/ world today news/ The suspension of the South Stream project took place at the will of Vladimir Putin. There is one simple rule: the solution to the problem can only arise in the environment in which it was created. After the Russian president created the problem, he can solve it. Putin’s message is good, it means that he has overcome his ego as a result of the events that are happening recently in the world and in the region. The processes in Donetsk and Luhansk have stalled.
The global recession and the drop in oil prices severely damaged the financial condition of Gazprom and Russia as a whole. If “Turkish Stream” was envisaged in a way: “We will make an alternative to “South Stream” stubbornly regardless of the price”, it clearly no longer corresponds to the original intention. Whatever may be said, the realization of “South Stream” in the ideal version is not the result of any sentiments about Bulgarian-Soviet friendship. The route of the gas pipeline through Bulgaria is economically the most expedient from a financial and technological point of view. It seems that the expertise on it has already reached Putin himself.
His statement is indicative and means that he is inclined to return to implementing some variant of South Stream. It will certainly not be in its full volume – one of the four pipes, which has a capacity of 15.75 billion cubic meters of gas, is economically more profitable to reach the European coast of Turkey and not deal with transit through Ukraine , Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. But the remaining three pipes can easily pass through Bulgarian territory. And then Prime Minister Boyko Borisov’s idea for a gas hub could be implemented. Because without Russian gas at this stage and own production, the hub in perspective is just a wishful thinking. If a decision is made to resume South Stream, however, there will be no problem. The entire route on our territory is certified – there are PUPs and EIA, the easements through which it will pass have been paid. While nothing has been prepared for the Turkish Stream route through Turkey and Greece.
Recently, Gazprom announced an auction for the free capacities of the OPAL gas pipeline /the land part of the Nord Stream/ according to the liberalization package. Russia seems to be gradually understanding the need to adhere to the requirements of the EU’s Third Energy Package. This is a very serious signal that the Kremlin accepts, albeit in a milder form, Europe’s demands. As for Turkish Stream, there are many problems there.
The embargo on the supply of Iranian gas and oil falls. In just a few years, Iran will enter the market with 35 billion cubic meters per year. Unlike Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, Iranians have access to sea transportation, meaning they don’t need pipelines. Tehran could become a major player in the liquefied gas market. They previously divided this 35 billion into two asymmetric portions – 15 billion will go to the liquefied fuel market. The remaining 20 billion cubic meters will lead to TANAP and along the southern gas corridor they will reach Europe in 4-5 years. For this reason, “Turkish Stream” is becoming a competition of Iranian gas.
Therefore, it is more profitable for Putin to return to the original version of “South Stream”.
Putin’s general message to Bulgaria, but also indirectly to Europe, reads: “Guys, let’s live together”. It became clear that Putin’s confrontational model was not working in his favor. Europe is also suffering. Any confrontation produced worse results than bad agreements. Or as the saying goes, a bad peace is better than the best war.
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