Russia is now advancing at a furious pace – a very difficult scenario for Ukraine may soon become a reality – 2024-08-30 09:19:24

The Ukrainian attack on Kursk has almost exclusively dominated the information space in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the war in eastern Ukraine has taken a worrying turn.

Russia is attacking in eastern Ukraine with two focal points, Pokrovsky and Toretsk. In recent weeks, it has managed to advance in both areas, but especially in the vicinity of Pokrovski, the situation even shows signs of a crisis.

Pokrovsk is a medium-sized city of about 60,000 inhabitants in eastern Ukraine, Donetsk Oblast. The city serving as a logistics center is located at the crossroads of train and road connections. It has been possible to serve several frontline blocks from there practically throughout the war, and it has been possible to place many types of maintenance and command units there.

Russia is now seriously threatening the city, being only about ten kilometers away. Some of the road connections have already had to be taken out of use, and the evacuation of civilians has had to begin. The closer Russia gets with its cannons and drones, the more challenging the situation in the city becomes for the operations of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, which has almost grown up to it, form a whole of more than 100,000 inhabitants. In addition, several small towns and villages are located nearby, so at least 150,000 civilians are directly affected by the fighting in the Pokrovskiy direction. In addition to military problems, the Russian attack will also cause a wave of refugees within the country.

The roots of the current situation lie in the loss of the town of Avdijivka in the spring winter of 2024. After two years of struggle, Russia was able to squeeze the Ukrainians out of the city, and the attack was immediately continued to the north and west. During the spring, Russia reached Otseretyne, from where during the summer it has continued along the railway line towards the west.

The attack, which initially progressed with a narrow tip, has expanded menacingly during the summer and especially in August.

Currently, villages are falling almost every day. An example of the alarming nature of the situation is Novohrodivka – a city of around 12,000 inhabitants surrounded by armored trenches ended up in the hands of the Russians in less than a week. In the past, similar small towns may have been twisted for several months, even years.

As an additional note, while Russia’s progress has often required even entire cities to be ground into construction waste, it is now taking over population centers in significantly better condition.

Ukrainian fortifications have failed to stop the invader. At the moment, Russia is trying to penetrate the so-called main defense balance defending Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Behind it, a new trench and an armored barrier are created full of carbon monoxide, but without sufficient manning and fire support, even the best defense line cannot withstand constant pressure.

The situation may seem confusing, because in the last few weeks, the public has mostly talked about Ukraine’s victories in Kursk.

According to Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, one of the central objectives of Kursk was precisely related to Russia withdrawing its troops from Ukraine, especially from the Pokrovsky region.

At the moment, however, it seems that the goal has not been reached. Of course, Russia has also had to move its troops from Ukraine, but in the most important directions its progress has mostly accelerated. Russia has not progressed at a similar pace since the summer of 2022.

The reasons for this are of course not clear, but it is doctrinal for Russia to support success, not defeat. Even though in this war, Russia has strengthened its achievements even in defeat, it seems that the focus is now specifically on supporting success.

There is currently nothing happening in Kursk that would actually threaten the Russian state. From Russia’s point of view, the battle is still taking place in the border area. The Ukrainian offensive is wanted to be stopped, but extensive counterattacks are not a priority. Instead, the stakes are placed on Donetsk.

The Kursk operation, which has been stalled for the past week, is still tying up a significant number of troops from Ukraine, which would also be needed elsewhere. This is of course a conscious choice by the leadership of the armed forces and the state, but even if there are plans for follow-up operations in relation to Kursk, the opportunity cost keeps getting bigger.

Many have derided Russia’s relatively slow pace compared to Ukraine’s surprising ability to conquer large areas quickly. Although Kursk looks nice on the map compared to Pokrovsk, comparing the time spent and square kilometers is not very meaningful in this case. Achievements are based on different things.

In Kursk, Ukraine was allowed to attack an enemy that was significantly weaker in terms of quality and readiness. The place and time had been chosen successfully and the attack showed skill, but the initial rapid progress slowed down when the Russian auxiliary forces arrived.

In the Pokrovsky region, Russia is not fighting against surprised border troops and conscripts, but instead is facing Ukrainian brigades dug into their positions. After a slow and exhausting trudge, the activity has sped up substantially.

Russia knows that the conditions for quick maneuvers have been few in Donetsk. It has been more important to wear down the enemy to the point where the defending forces can be weakened towards an increasingly critical state. Many things indicate that the situation is no longer completely under the defender’s control.

Ukraine’s task is no longer to contain only the progress of the narrow tip, but it has to take care of the growing bulge with a dwindling number of men. In the worst case scenario, a worn-out defender has to give up his positions gradually, until suddenly the defensive ability in a certain block can betray the operational ability more radically.

There are claims about troop transfers or at least rotations, but it still does not show as an improvement in the situation on the battlefield. A counterattack to break the bulge is also a challenging task, as it is about 16 kilometers wide even at its narrowest point. Russia’s months-long war of attrition in the Donetsk region is showing even more serious signs of success.

Bottomless is certainly not a Russian lair either. The advance has been costly for it, and it loses considerable amounts of equipment and men every day. It is not at all certain whether Russian forces will be sufficient to capture Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, the most central cities in the area of ​​operation. It is possible that Russia may still drift into a long and exhausting battle for them, as in Bahmut last year.

However, it is likely that the Russian military command has stated that even a little more meaningful progress in Donetsk has been so under the rock that losses can now be tolerated when there is a possibility of even some kind of partial victories.

Ukraine has no choice but to continue wearing down the enemy as best it can. Pokrovski also has the ingredients for a wider crisis, if the Ukrainian leadership does not have the ability to resolve the situation in the near future. In addition, there is another new threat scenario on the horizon if things go really badly.

If Russia manages to get behind Pokrovsky, up to the border of Donetsk oblast, the administrative area will change from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk. If Russia is allowed to secede from that country as well, the worst thing can be that it will once again come up with its unilateral, illegal decision to add completely new administrative regions of Ukraine to its federation.

That would be one more headache, in addition to the previous ones.