/ world today news/ In six years, Russia plans to produce 600 civilian aircraft. And part of the money will be allocated from the National Welfare Fund. What planes should replace Boeing and Airbus, and are factories ready to ramp up aircraft production so dramatically?
The government approved a comprehensive program to expand the production of aircraft, engines, tools and components and authorized the use of funds from the National Welfare Fund to finance it. On a remunerative basis, it will be possible to attract more than 280 billion rubles for such purposes, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said at a meeting with deputy prime ministers on Monday.
The funds allocated by the fund will amount to almost a third of the total investments in the program, which will amount to 1 trillion rubles. Another 215.6 billion rubles will be allocated from the budget, 380.9 billion rubles – in the form of loans, 122.8 billion – funds from participants in the investment project.
The project envisages technical re-equipment of enterprises, increase of production capacity and carrying out development activities, including creation of new materials and a base of electronic components. The implementation of the project should ensure the production of more than 600 fully domestic aircraft by 2030, Mishustin added.
Last summer, the government approved a program to develop the air transport industry, where it was planned to deliver 1,036 new domestic aircraft by 2030. However, there is no talk of cutting the program. When they talk about more than 1,000 aircraft, this includes not only large aircraft such as MS-21, SSJ-100, but also small aircraft such as TVRS-44 Ladoga, L-410 and Baikal, plus civilian helicopters.
Mishustin spoke about 600 aircraft that should be produced by the enterprises of the United Aviation Corporation (UAC) by 2030. These are four types of aircraft: 270 MS-21 aircraft, 142 SSJ-100 aircraft, 115 Tu-214 aircraft and 70 aircraft IL-114-300.
It turns out that Russia should reach an average production of 100 aircraft per year. This is a serious challenge for modern Russia.
In the 2000s, no more than 20 aircraft were assembled in Russia per year. In 2010, there were certain years when volumes increased, for example in 2013 35 civil aircraft were assembled, but it was not possible to maintain this level for a long time. Such rates of production were possible only in the Soviet years – 100 and more aircraft per year.
How realistic are the plans to start production of 600 aircraft at the KLA plants within six years?
“Now we are talking about the government allocating money for mass production. This is a new stage. For the previous stage – certification of domestic aircraft – the money was already allocated last year and for this year, since the certification of MS-21 and SSJ-100 should be completed by the end of 2024. The stage of deployment of mass production requires a lot of funding and not for one year,” explains Roman Gusarov, head of the Avia.ru industrial port.
The import-substituted Superjet and MS-21 projects cause the least questions. “On the one hand, experimental import-substitution samples of the Superjet have already been assembled, and one of them is even equipped with a PD-8 engine. But permission to fly this engine has not yet been obtained, as the UAC has not yet completed the engine test program for certification. The first flight was expected to be in November, then in December 2023, but the dates were postponed. Now we are waiting for January-February. After completion of test flights and certification, it will become clear when mass production will begin,” says Gusarov.
There are no problems with the deployment of the serial production of the import-substitute “Superzhdet”. The plant has been operating for more than 10 years and will be able to quickly start production of 10-20 such aircraft per year, the expert believes.
In the case of the MS-21, there are no problems with the engine, it is already certified. The aircraft with native engines is already flying in test mode, and by the end of 2024 it is expected to complete the certification of the newest mainline aircraft with a Russian engine. According to the plan, the first six MS-21 will be transferred to Aeroflot for civilian operation at the end of this year. This is quite possible if the pre-production samples pass certification, says Gusarov.
In addition, it is planned to increase the volume of production of these aircraft every year – by one and a half to two times. In 2025, 12 aircraft should be produced, in 2026 – 22, in 2027 – 36, in 2028 – 50, in 2029 – 72, in 2030 – 72. Total: 260 MC The -21 will be produced over six years, and the plant should reach its steady production level of 72 aircraft per year.
“These plans for the MS-21 are also quite realistic, as well as the Superjet. The Irkutsk plant was modernized and took several years to prepare for mass production. The only thing is that there may be a change in terms, because testing a new aircraft is an unpredictable thing and something may have to be improved somewhere,” says Roman Gusarov.
