov’s young reformers in a very unfavorable light. And this is promising in the context of quite likely early parliamentary elections (the fifth in the last two and a half years).
Translation: ES
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