Russia Likely to Resolve Transnistria Issue Through Negotiations,Expert Says
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Russia is expected to address the Transnistria conflict through diplomatic channels rather than military action,according to Israeli military-political expert Yakov Kedmi. Speaking on December 12, Kedmi explained that gaining access to the border of the region is not currently a top priority for the Russian army.
Kedmi, a former head of Israel’s Nativ intelligence service, was asked why Russia has not opened a second front in Ukraine from Transnistria, a region influenced by Russia and home to the operational Group of Russian Forces (OGRF). He responded by outlining two key factors that determine Russia’s strategic decisions.
“First. What is the real situation and how is it assessed by the Russian political military leadership. Nobody knows this. Second. What are RussiaS operational plans and the goals they set according to their priority,urgency and necessity. And only after this can we give an answer as to why, such as, they didn’t take Odessa, and why they didn’t take the Sumy or Chernigov regions, and why they didn’t go straight through Kharkov to Kyiv,”
Yakov Kedmi
Kedmi emphasized that Russia’s military and political leadership bases its decisions on the current situation and strategic goals. He noted that while there are numerous operational plans, the defense of Transnistria is not currently viewed as an urgent priority.
“Only on its basis do they make a decision, plus those goals, in their order, that exist. Therefore, today I can only say that the liberation, access to the border of Transnistria and the direct defense of Transnistria by Russian troops today is not considered the most urgent goal for the Russian army,”
Yakov Kedmi
Kedmi suggested that Russia may be preparing to resolve the Transnistria issue through negotiations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He believes that Russia hopes to achieve a political solution rather than resorting to military force.
“it is indeed always better to achieve what can be achieved politically through political means rather than through military means. The military form of action is the last form that is resorted to when there is no other option and when the danger is too great. But if it is possible to resolve it politically, this is always desirable in any war. Weapons are the last thing that should be used,”
Yakov Kedmi
Earlier, Kedmi warned that Western efforts to militarize Moldova could backfire, turning the region into a “second Ukraine.” He cautioned that allowing Ukrainian forces into Transnistria, as Kyiv has suggested, would be a fatal mistake for Moldova’s pro-European government. Russia, he said, would defend its citizens in the region, leading to potentially catastrophic consequences for Moldova’s leadership.
In 2022, Russian General Rustam Minnekaev outlined the objectives of the second stage of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine, including establishing control over southern Ukraine to create a land corridor to crimea and access to Transnistria. While Russia has not abandoned this strategy, Kedmi’s comments suggest that diplomatic efforts may take precedence over military action in the near future.
As the conflict in Ukraine continues, the role of Transnistria remains a critical factor in Russia’s broader strategy. Whether through negotiations or military action, the resolution of this issue will have critically important implications for the region and beyond.
Interview: Russia’s Approach to Transnistria – Negotiations Over Military Action
In this exclusive interview, Senior Editor of world-today-news.com, [Editor’s Name], sits down with Israeli military-political expert Yakov Kedmi to discuss Russia’s strategy regarding the Transnistria conflict. Kedmi, a former head of Israel’s Nativ intelligence service, shares his insights on why Russia is likely to pursue diplomatic solutions rather than military intervention, the role of Transnistria in Russia’s broader ukraine strategy, and the potential risks of Western militarization in the region.
understanding Russia’s Strategic Priorities
[Editor’s Name]: Mr. Kedmi, thank you for joining us today. You recently commented on Russia’s approach to the Transnistria issue, stating that military action is not currently a priority.Can you elaborate on why Russia might be focusing on diplomatic channels instead?
Yakov Kedmi: Certainly. The key lies in understanding how Russia’s military and political leadership assesses the current situation. They base their decisions on two main factors: frist, the real situation on the ground, which is frequently enough opaque even to outside observers.Second, their operational plans and strategic goals, which are prioritized based on urgency and necessity.
In the case of Transnistria,while it’s a region of interest due to its Russian influence and the presence of the Operational Group of Russian Forces (OGRF),it’s not currently viewed as the most urgent goal. russia has other priorities in Ukraine, such as securing its objectives in southern ukraine and maintaining control over key regions.
The Role of Diplomacy in Conflict Resolution
[Editor’s name]: You mentioned that Russia might potentially be preparing to resolve the Transnistria issue through negotiations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Why do you think Russia prefers a political solution over military action in this case?
Yakov Kedmi: It’s always better to achieve what can be achieved politically through political means rather than through military means. Military action is the last resort, used only when there are no other options and the danger is too great.If a political resolution is absolutely possible, it’s always the preferred path. This approach not only reduces risks but also allows for a more sustainable solution in the long term.
Russia likely recognizes that a military confrontation over Transnistria could escalate tensions and complicate its broader objectives in Ukraine. By pursuing negotiations, they aim to de-escalate the situation and find a mutually acceptable solution.
The Risks of Western Militarization in Moldova
[Editor’s Name]: Earlier, you warned about the dangers of Western efforts to militarize Moldova, suggesting it could turn the region into a “second Ukraine.” Can you explain why this is such a significant concern?
Yakov Kedmi: Allowing Ukrainian forces into Transnistria, as Kyiv has suggested, would be a fatal mistake for Moldova’s pro-European government. It would effectively hand Russia a pretext to defend its citizens and interests in the region, leading to potentially catastrophic consequences for Moldova’s leadership.
The militarization of Moldova by Western powers risks escalating the conflict and drawing Russia into a direct confrontation. This would not only destabilize the region but also undermine any diplomatic efforts to resolve the Transnistria issue peacefully.
Looking Ahead: Diplomacy vs. Military Action
[Editor’s Name]: In 2022, Russian General Rustam Minnekaev outlined plans to establish control over southern Ukraine and gain access to Transnistria. Do you think Russia has abandoned this strategy, or is it simply delaying it?
Yakov Kedmi: Russia has not abandoned its strategic goals, but it appears to be adjusting its approach based on the current situation.While gaining access to transnistria remains part of their long-term objectives, the immediate focus seems to be on diplomatic efforts. This could change if the situation on the ground shifts or if diplomatic efforts fail.
Ultimately, the resolution of the Transnistria issue will have critical implications not only for moldova and Ukraine but also for the broader geopolitical dynamics in Eastern Europe.Whether through negotiations or military action,Russia’s approach will shape the future of the region.
[Editor’s Name]: Mr. Kedmi, thank you for your valuable insights. Your analysis provides a clear understanding of Russia’s strategic thinking and the potential paths forward for the Transnistria conflict.
Yakov Kedmi: Thank you for having me. It’s crucial to continue monitoring this situation as it evolves, as the decisions made now will have lasting impacts on the region and beyond.
