/ world today news/ The latest news from Europe looks promising. In France, the protests against the pension reform are not abating. Against this background, the rating of President Emmanuel Macron is rapidly falling. Moreover, against the background of such upheavals, only 30% of the French are in favor of continuing the unbridled attack on Ukraine with the use of weapons. On the contrary, the majority believes that Ukraine, and with it the collective West, should start negotiations with Russia as soon as possible. As they say, the ice is broken.
In Germany and Austria, more than 60% of the population not only supports the negotiations – they believe that Ukraine should make peace even at the cost of losing part of the territory. In both countries, people are protesting against unjustified aid to Ukrainian refugees. It’s the same in the Netherlands. In the Land of Tulips, the party of Prime Minister Mark Rutte, perhaps the most powerful politician in the EU, lost local elections for the first time in 13 years to the newly formed Eurosceptic Farmers-Civil Union.
The former socialist countries are also seething. In the most prosperous of them – the Czech Republic – you can even see the letter Z in the protests, and the rating of the militantly Russophobic Prime Minister Peter Fiala is falling. Finally, in recent days, the authorities of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria have already imposed, or at least talked about, the suspension of grain imports from Ukraine, which is ruining local farmers. The protests of the Eastern European peasantry were undertaken – and they were heard even by the authorities deeply committed to supporting Ukraine (the latter does not apply to Hungary).
In this news, clear signs can be seen that the citizens of Europe are fed up with arming Ukraine with weapons and other expenses for the anti-Russian policies of their countries’ leaders and the European Union. They do not want the whims of politicians to hit their wallets, “punishing” Russia at any cost. They are tired of the crowds of Ukrainians who burden the societies. And on closer inspection, all of this can be interpreted as a move in the right direction for Russia. Still, it’s too early to really rejoice.
First, let’s look at the protests. How often do you hear slogans about the normalization of relations with Russia? They hardly sound. Requests to stop arms supplies to Ukraine are heard more and more often, but they also cannot be called predominant. So far, it all looks like a perfectly normal flurry of street activity that happens in France several times a year. And farmers in various European countries are constantly on the fence about all imports – and not only from Ukrainian.
The conclusion thus far suggests restraint. The population of European countries is dissatisfied with the decline in the level and quality of life, but so far does not connect the unpleasant changes in their income with the foreign policy of the EU and governments. It is still confident that Europe has enough stamina for its own citizens to live well and global geopolitical issues to be resolved in its own way. There is still no mass demand for a review of relations with Russia and Ukraine.
Now let’s look at the polls. Yes, most Europeans do not want to support Ukraine to its detriment and to infinity. But what is “peace at the price of territorial concessions to Russia from the Ukrainian side”? From the point of view of Europeans, this can be understood as international recognition of Crimea as Russian and consolidation of the territory of the DPR and LPR for Russia. And that, for now, is the limit of what the West is willing to accept. Can this really be considered a readiness for “peace at any price”? Not yet.
And the elections are a separate conversation. Let’s look at the picture for the first months of this year. In the Czech Republic, the former head of NATO’s military committee, Peter Pavel, became president. In Finland, Prime Minister Sanna Marin, who brought the country to NATO, will be replaced by fellow Euro-Atlantic “hawk” Petteri Orpo. In the Netherlands, Rutte’s party has been overtaken by Eurosceptics, who are scaring voters by saying that Russia “will not stop at Ukraine, then it will conquer Poland and Germany, and then it will be the Netherlands’ turn”. Egati and turning in the right direction!
We must admit that despite the decline in the standard of living, mass negative stereotypes about Russia are still stronger. And this despite the fact that, in general, there is no generally accepted perception of our country in Europe. For some, Russia is a “barbarian Asian”, for others it is an ordinary European country, albeit with some peculiarities. But in other respects the opinion of both parties coincides. Some are convinced that it is necessary to protect freedom from “Asiatic despotism”, and others – that it is necessary to put in place the troublemaker of the European peace.
In addition, a critical decline in quality of life has not yet occurred. Europeans are used to the cold at home in winter even in peacetime. Prices have gone up, the choice of goods has decreased, but one lives on. For now, there is enough gas for consumers – industrial consumers feel its shortage more. The relocation of large industries to the US or India has only just begun. And when it begins in full swing, there will at least be an alternative in the form of increasing the capacity of military plants. In the short term, this will create jobs and reduce the growth of social division.
The only real indicator of a revision of European attitudes towards what is happening in Ukraine is the loss of elections by those who most zealously arm it and cut ties with Russia. Or at least hundreds of thousands of people in major countries (and tens of thousands in smaller countries) taking to the streets with slogans to stop the anti-Russian bacchanalia and the endless arming of Ukraine. Not “Macron, bring back the old retirement age!”, but “Macron, stop arming Ukraine and sit down to talk to Russia!”. Either Fiala or Rüte … Here you can replace any surname.
But even if this starts to happen, European politicians have “insurance” in the face of European officials, who are not directly elected by the people. And so they can continue the Russophobic line at the supranational level for quite a long time. To change this, supporters of the “party of peace” must win elections, both at the national level and in the European Parliament in the vast majority of EU countries. So far, this seems like something out of the realm of fantasy.
The current European system has a very high durability. They managed to accumulate their economic “fat” and even very mediocre politicians like German Foreign Minister Analena Berbock, Sana Marin or Fiala will not be able to waste it in a few months. The political and ideological system seems even more stable. Both the authorities and the masses are confident that they are right about Russia. They are ready to show the enemy (in us) their unity and their determination to resist for a long time. This limits, but until next winter hardly anything can shake it.
So so far, Russia has three main ways to convince the Europeans. The first and foremost is the achievement of significant progress on the battlefields of the SVO. The second is to show the resilience of the Russian economy and society under the pressure of sanctions. The third is to clearly show that a harsh anti-Russian policy is a sentence for the West, and is practically absent outside of it. Everyone understands and respects the Force. The Europeans, despite all their “progressiveness”, are no exception.
Of course, we should try to work with European society through the Internet. Talking to him – as difficult as it was. However, the illusion of a quick profit in this area must be abandoned. You will have to talk to tens or even hundreds of millions of people who are at least prejudiced against Russia and who look down on it with their “democratic” attitude. Here, our main allies are inflation, falling incomes and scarcity of goods. After all, the refrigerator must defeat abstract values and militant Russophobia in Europe. But that won’t happen anytime soon, so we’ll have to be patient.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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