Ukrainian armed forces have reported intensified fighting in the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, which together form the Donbas region, in recent days. In particular, around the towns of Severodonetsk and Lischansk in Luhansk, positions of Ukrainian troops are being shelled with Russian artillery.
According to former army commander Mart de Kruif, the revival of fighting in the Donbas region is a direct result of the fall of Mariupol. “Russia now has extra troops available. They are being deployed in Donetsk and Luhansk. But the advance is painfully slow.”
Rearm or negotiate
The fighting is accompanied by heavy losses on both sides, says De Kruif. “The Ukrainians knew they were coming and dug in. It’s hard against hard. Trench warfare. Ukrainians are also launching counter-attacks. It really remains to be seen whether the Russians can take the area – and then keep it occupied .”
If victory for the Russians is not long in coming, sooner or later they will have to make a choice, says the former commander: “This battle eats up people and equipment. There comes a time when they have to rearm for a new offensive or negotiate. “
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For the Ukrainians, the question is whether they can hold back the Russians for long. The long term comes down to manpower, willpower and financial resources. “This intensive phase is unsustainable. For none of the parties, but especially not for Ukraine. Hundreds of soldiers are killed every day.”
Objectives adjusted
Defense specialist and professor of war studies Frans Osinga finds it striking that Russia keeps adjusting its objectives. “They are forced to do that by the opposition. At first they wanted to take all of Ukraine. Then they looked to the east, but that is not very successful either. Now it is Mariupol and the Donbas.”
The Russians, Osinga says, are licking their wounds. “Instead of gathering a large force and planning a large offensive, they always carry out small-scale attacks. Ukrainian troops were always able to neutralize them. But the Russians continue to exert pressure. With rocket attacks and remote artillery shelling, for example.”
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Putin’s exact goals are becoming increasingly unclear, Osinga says. “He seems to want to make some profit to make up for all the losses. The Donbas is an area that Russia could conquer. The supply lines are short here. Putin would control the major ports of Ukraine, except for Odessa. put that country in an economic stranglehold.”
Expelling Russians from Donbas
If that happens, Russia could turn it into a long, less intense war, Osinga said. “Then Russia can restore its armed forces. Then Putin can aim for a truce – which could take years before he goes back to war. There is no reason for Ukraine to accept such a truce, because then the threat of a new lingers endlessly over your head.”
“Above all, there has been an awful lot of suffering among the Ukrainian population,” he continues. “Think of Butsha. 500 billion euros in damage has been caused to the infrastructure. Making concessions to Putin is therefore unacceptable for the time being.”
War can tip over
The professor also does not rule out the possibility that Ukraine will settle the battle in its favor. “They are achieving military successes. The war could just turn in Ukraine’s favour. If we are to believe the assessment of the Ukrainian intelligence service. If they get the chance, they will also want to drive the Russians out of the Donbas. Zelensky has that too.” In the fall, the battle may then be over, although there are still many uncertainties.”
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