Russia Tensions Escalate: Fears of Long-Range Conflict Grow

The change in Russia’s nuclear doctrine is to include a wider range of options than reality. And it is one more step in the climb. At this time when the American Republicans win the presidential elections, Joe Biden is freed from several electoral ties and makes several decisions regarding the crisis with Russia.

On the one hand came the decision to allow the Ukrainians to use long-range weapons. And the Europeans followed the path indicated from Washington. This practice was immediately visible on Russian territory, apparently aimed at military objectives. On the other hand, Biden raised the practical ban on US contractors being able to repair weapons on the ground in Ukraine.

In addition, by coincidence, we found the call from the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. A new diplomatic problem, if the intention was to reduce the crisis since it coincided with the publication of Bild about the possible transport of thousands of kamikaze drones from Germany to Ukraine. After a tense few days over questions about what Moscow’s new nuclear doctrine really meant, Russia acted.

The chance that Russia would use nuclear weapons against Ukraine or, as has been said, even against European capitals, was very small.

The chance that Russia would use nuclear weapons against Ukraine or, as has been said, even against European capitals, was very small. Because what Moscow needed was not to unleash a global nuclear conflict but to regain the deterrent point it had lost by constantly crossing its red lines . And to reach that level of inhibition, there would be another definite jump in the increase.

Western embassies in kyiv began to warn of a possible high-impact attack, which later appeared as a psychological operation. But eventually an attack happened. This time it would be a missile launched in Dnipropetrovsk, the Oreshnik. It was a new type of hypersonic missile but, contrary to what Ukraine pointed out, it was not an ICBM, that is, its range was not intercontinental, but an area between -medium (IRBM).

In any case, while the use of hypersonic weapons was no longer new, the use of such high-range weapons or those capable of carrying nuclear warheads would be new. There was no need to use an intercontinental ballistic missile to show what was being sought, that Russia could use a weapon with the ability to introduce nuclear elements.

Vladimir Putin came out to speak and not only acknowledged what had happened but deepened his effort to identify a new blocking point. The threat of using nuclear weapons, due to the reality of their use, is considered another Russian bluff by European capitals. This is what Paris, for example, is defined. And they may be right. But pushing the envelope to this point makes actors more nervous.

Mr. Biden’s authorization to plant anti-personnel mines was also known

At the same time that Ukrainian attacks with long-range weapons were reported in the Russian border regions of Kursk and Bryansk, Biden was allowed to plant anti-personnel mines, one of the biggest elements of it was condemned of the international arsenal and banned. knowledge also for more than a hundred countries.

Despite this, Russia informed the United States about the use of the Oreshnik through its channels to reduce the nuclear threat, but Russia still ensures that it will respond strongly to the use of long-range weapons. Ukrainian territory in all attacks against internationally recognized territory. This means, as I said, that Russia did not intend to escalate the war directly against the West, but rather to mark a new deterrent.

It must also be recognized that the growing support in Paris for the line of eastern countries, indicating that there are no red lines, and referring to the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine, is further proof that he intends to continue testing reality and resistance. those red lines. It is possible that Russia will once again show the fragility of its borders and that the rise will continue along other paths.

And while all this was happening, it is impossible to ignore another aspect of history that could affect the European economy again. The new payments of sanctions must be dealt with in order to put pressure through financial means. Russia had to stop buying foreign currency until the end of the year because of the new fall of the ruble in the last few days. The Russian currency has not seen such a depreciation since the crisis at the beginning of 2022.

The Central Bank of Russia is therefore trying to reduce market volatility and stabilize its currency. Which suggests that the sanctions against banks have an effect in the intermediary system for avoiding sanctions. That is, Gazprombank and other organizations were used until now to continue trading through intermediaries.

In the last week of November, the United Kingdom also announced sanctions against Russia’s “ghost fleet”, that is, against ships that carried billions of dollars in oil and oil products. The damage to the power of power and part of the income of the civilian economy is different from the power that the military industry achieves.

And it is not only the heavy weight in the economy that military spending, military industrial production or the size of the army achieves, but also the calling itself. Putin has just signed a law that allows debt forgiveness of up to one hundred thousand dollars for those who fight to fight in Ukraine.

However, overheating of the military-industrial complex also often involves an impact on the future political life of the country in terms of certainty in its environment and at the global level, which would lead to​​​​ -eventually, in the context of an unresolved conflict, to further escalations. in this acting theater or another. There is no doubt that this is a proxy war, subsidized by the West, against Russia; as Boris Johnson has recognized after being labeled for years as a Russian propagandist.