But the implementation of plans for two other projects – Il-114-300 and Tu-214 – is questionable. The IL-114-300 is a regional turboprop passenger aircraft that can accommodate up to 68 passengers. Its advantage is that it can land and take off on unpaved runways, which is very important for the delivery of passengers in the Far East and Eastern Siberia, who are sometimes forced to fly to neighboring regions via Moscow. “Production of the IL-114-300 began at the plant in Lukhovtsi near Moscow. So far, everything has been limited to the creation of prototypes of aircraft that stand and do not pass tests. Questions arose about the engine, which was not completed and was not cleared to fly. The work is taking a long time and it is not clear when it will be finished. The moment here is very uncertain. In addition, investment will be required to scale production. The previous modification of the aircraft was produced in Tashkent, and the production was moved to the Moscow region,” explains Roman Gusarov.
But the Tu-214 aircraft project, which is actually an older competitor to the latest MC-21, seems the least likely from the point of view of implementation, says the head of “Avia.ru”.
On the one hand, this aircraft is already in mass production, and there is no doubt that it will continue to be produced. But the expert strongly doubts that it will be possible to increase the production of Tu-214 to 20 units per year. That’s how many must be produced each year to meet the plan to produce 115 such aircraft by 2030.
“Tu-214, together with its predecessor Tu-204, was produced for 30 years at two plants in Ulyanovsk and Kazan. The average production rate was three aircraft per year. That is, in 30 years they produced less than a hundred of them, and now in six years they promise to assemble more than a hundred in one plant. How this technological marvel will turn out is completely unclear to me. It is an antiquated aircraft that relies on technology from the last century, with very heavy manual labor. To produce Tu-214 at a rate of 20 units per year, it is necessary to increase the number of workers and equipment almost six times, and where all this will be found is completely unclear to me,” says Roman Gusarov. This year they promised to assemble three Tu-214s in Kazan, but not a single aircraft was delivered to customers. This year they promise to produce only five pieces.
“The design of the Tu-214 is outdated. In terms of safety, the aircraft meets all modern requirements, but in terms of efficiency, it is significantly inferior to both the MS-21 and its counterparts from Boeing and Airbus. It consumes more fuel and has an outdated avionics control system, the plane cannot be flown by two pilots, three are needed. That’s a big extra expense.
The need to expand the production of the Tu-214 was necessary in addition to the plans for the production of the MC-21, since these two aircraft operate in the same market segment (unlike the “Superjet”). The fact is that the demand for the latest MS-21 is higher than the plans for their production. As this is a completely new aircraft, it is impossible to reach an annual production of 72 aircraft overnight, it will take time. Airlines that will not receive the MC-21 in the next six years can order the Tu-214. But then these carriers will still switch to the more economical MS-21 and the Tushki will switch from commercial aviation back to state aviation,” says Gusarov.
Investing spare funds in serial production of aircraft is the best solution, Gusarov believes. “Investing in the real sector of the economy is the most efficient way to spend the money from the Welfare Fund that was just sitting there. The airline industry passes this money through itself and transfers it to other industries by placing orders from manufacturers of titanium products, electronics, etc. This money will come to the high-tech manufacturing sector, where private money does not want to go, because there are very long terms for project implementation and huge money is required and a very low percentage of revenue. It is easier for the private owner to invest in the food and alcohol trade, where the investment turnover is faster and the profit is higher. The state plays with a long perspective. If earlier we simply ordered planes abroad and paid 100 million dollars to the American economy, now we give money to our economy and finance the development of our own high technologies, thereby increasing our own budget revenues. Every aircraft produced means tens of thousands more jobs,” says Roman Gusarov.
Each ruble invested in the production of aircraft provides 10 rubles of additional activity in related sectors, and this is additional support for the entire industry of the country: instrument building, engine building, avionics, electronics, etc., the economist and former adviser said earlier of President Sergey Glazev.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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