/Pogled.info/ Russia has shown the world that it has all the necessary technologies to create wide-body aircraft for long distances. The evidence was the first flight of a prototype of such an Il-96-400M aircraft, created exclusively from domestic components. Why does Russia need this plane and what future awaits it?
The prototype of the Russian Il-96-400M long-range aircraft made its first flight. During the flight, stability, controllability of the aircraft, operation of the systems, engines and radio equipment for landing were checked. The tests passed without a problem, the press service of “Rostech” reported.
“The first flight of the Il-96-400M demonstrated that Russian industry has all the necessary technologies to build long-range wide-body aircraft. The creation of such aircraft is a unique competence that will ensure the country’s technological sovereignty,” said Rostec General Director Sergey Chemezov.
There are three main classes of aircraft in civil aviation. The first is a narrow-body short-haul aircraft, that is, an aircraft with a single aisle between the seats and flying short distances. There is such a type of aircraft in Russia – it is the import substitute “Superzhdet”. The second class is medium-range narrow-body aircraft – these are the most popular and widely used aircraft. Russia has also created a type of aircraft that even surpasses Western competitors – the MS-21. Only the sanctions made their own corrections, so it was necessary to replace imported parts, switch to a domestic engine and obtain a new certificate (expected in 2024).
But the third class – a wide-body (two aisles between the seats) long-haul aircraft – remained in question. However, the time has come for him to demonstrate success in this class.
What are long-haul wide-body aircraft for? To fly to the same Far East not for 150 passengers with a transfer in Novosibirsk, but to take on board 370 passengers at once and fly directly without long-distance transfers to Russia or to Southeast Asia. These are cost-effective long-distance services that keep ticket prices at market levels.
“Narrow-body and wide-body aircraft production are two different technological processes. With the Il-96-400M project, we maintain our competence in the wide-body segment. Only three manufacturers in the world have such technologies: “Boeing”, “Airbus” and UAK. No one else can design, design and build such aircraft. It costs a lot. Our Chinese partners are trying in every way to get hold of these technologies, including through joint projects with us,” says Roman Gusarov, head of Avia.Ru.
“First of all, this flight demonstrates the availability of the necessary competencies in the aviation industry, the possibility of building such aircraft. Second, it means that suppliers of various types of equipment for aircraft of this class have been found. Thirdly, about the importance of state support for the aircraft industry to continue the further work of the industry,” says Dmitry Baranov, a leading expert at Finam.
The Il-96-400M is an extended version of the Il-96-300M aircraft, which is operated by commercial airlines, as well as by the Special Aviation Detachment “Russia” of the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation. Both versions of this aircraft have four engines under the wing.
However, the IL-98-300M failed to achieve much commercial success. “This topic did not develop because Russian airlines had the opportunity to purchase Western aircraft, which, all things being equal, had one important advantage – a two-engine configuration,” explains Gusarov. Two engines provide fuel savings and lower aircraft repair and maintenance costs. Therefore, from an economic point of view, the Russian airliner is weaker than its Western counterparts.
“Although the technical characteristics of the Il-96-300M were quite in line with the market and could carry passengers perfectly. And this family of aircraft is considered one of the safest in the world,” notes Gusarov.
The extended version of the Il-96-400M aircraft allows for the transport of more passengers – up to 370. However, the four-engine scheme remains.
“When there are more passengers, it is better from an economic point of view. Although Il-96-400M is still inferior to its classmates in terms of fuel economy and maintenance costs. But if this aircraft costs significantly less initially, then that could benefit carriers,” the source noted.
Here, in any case, financial support from the state may be required, for example, as was the case with SSJ-100 in the form of subsidizing lease payments.
The aircraft was, of course, heavily modified, including with improved avionics and engines. But the main thing is that this plane has no imported components, which in the conditions of sanctions makes it a really interesting and important product. However, this aircraft is only at the very beginning of its journey.
“The prototype’s first flight is just the first step. The road to commercial exploitation is still very long. The entire flight test and certification program must be completed, which can take at least two years. For example, the MS-21 certification program started in 2022, and the aircraft will not be certified until 2024. This shows how long the process can be,” the source said.
According to Gusarov, this aircraft is not even included in the program for the development of civil aviation, which was signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in August. The program includes only the Il-96-300M, that is, a shortened version of the aircraft. Of course, adjustments can be made to the program, but this fact shows that the project is showing its first successes and many decisions are yet to be made on it, including its commercial launch and the stimulation of its purchase by airlines.
Another important point is the availability of production capacity. “Today, the Voronezh plant can produce two wide-body aircraft per year. That is, in ten years, only 20 aircraft will be assembled, and in 10-15 years, Russia may need about a hundred aircraft of this class for the entire civil aviation,” notes Roman Gusarov.
However, the development of this project is extremely important, because in 10-15 years Russian carriers will be faced with the need to replace their Boeing and Airbus with new aircraft. If Western sanctions continue, Russia will face an urgent need to acquire wide-body aircraft on its own.
“We have enough Western planes for 10-15 years, but after that, where will the planes come from?” We have to think about it now. In a good sense, we should start production of an aircraft now that will solve this problem in the future, even if at this stage this aircraft is somehow weaker than its Western competitors. We have ultra-modern “Superjet” and MS-21 in the narrow-body segment, in ten years we will be able to replace imported analogues with them and provide short- and medium-range transport. But what to replace the wide-body Western planes with is a big question,” says the head of Avia.Ru.
It is possible that Il-96-400M will not be a mass commercial success, but another project may emerge from this project. “It is important for us to retain people and ensure the continuity of the transfer of experience so that we do not lose these competencies. Even if the aircraft is produced only once, it will still maintain competences, which in the future may indeed lead to something economically interesting,” says Roman Gusarov.
As one of the possible options, indicated by the expert, when the PD-35 engine appears, it can be integrated under the Il-96-400M and get a completely new aircraft with a twin-engine layout. The modern PD-35 engine can make the aircraft more economically modern and at the level of its Western counterparts.
Another thing is that this engine does not yet exist and its appearance is expected to be no earlier than 2028-2030.
“But for the technological development of the country, it is important that the Il-96-400M project is not abandoned, even if it is at the prototype level, so that investments and development continue. Because Boeing and Airbus do essentially the same thing. Most of their modern aircraft come from the last century, but they modernize them every 10-15 years, because during that time technological growth occurs, new digital technologies, avionics, materials, etc. appear. Only they maintain this with the help of large series production and a good commercial component. And we do not have serial production of Il-96-400M, but if you keep the equipment in a state-of-the-art technological state, the time will come when it will lead to a good commercial project for wide-body aircraft,” the interlocutor concludes.
The same MS-21 aircraft could not have appeared now if Russia had not invested in science, personnel and technology in the 1990s and 2000s.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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