Russia continues to advance in eastern Ukraine. But the pace is not fast. And the price is high. Russia has to accept many victims. The major war goal for this year will most likely not be achieved.
Now that the excitement over Ukraine’s invasion of Russia in Kursk two months ago has died down, the dominant narrative has reasserted itself. Ukrainian forces are retreating in the face of steady, if costly, Russian advances across the front line in Donbass, reflecting Russia’s vast superiority in troop numbers and firepower.
Ukraine’s decision last week to withdraw its forces from Vuhledar, a staunchly defended bastion at the interface between the eastern and southern fronts, has further worsened the country’s grim outlook.
The retreat was ordered to prevent encirclement by the Russians. President Volodymyr Zelensky praised the decision and said protecting the lives of soldiers who performed “heroic service” was “more important than any buildings.” Not that there are many buildings left. Wuhledar, like other cities captured by Russia, is a sprawling, shattered ruin.
A similar situation appears to be unfolding to the north in Toretsk, a front-line town that Russian forces have been advancing on village by village since August, pulverizing everything in their path with glide bombs.
On October 8, a spokeswoman for the Ukrainian armed forces in the city reported: “The fighting is taking place in Toretsk itself, the situation is unstable, literally every access is being fought for.”
Although Vuhledar did not have much strategic importance, Toretsk, located on a hill, could be used to block Ukrainian supply routes behind the lines.
The pace of the Russian advance has noticeably slowed
On the other hand, Russia has not made much progress in taking Chasiv Yar, about 40 kilometers north of Toretsk, and appears to be stuck along the canal on the eastern side of the city.
Russia is also encountering major difficulties in trying to take control of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub located on a triangle of road and rail links and at the heart of Russia’s offensive efforts.
Does Russia lack the troop strength for a targeted attack?
In August there was a lot of talk about the impending fall of Pokrovsk. But the pace of the Russian advance has slowed noticeably, and few areas have been captured in the last three weeks.
Nico Lange, a former chief of staff at the German Defense Ministry who has close ties to the Ukrainians, says that while Russian troops are now within artillery range of the city, they lack the strength for a concerted attack.
While the capture of Pokrovsk would provide Russia with a base for attacks into central Ukraine and worsen Ukraine’s logistical situation in southern Donbass, Lange believes that even if successful, the operation would take many months and inflict extremely high casualties on the Russians.
How long can Russia continue to lose more than 1,000 men a day?
Despite fears expressed in some quarters of Ukraine’s collapse, there are no signs of this happening. Ukraine is trying to make up some ground while inflicting as many casualties and equipment losses on Russia as possible and maintaining its own forces to fight from newly fortified lines.
It is also questionable how long Russia can continue to lose more than 1,000 men per day, despite the huge recruitment bonuses for new recruits.
The seemingly inexhaustible stock of mostly Soviet-era armored vehicles and tanks it could draw on could run out by next year.
There are signs that Russia’s advantage in artillery is diminishing
The Institute for the Study of War in Washington estimates that Russia lost at least five divisions of tanks and armored vehicles in the Pokrovsk region alone last year.
Without adequate armor, dismounted Russian soldiers are easy prey for increasingly powerful Ukrainian FPV drones.
Ukraine receives more grenades from allies, own production accelerates
There are also signs that Russia’s advantage in artillery is diminishing, even as it increasingly relies on unreliable North Korean ammunition.
At the beginning of the year, Russia fired ten times as many shells as the Ukrainians. According to Ukrainian sources, the gap has now narrowed to 2.5:1.
Ukraine is receiving more shells from its allies, its own production has accelerated, and attacks on Russian ammunition depots have been both effective and spectacular.
However, Ukraine, which remains banned from using long-range Western missiles against targets in Russia, has no answer to the deadly glide bombs launched from aircraft from Russian airspace that have become its opponent’s most powerful weapon on the battlefield.
Russia is far from achieving its 2024 war goal
Despite current despondency over Ukraine’s prospects, Russia is far from achieving its main goal: gaining control of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, which together make up the Donbas region, by the end of this year.
And while the goal was to drive Ukrainian forces out of Kursk by early this month, it now looks like that will take much longer and require much larger forces than Moscow has been able to muster so far.
The battle in which Russia is clearly successful, according to Lange, is taking place in the “information space”. The idea that Ukraine cannot win, in his view, becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and an excuse for Western leaders to deny Ukraine what it needs to win.
A pattern has emerged where promised military support arrives late or not at all. As US commentator Phillips O’Brien noted, US aid disbursed to Ukraine so far this year is well below the amount transferred in 2023.
